Fair enough. But his shooting is abysmal and playing against kids two yrs younger than him makes it extremely hard to gauge where he's really at. I'm not saying whether or not he can be good, great or whatever, I'm saying that great athleticism doesn't make a player great. Could be fun to watch. Could be a major let down. But I get your point.
Sam Vecenie released his draft guide. A few profiles… Spoiler Has the following guys in Tier 4 “Starter/All-Star tool swings” 10. Dereck Lively II | C | Duke | Birthdate: Feb. 12, 2004 (Age: 19) | 7-1 | 230 LBS | Hometown: Philadelphia Parents are Dereck and Kathy Drysdale. Kathy played for Penn State from 1988 to 1992 and became a 1,000-point scorer on some of the best teams in school history, including the first to be ranked No. 1 in the country. She has been working on the business side in sports for years, first for the 76ers and now for Penn State in marketing. Dereck Sr. passed away when Dereck was young, and Kathy battled cancer. Lively emerged as a terrific prospect early, being seen as a strong four-star prospect by the end of his sophomore season. However, it was the summer after his junior season when Lively truly became one of the elite prospects in his class. He led Team Final to the Nike EYBL Peach Jam championship that summer by dominating the paint, blocking four shots per game and playing exceptionally hard every single game. Skyrocketed to the top of the consensus recruiting rankings follow- ing that showing and stayed near the top throughout his senior year. Averaged 14 points, 14 rebounds and nearly five blocks as a senior at Westtown High School and was named the Pennsylvania Gatorade Player of the Year in 2022. He was named to the McDonald’s All-American roster as well as to the Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic. Recruiting services considered him a consensus top-five recruit in the country, and he committed to Duke before his senior season over Penn State and Michi- gan. The season didn’t start out perfectly for Lively, as he started with a preseason calf injury that held him out of valuable time to get acclimated to his team. It took him a while to get going. But once he did, he soared. Lively earned All-Defense honors in the ACC and made the All-Freshman team. By the end of the year, was arguably the best defensive player in the country. Helped Duke go on an awesome late season run, including an incredibly dominant first round NCAA Tournament victory against Oral Roberts that he spearheaded on defense. Lost in the second round to Tennessee. Decided to declare for the 2023 NBA Draft after the season. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. Had a particularly standout pre-draft process, including a pro day that left scouts extremely interested with him. STRENGTHS It all starts with the size, which is immense even by NBA center standards. Lively is in the 7-foot-1 ballpark with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, which will be among the longest in the league. We didn’t get combine measurements to confirm that, but he looks giant out there. Has strong mobility and good lateral agility for his size. Solid explosiveness as a leaper. Not wildly impressive but enough to take full advantage of his length when high-pointing the basketball as a rebounder and rim runner. Beyond that, plays with a high-end motor. Works hard constantly. Never have to worry about him not trying to contest a shot or running the floor as hard as he can to open lanes for his teammates. The length comes into play best on the defensive end. By the end of the season, Lively was the best rim protector in college basketball and probably the most impactful overall defensive force. Over his last 18 games, he averaged three blocks in just 25 minutes per game. He completely shut down the paint to obscene levels for the Blue Devils. Per Pivot Analysis, when Lively was on the court in ACC play, the team was 8.2 points per 100 possessions better on defense than when he was off the court. The Blue Devils won Lively minutes by nearly 12 points per 100 possessions versus by only 3.3 points when he was off the court. From Jan. 28 onward, Duke won its minutes with Lively by nearly 18 points per 100 possessions, and its possessions with Lively, Kyle Filipowski and Tyrese Proctor by 22 points per 100 possessions. They were dominant in those situations. Opponents only shot 45.6 percent at the rim with Lively on the court in those situations versus 54.2 percent when he was off the court. Lively uses his length well around the rim. Extends his arms high. Has some mechanical flaws we’ll talk about below, but he contests almost everything if he’s within the area of the rim. Good as a help-side player. Has solid instincts and anticipation. Does a good job of knowing where he needs to be and how he needs to rotate. Also good in ball screens. Mobile and versatile in coverages. Duke played hedging schemes, flatter at the level schemes and drop schemes with Lively this past season, and he was solid across the board in space with some issues we’ll get to. Knows how to play the gap between the roller and the guard just by playing as big as possible in drop coverage. It’s genuinely hard to find teenagers this versatile in these settings, and Lively ticks all the boxes. Does a good job of walling up both ballhandlers and post players. Can get moved on the block but generally does a good job of staying in front and contesting. Offensively, he’s a superb lob threat every single time down the court. Runs the court out in transition to beat his man to the basket. Really good over large spaces. Has good hands when the ball is above his chest. Catches the ball and dunks fluidly on lobs with ease. Also has immense upside as a rim runner out of ball screens. Duke didn’t utilize him this way until the back half of the season, but he was useful once Proctor got acclimated to college hoops as a ball screen distributor. Having said that, right now, Lively is a bit better out of the dunker spot. Largely a two-foot leaper. Good at high pointing the ball on lobs and finishes at a high percentage. Being in the dunker spot also allows him to impact the offensive glass. He’s energetic and attacks the glass with his length well. He doesn’t quit on the ball. Averaged over two rebounds on the offensive end in 20 minutes per game.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Strength will be a factor for Lively early. His overall core strength could be improved. This will come with time as he gets older, but he’ll need to fight through that adversity early. Also, while I think his overall ball screen defense is solid enough, I do think his change of direction skill is not necessarily all that great. He has high hips, so it can be hard for him to turn different ways. Does have a frame that he should grow into well as he gets older to add the strength necessary for his rim protection to hit its potential. He’s an extremely limited player on offense. Doesn’t have any ability off the bounce at this stage of his development. Can’t create his own shot in any way. Will need everything created for him. Does open some driving lanes with his willingness to consistently rim run, which helps. And he finishes when a shot around the rim is created for him. But I don’t think I even feel comfortable with him dribbling the ball right now around any sort of traffic. Will need to really work on his ball control to become valuable as a dribble-handoff threat. Don’t feel great about him as a short-roll outlet player who can dribble and maintain the advantage for offenses in a four-on-three situation while defenses recover. Hasn’t showcased the ability to catch in the 15-foot-area, dribble once or twice and finish. Doesn’t turn the ball over but does end up kicking it back out to restart the offense regularly. Needs to become way more comfortable with the ball to not be a liability when he’s not involved in the primary action. Only averaged five points and one assist this past season. I don’t really love the mechanics on Lively’s shot. This has long been an area that gave Lively more upside than that typical rim- running five, but it hasn’t quite materialized to this point. Hasn’t ever made them at a high percentage despite a willingness to take them. Has a multi-motion jumper that sometimes includes a pull back toward his forehead after getting the ball into his shooting pocket. Doesn’t have a consistent release point. Sometimes he releases the ball too early; other times, he releases it too late while he’s on the way down. Made just two of his 13 3-point attempts this past season. With Team Final in 2021, he made just 31 percent from 3. There’s a chance he develops into a player who can hit a trailer 3 from the top of the key or corner catch-and- shoot 3s, but it’s going to take a lot of work. It’s a legitimate area of potential growth. Lively will have some mechanical flaws to work on defensively. In space, he is good in screens but not awesome when scrambling around after the initial screen defensive action. Think he is prone to being driven and attacked when he has to close back out to shooters who pick-and-pop him (or when he’s scrambling in help). Comes out onto shooters a bit high. Additionally, as a rim protector, it would be impossible to ignore his fouling. It improved throughout the season, but Lively had issues staying on the court. Averaged 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes. If you go into Lively’s body as a driver, he tends to bring his arms forward more often than he should. SUMMARY Lively has an immense number of tools that should make him an impactful NBA player. He’ll have elite size and length among centers. He moves well enough to be versatile defensively in different coverages. And his rim protection should be legitimate. He has strong anticipation around the basket, and he has strong timing for going up to swat shots. He’s just very limited on offense, and it’ll be incumbent upon him to work through that. Even more than the jumper, where Lively needs to improve is with his overall comfort making passing reads. If the jumper comes along, great. There is some real potential for that to happen, and if it does, he’ll be exceptionally valuable. But more than that, Lively needs to become a more fluid player and quicker processor of the game on that end of the court. But he’s such a strong defensive prospect with such good defensive tape late in the season that I think he’s worth a top-20 pick, and I have a lottery grade on him due to his upside on that end. If the offense comes along at all, he has a chance to be a top-10 center in the league. Even if it doesn’t, I buy him as a starter just through the defense and rim running. To me, that’s worth a lottery pick.
Spoiler 14. Cason Wallace | G | Kentucky | Birthdate: Nov. 7, 2003 (Age: 19) | 6-3 | 195 LBS | Hometown: Dallas BACKGROUND Parents are Kimberly and Mike. Brother is Keaton Wallace, a three-time All-Conference USA player at UTSA who plays profes- sionally in the G League. Cason has always been considered a high-level character person throughout his early basketball career. Quickly emerged in the Dallas area as an elite player. Went to Richardson High School, the same high school as his brother, and stayed there for all four years. Won freshman of the year in the area, then won his district’s defensive player of the year award as a sophomore. At that point, started to emerge on the national level as an elite prospect. Achieved four-star status that summer as a recruit, then five-star status midway through his junior year. Played in high school with Rylan Griffen, an interesting prospect at Alabama. Carried Richardson to a state tournament appearance for the second time ever as a junior, then led the school to a top-five national ranking as a senior before the team was upset in the Texas state playoffs. Was named All-Peach Jam before his senior season on the Nike EYBL circuit and truly emerged as one of the best players in his 2022 recruiting class that summer. Named Texas Gatorade Player of the Year after his senior season. Earned McDonald’s All-American and Nike Hoop Summit honors. Committed to Kentucky early in his senior year over offers from Tennessee, Texas and UTSA. Was good for Kentucky as a freshman, earning All-Freshman honors in the SEC. He also should have earned All-Defense honors but didn’t. Struggled with injuries at times throughout the year. Dealt with an ankle injury late in the season, in addition to a knee contusion and some back spasms. NBA teams are eager to learn more about his overall frame and some of the injuries he dealt with. Kentucky ended up losing to Kansas State in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. Wallace chose to declare for the 2023 NBA Draft with an agent. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS A terrific functional athlete with incredible anticipation. Great length with a legitimate plus-six wingspan that came in at nearly 6-foot-9. His 8-foot-5 standing reach will allow him to be switchable one through three when combined with his functional strength. Just extremely strong for a guard this size, especially through his lower half and core. Moreover though, plays with an elite motor. Never stops playing hard. Constantly aggressive. It’s probably a bit reductive, but Wallace just knows how to play. He has an exceptionally high basketball IQ and knows how to make winning plays that help teams both on and off the ball. That motor comes through best on defense. Wallace is a potential All-Defense guard in the NBA. There is not an aspect of defensive play in which he is not elite. I love his team defense most of all. His anticipation and rotational instincts are elite. He’s never out of position and is disruptive in how he attacks the ball. Averaged two steals per game and consistently used his active hands to get large numbers of deflections. Elite at locking and trailing his man around screens and does a great job of getting skinny over ball screens and frustrating his opponent. He consistently blows up dribble-handoff actions by getting his hands and body in between the big and ballhandler. Creates live-ball turnover plays leading to transition offense regularly. On the ball, Wallace is terrific. He plays bigger than his size at 6-foot-3 with shoes, largely because of his combination of quickness and strength. His lateral foot speed is very good, which allows him to stay in front of opposing players. But moreover, he’s extremely strong through his lower body and chest, which means it’s harder for bigger guys to body him up and power through him. He probably won’t be able to stand his ground against the elite power guards in the NBA like Luka Dončić, but he will be able to have some success against bigger wings who are in the 6-foot-7, 220-pound range. His hand-eye coordination causes all sorts of disruptive moments, and his hands are quite strong when he gets a piece of the ball and goes for a steal. I completely buy him as a difference-making defensive guard, and I think he’ll be that early in his career. Offensively, Wallace has some intriguing skills that fit well within a team concept. Essentially a combo guard at this point. The thing that will translate fastest will be his shooting. Wallace has developed into a good shooter over the years, hitting about 35 from 3. Made 35 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s, per Synergy. His volume isn’t particularly strong, but there is nothing in his mechanics to indicate issues in increasing that volume as he moves up levels. Extremely good directly off the catch. He takes his shots off the catch directly off the hop, loading up quickly and firing before the defense can get a strong contest. Given how quickly the shooting windows close in the NBA, this is a critical skill that will allow him to generate shots. He also knows how to move without the ball. Great at relocating around his teammates into open spaces. because he can handle the ball, he also can attack closeouts with ease and keep defenses in rotation. We’ll talk a bit about some concerns below, but Wallace is a comfortable ballhandler. Doesn’t get a ton of shots at the rim, but when he gets there, he makes them count. Made about 60 percent of his attempts at the rim in half-court settings this past season, a remarkably high number for a player on a team with egregiously bad spacing. Absorbs contact well and maintains his balance and touch. Also made quite a few interesting floaters and runners. Made 39 percent of those, but they show real potential as a midrange weapon. Wallace is also comfortable pulling up in the midrange. Per Synergy, took 57 such shots and made them at a 43.9 percent clip, an extremely good number for a teenage creator. Good at using a quick little inside-out dribble to force a defender back, then stop and pop. Can make them going both directions too. Critical skill for him is how this translates in addition to his long-distance jumper. As an offensive player, he’s almost unselfish to a fault at times. Passes up good shots regularly in the vein of trying to attack off the bounce to collapse defenders to make kickout passes. Wallace is a terrific processor of the game and regularly hits passing reads. Knows how to read the defense. Consistently will make the smart hit-ahead or extra pass to start or maintain the flow of the offense. Good at hitting cross-corner kickouts. Very accurate passer as well. Ball always seems to find its way to the shooting pocket. Averaged 4.3 assists per game and did so without necessarily being the primary point guard all the time for Kentucky. I buy him entirely as one of those guys who might not necessarily put up awesome counting stats but will probably help his team just through his presence on the court with his ability to dribble, pass, shoot and defend.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Wallace is not overly big at just 6-foot-2 1/2 without shoes. While his balance and quickness make him overall a positive athlete in the way that it bears itself out on the court, he does have some real explosiveness questions that end up causing some issues that we’ll discuss. He’s not all that explosive as a leaper, and his first step isn’t awesome. A lot of his missed shots at the rim end up being these weird underhand floaters where he tries to loft it up over a big. Doesn’t seem to have incredible hip flexibility, particularly when he’s on the ball. There is a question as to whether he might end up a bit stuck between positions in the NBA on offense. He’s not quite good enough with the ball yet to be a point guard, but he’s also not all that explosive of a scorer. Kentucky does not run a ton of pick-and-roll, and Wallace wasn’t really asked to be a playmaker and creator in NBA-like situations as a lead guard. Didn’t have NBA-like spacing and didn’t really have a rim runner next to him often. Was also more of a scorer than a passer or playmaker in high school. Don’t think he’s necessarily the most natural live-dribble passer. Most of his assists on drive-and-kicks come with two hands on the ball as opposed to those one-handed whip passes the best creators can make before passing windows close. Wallace has the unselfishness to develop this skill, and he sees the court well enough. He also has the hand strength to become a better one-handed live-dribble passer. But I’d like to see him do it before putting him at the lead guard spot regularly unless he’s playing next to a dominant on-ball wing or bigger creator. While I like Wallace’s scoring instincts, I also worry about Wallace as a self-creating scorer. I don’t think he separates all that well from his man. His handle is tight, and he rarely turns it over from ballhandling, but I don’t find it to be all that creative. Becomes a bit robotic when trying to string together three or four moves together in a chain. Would like to see more hip flexibility to change direction, but I’m not quite sure it’s there based on the college tape. There isn’t a ton of shiftiness. Doesn’t exactly have a bag of crossovers. I think that’s why, in general, his shot volume off pull-ups is not all that high. He also doesn’t seem to have the acceleration to blow by bigs or the shiftiness to get to his stepback against them. I worry you might just be able to switch his screens without any recourse. SUMMARY Wallace is one of those players I buy making it work as a high-end starter/rotation player at the next level. He’s great on defense, and he’s great in the ways that translate to just about any scheme. He’s switchable because he plays bigger than his size, but he’s also able to fight through screens, dribble handoffs and off-ball actions. His awareness and anticipation are elite skills that translate to any winning situation. He can also knock down shots at a high level, and he makes strong passing reads. These are all the skills NBA teams look for when trying to spot a complementary player who will thrive next to stars. You just wish, for Wallace’s skill set, that he was more in the 6-foot-6 range as opposed to just under 6-foot-3. While he plays bigger than his size, he is going to have some limitations against star level players on the wing. If the increased spacing of the NBA allows for Wallace to separate from his defender a bit more, he has some real upside to become a difference-making starter on great playoff teams. If not, he’ll settle in perfectly as a good complementary player.
Spoiler 16. Gradey Dick | W | Kansas | Birthdate: Nov. 29, 2003 (Age: 19) | 6-6 | 205 LBS | Hometown: Wichita, Kan. BACKGROUND Parents are Bart and Carmen. Carmen played basketball at Iowa State and was the school’s female athlete of the year in 1989. She went on to play basketball professionally. Bart played football at Fort Hayes State, a Division II school. Gradey has three older siblings and is the youngest. Sister, Kelsey, was a rower at Kansas. Both brothers, Riley and Brodey, went to Kansas. Gradey is one of those guys who is good at everything he’s done athletically. He won the Kansas City Chiefs Punt, Pass and Kick competition twice as a kid. Was an all-league baseball player as a freshman in 2019 before focusing on basketball. And was good at basketball immediately. Gradey’s mother was the person who developed him most. Was an all-league selection as a high school freshman at Wichita Collegiate before winning all-state honors and Gatorade Player of the Year in Kansas as a sophomore. Transferred to Midwest powerhouse Sunrise Christian Academy as a junior and played with 2022 NBA Draft picks Kendall Brown and Kennedy Chandler. Won a gold medal in the 3x3 U18 World Cup for the United States team that. Was among the most decorated players in college basketball as a senior. Won the Gatorade National Player of the Year award on his way to being named a McDonald’s All-American and a Nike Hoop Summit participant for Team USA. Was a consensus five-star recruit who committed to Kansas in his junior year of high school. Picked the Jayhawks over Iowa State and Baylor, but Kansas was always seen as the clear favorite. Throughout high school, Dick volunteered to a lot of different causes, including the Special Olympics, food pantries and shelters for homeless people. Was strong from the first game with the Jayhawks. He earned All-Freshman honors in the Big 12, in addi- tion to being named second-team All-Big 12. Helped Kansas to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament along with Jalen Wilson and Kevin McCullar. Team was eliminated in the second round by Arkansas. Dick declared for the 2023 NBA Draft following the season. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS Great size for a floor spacer at 6-foot-6 1/4 without shoes. Bigger than these types of players normally are. An underrated athlete. Won’t be an above-average athlete in the NBA but does have more pop than he gets credit for. Has some real question marks that we’ll address below, but he does play a very fluid game athletically. Great hand-eye coordination. Dick is terrific shooter. He brings more to the table, but that’s where everything starts. His entire offensive game is predicated upon how big of a weapon he is off the catch. Has an exceptionally smooth release and pristine mechanics that will translate well to any level. Balance is perfect on every shot. Almost perfect shot prep. Great weight transfer from his lower half to upper half. His release point is very high, which makes it harder to contest than the typical 6-8 shooter in shoes. On top of that, can get the ball off quickly. Doesn’t need to dip the ball off the catch to fire it from 3. All of this makes him very hard to close out on effectively. Made 37 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s this past season on great volume, taking about six per game. Moreover, Dick’s a versatile shooter. He hits shots off legitimate actions and off different footwork. Will hit them off the hop or on a one-two step. There isn’t a moment where he has the ball in his hands that he’s not capable of stopping and firing from 3 if you don’t stay attached to him. Can go behind a dribble handoff and make one, as well as get balanced quickly off the hop coming off a flare screen. Lethal in transition, where he will stop and fire from 25 feet. Has great instincts for finding open shots. Moves extremely well without the ball. Will hit them off one-dribble relocations or off relocating offensive rebounds. I think there’s a case that he’s a better pull-up shooter than a catch-and-shoot guy off those one- or two-dribble relocations or movements. Hit 53.5 percent of his 3s off the dribble this past season, per Synergy, most of which were in those kinds of settings. Knows how to space to help create lanes for his teammates. Understands the gravity of his floor spacing and how to best weaponize it. Additionally, he’s a sharp cutter. Has potential to be one of those guys who’s just constantly in motion on offense and was utilized that way at Kansas. Knows how to take advantage of defenders overplaying him and cut backdoor. Sets up defenders, then counters with quick moves. His sense of timing is superb on plays like this. Once he catches, he’s a terrific finisher. Shields the ball from defenders well and knows how to contort and adjust his body in midair to create angles to finish at the rim. Again, showcases great balance and focuses well on the rim in these circumstances. That tremendous touch translates here too. Made 58.7 percent of his half-court opportunities at the basket, per Synergy, a good number for a floor spacer who largely will be getting cutting opportunities or chances off hard closeouts. Not going to self-create much but does use the threat of the shot to attack closeouts and put pressure on defenders. Again, can finish at the rim in these circumstances. Will hit one- or two-dribble pull-ups from both midrange or from behind the 3-point line. If he gets an advantage on an out-of-control close, he’s going to take it. Must be so solid and consistent, or he will beat you. Also shines as a passer here. Really knows how to read defenders and find his open teammates on the move on his drives. Eyes flash both to cutters toward the rim and for kickouts to the 3-point line. Really high feel for the game and knows how to either make the one-touch quick read or how to draw defenders toward him to make the kickout to the open man. Only averaged 1.7 assists per game, but he knows how to move the ball within the construct of the offense. Per Pivot Analysis, Kansas scored 115.3 points per 100 possessions with Dick on the court and outscored its opponent by nearly 15 points. When he was off the court, Kansas only scored 98.6 points per 100 possessions and lost by six points per 100. No other player on Kansas saw greater than a five-point differential in terms of improving the team’s offense.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Dick doesn’t have overly long arms. His 8-foot-5 standing reach is not as big as his height would indicate. He is an underrated athlete and better in this regard than some traditional floor spacers he’ll be compared to such as Duncan Robinson, Kevin Huerter and Max Strus. But he’s not an above-average athlete on the wing in the NBA, and where he lacks right now is in the strength department. The intersection of average-ish athleticism, below-average length and below-average strength will be a real problem he has to fix at the next level. A lot of these issues result in real defensive worries for scouts. Dick has moments when he’s OK, and he got better throughout his freshman season at using angles and being aware of his help-side responsibilities. He is competitive and wants to be able to handle his workload on this end. His hands are good, and he has good anticipation for getting into passing lanes. He took a lot of charges by getting himself into solid spots. Still, he has a real chance to be a player who gets hunted in the NBA defensively by bigger on-ball creators. He’s not strong enough right now to hold up in those situations on an island. Players go through his chest and power him to the rim even when he has good position. His feet are OK, and he generally does a good job of getting in the way against college competition, but bigger NBA wings have potential to cause him a lot of issues by putting their shoulder into him and using deceleration steps. Despite being 6-foot-8, he doesn’t get his length in the way all that often and seems to give quite a bit of extra space to compensate for his average lateral quickness so that he doesn’t get blown by. Additionally, he struggles to fight through screens right now. Gets clipped often. Recovers fine when he gets beat in isolation but doesn’t seem to have as much recovery ability in ball screen situations. There also seem to be a lot of breakdowns involving him in actions when communication is involved and an exchange has to take place. With Dick’s size and fluid feet, I think he has potential to fix up some of these worries as he gets stronger. But he will likely struggle on an NBA court early. Dick does not really project as a shot creator off the bounce in terms of creating his own advantages. Seems to be a two-dribbles- and-pass guy right now. It doesn’t project to be his role necessarily, and he’ll be successful on offense with or without it. But it would be helpful for him if he could run second-side ball screens or create an advantage on his own off the bounce to collapse defenders as opposed to someone else needing to create the advantage for him by collapsing the defense and getting him into a good spot where he has a defender closing out on him. To do this, he’d need to do some real work on his handle in terms of changing directions and speed. It would be a surprise to see him reach the level where he is a second-side option as a creator. That limits his upside a bit unless he essentially turns into Klay Thompson as an off-ball weapon in the right offense. SUMMARY Dick seems like one of the safest bets we’ve seen in a while to be a genuinely good floor spacer in the NBA. His shooting mechanics, basketball IQ and overall comfort level as a player who can score without needing the ball in his hands constantly projects extremely well toward the NBA, regardless of situation. He can play in a ball-movement-heavy scheme or in a heliocentric scheme where one player dominates the ball. Guys like this who can create their offense simply by moving without the ball and finding dead spaces in the defense are often worth their weight in gold on offense if they can convert 3s. Even if he’s not the one making shots, he has to be guarded, which opens space for everyone else. The defense must improve. There are signs he could get to an adequate level in time, but there are significant flaws that could crater his game on that end if things don’t go right. The offensive game has potential to be so positive in how it impacts his team that he has to be taken somewhere in the top 20. If the defense breaks right, he could be seen as something of a steal if he ends up being near the end of the lottery. Being able to hold his own on defense would make him a starter in the NBA. But there are some improvement areas he needs to work through before he reaches that level.
Spoiler Has the following guys in Tier 5 “Rotation players and upside swings” 17. Kris Murray | W/F | Iowa | Birthdate: Aug. 19, 2000 (Age: 22) | 6-8 | 215 LBS | Hometown: Cedar Rapids, Iowa Parents are Michelle and Kenyon. Kenyon was an extremely high-level player, winning Mr. Basketball in Michigan before becom- ing a four-year starter at Iowa in the 1990s. Kris’ twin brother is Keegan Murray, who made the NBA All-Rookie Team this past season after being the No. 4 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. Physically, the only difference between the two on the court is that Kris is a lefty and Keegan is a righty. Kris is named after Kenyon’s former teammate at Iowa, Chris Street, who died in a car accident in 1993. Much like his brother, Kris was a late bloomer. He averaged nearly 20 points and six rebounds in his senior season at Prairie High School in Cedar Rapids and earned second-team All-State honors. But Kris didn’t receive anything beyond low-ma- jor offers, so he decided to do a post-graduate year at DME Academy in Daytona, Fla. Played well enough there to earn an offer to attend Iowa with his brother. While Keegan developed into a terrific sixth man and then a National Player of the Year candidate, Kris took a bit of a longer trajectory. He was a pure bench player as a sophomore, getting limited minutes while he adjusted to college. As a sophomore, he shared the team’s Most Improved Player award and took real strides while developing into a strong bench option. Declared for the 2022 NBA Draft but decided to return. Then he took an enormous leap as a junior, much like Kee- gan did the season before. Kris led Iowa back to the NCAA Tournament, where they lost to Auburn in the first round. Murray was a first-team All-Big Ten selection who was about as productive a player as you’ll find in college basketball. Declared for the 2023 NBA Draft after the season. Was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS Murray has terrific size for the wing position at 6-foot-7 3/4 without shoes, 215 pounds. Has a near 7-foot wingspan and a terrific 8-foot-10 standing reach that will allow him to play either the three or four with ease. He has a strong intersection of power and athleticism for his size, and he’s capable of covering ground quickly and finishing through contact at a high level. Plays with long strides that allow him to get the rim faster than you expect. Good leaper. Has a strong frame and plays with a low center of gravity and consistently works hard. Solid on the glass on both ends because of that motor, strength and size. Has some grab- and-go game where he’ll attack if he sees a mismatch and can get all the way to the bucket. The idea here is similar to his brother, although Kris’ overall upside is lower than Keegan’s. The main similarity between the two of them is that they just don’t make mistakes. They stay within themselves and know their own games. The goal here is a bigger 3-and-D wing/forward. Murray hit 33.5 percent from 3 this past season. He has very simple mechanics, and it all starts with his shot prep. Murray is ready to catch and fire immediately upon receiving the ball, with a good base, ready to step into the shot. Great lower-half engagement and has a very clean release. Has a good chance to shoot off spot-ups long term, although I have some questions we’ll explore later in terms of its consistency. Murray uses the threat of the shot to be an effective driver off the catch. Everything is very direct. If someone closes out heavily, he’ll put the ball into his left hand and get all the way to the rim using those long strides. Very good in a straight line because of it. Loves to go to the Euro step move at the rim. But he also can drive with his right hand and get back to his left with a quick spin. Spin is effective because he gets lower than most players, which gives him power and leverage. He turns some of them into post- ups, which were effective this past season. Don’t see the post-up being a big part of his NBA repertoire, but it showcased how impressive Murray’s overall touch inside of 8 feet is. Made 59.1 percent of the shots he attempted this past season out of post-ups, a great number for a wing. In total, one of the best finishers at the rim in this class. Made 66.1 percent of his total attempts at the rim, per Synergy, but also made 63.3 percent of his half-court attempts. That’s an awesome number for a bigger wing. Gets to the rim faster than you expect. He’s a quick jumper who elevates rapidly and has good touch at the rim when he gets there. Throws up some awesome left-handed finishes high off the glass. Does a great job using his frame to protect the ball and give himself a clean pathway at the rim. Initiates contact with his shoulder to create separation from his defender. Also seems to find at least one bucket per game off a smart cut. Has a good understanding of dead areas in the defense and finding the right timing to beat rim protectors to the basket. Murray does a great job of bodying up against wings and forwards defensively. That on-ball defense is an area in which Kris is ahead of Keegan right now. Kris is not necessarily a contact initiator, but he stays in front using his body and keeps his chest in front. Slides his feet well. Good flexibility to drop his hips and recover when necessary. It’s very hard to go through him in those situations because of how strong he is. He’s awesome contesting shots because of his length. Does a good job on threes and fours but also defends guards well for his size in space. Has switchability and won’t be someone opposing teams can target in the playoffs. Uses his length exceedingly well. I also think Kris’ team defense is solid. Fights threw off-ball actions at a high level. Exceedingly good at getting around screens for someone his size, which isn’t all that normal. Constantly in position rotationally. Very available as a weakside rim protector. Blocked 1.2 shots per game, a mix of which were on-ball as a primary defender and rotating across the play from the weak side at the basket. Also think he’s sharp at digs and good at jumping passing lanes. Averaged one steal per game. I buy Murray entirely on defense and think he’s going to be impactful and effective. He won’t be an All-Defense guy, but he will help you.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Murray has real size and strength and moves fluidly but doesn’t quite get as much out of his athleticism offensively as Keegan did. Plays very square to the rim. Allows him to maintain his balance and center of gravity, which is good, but he doesn’t change directions that well. He isn’t quite as twitchy as Keegan and doesn’t have as much explosiveness or an awesome first step. Smoother and plays with power but needs to get a head of steam to rise. The shooting is not quite as versatile as Keegan’s was last year either (let alone what Keegan has developed into with the Kings). I’m a bit worried about Kris’ shooting. Everything for Kris is a bit slower. Instead of taking shots off the hop, he’s largely one-two stepping into them and really taking a minute to gather and load. Can take them off the hop but doesn’t do it as often. Extremely square to the basket. Might be a bit of an adjustment to the next level in this regard with how quickly shooting windows close. I think he’s likely to be more of a spot-up guy. But he needs to prove the shot will fall. Made only 33.5 percent of his catch-and- shoot 3s this past season. That’s not an ideal number for someone who will be relied upon to hit them, especially given that he’s not making them off much movement. This is probably the swing skill that will determine Murray’s value. Murray is not really a shot creator for himself and is not all that effective in ball screens. Has a very ineffective pull-up game, in large part because of how squared off he plays. Made just 30 percent of his pull-up jumpers, per Synergy. Has very little shake with the ball. He’s not going to break down guys off the bounce at a high level in isolation. Doesn’t turn it over and stays within himself but is limited in attacking off the bounce. Doesn’t really have the ability right now to realign himself in midair and tends to play off one foot as opposed to two feet. Pull-ups look a bit off balance and mechanical. Has some bad misses in these settings. He’s not an awesome passer either. Made more high-level ones this past season than Keegan did the year before, particularly from a standstill. This won’t necessarily be his role, but when he was centralized this past season, he did tend to miss open players to take contested shots. Again, part of this is what he was responsible for at Iowa as the primary scorer. But he will need to keep improving his vision and willingness to make passes, particularly on the move when attacking closeouts. Needs to keep his eyes up as opposed to on the rim. SUMMARY Murray projects as a solid rotation player in the NBA, the kind of guy who could give teams real lineup flexibility depending on what they’re trying to do. He can play the three or four at 6-foot-8, which will allow teams to shift between playing big or playing smaller. He’s just a bit more limited than his brother Keegan as a shot creator, which makes him more likely to be something in the ballpark of a sixth or seventh man with starter upside as opposed to Keegan, who was a starter long term who had top- 50 player upside. Kris is a bit stiffer through the hips and doesn’t have a great handle, and his overall load-up and footwork take a split second longer to get into, which means he may be less of a movement shooter than Keegan. The shooting is the big differentiator here. Keegan was a good one with real projectability and off-movement potential; Kris is a stiffer shooter who is more inconsistent and will likely be confined to spot-ups. The swing skill is how much that shooting from a standstill develops. If he can knock them down at a 38 percent clip, he can be a potential fifth starter. If he can’t, he’ll be more of a rotation player. But Murray seems like a safe bet in that regard, which is why I have him in the top 20. Finding guys this big who can defend in space and have potential to shoot isn’t all that easy.
Spoiler 19. Brice Sensabaugh | W | Ohio State | Birthdate: Oct. 30, 2003 (Age: 19) | 6-6 | 235 LBS | Hometown: Orlando, Fla. BACKGROUND Parents are Keisa and Bryant. The Sensabaugh family is loaded with athletes. Chose Ohio State in part because he has several family members in the Columbus area, including his grandfather. Also has an uncle who played college basketball at Eastern Kentucky. Brice had a choppy career in high school filled with ups and downs, which led to him being under-ranked. Attended Lake Highland Prep in Orlando and was his team’s leading scorer as a sophomore, but he tore his meniscus in the final game of that season. Played very little summer basketball and then decided to get it repaired with surgery, which held him out of his entire COVID-19 shortened junior season. Play with Each 1 Teach 1 on the AAU circuit in the summer and exploded as a recruit. Went from an unranked player to a four-star recruit quickly, with offers all over the country. Continued to assert himself as one of the best players in the class, winning the Florida Mr. Basketball award as a senior, as well as the Gatorade Player of the Year award. Led his team to the state semifinals. However, he was only seen as a top-75 recruit in the 2021 class, largely because of his late emergence. Chose Ohio State over Alabama, Georgia Tech and Florida. Quickly became clear Sensabaugh wasn’t just under-ranked; he was a potential one-and-done player. Was arguably the best combination of high volume and efficiency this past season among the freshman class. It just didn’t lead to many wins as Ohio State struggled, particularly on defense. The team went 16-19 and finished outside of the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Sensabaugh struggled a bit late in the season with a knee injury. Given his history of knee injuries, NBA teams have been eager throughout the pre-draft process to learn more about any potential long-term concerns. At the end of the season, Sensabaugh made the Big Ten All-Freshman team. He decided to declare for the 2023 NBA Draft and was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS Sensabaugh has an interesting build at 6-foot-6. Looks more like a large football player than a basketball player at 235 pounds. However, he possesses traits that translate strongly to the basketball court. He isn’t an explosive vertical athlete, but he gets off the ground quickly, and his body control is terrific. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that he is physically strong and rarely gets knocked off his line as a driver. He’s a functional athlete by NBA standards, although not an outright above average one. The primary skill here is Sensabaugh’s shot making. He is a terrific shooter and scorer and was one of the most prolific scorers in the country this past season, averaging over 16 points while shooting terrific marks across the court. He’s a genuine potential three-level scoring threat, which is very difficult to find. Sensabaugh hit 40.5 percent from 3 this past season on nearly five attempts per game, with pristine mechanics that look translatable to success long term. Can take them off the hop or the one- two step and has very clean rhythm coming up from his lower half to create strong weight transfer to his upper half. It’s a quiet shot without much extra movement and more of a set shot without a ton of elevation. There’s a very slight pause at the load point, but his touch is elite, and the shot works for him. Made a ridiculous 44.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s this past season, per Synergy, and made about the same percentage guarded tightly as he did when unguarded. Once the threat of his shot is established, he’ll attack off the bounce. He’s best out of spot-ups because of that right now. A dangerous triple-threat player. Loves the right-foot jab step into a left-hand pound-dribble stepback to find the 3-point line. Has real relocation ability off the bounce on pull-ups. But he can also isolate defenders that he’ll string out into space too. He can string moves together one after another against mismatches due to his body control and power combination. Guys largely will just bounce off him. If you don’t square your chest to his body, he will displace you as a ballhandler. He often doesn’t need to dance to get his separation. He’ll just put his shoulder into someone and move them to create space for a little fadeaway. His handle is tight and has suddenness to it because of how well he decelerates athletically. It allowed him to get to his spots with greater ease than you’d expect from freshmen. Capable of getting a midrange jumper with reasonable efficiency at almost any time. He’ll go with crossovers into between-the-legs moves with ease, with the ability to gather into stepbacks with real balance. Will spin directly into shots in fadeaways from 8 to 15 feet. His footwork is terrific. Because he’s so smart about playing off two feet and playing on-balance, Sensabaugh is a constant threat to pull-up from the midrange. His ball pickup is clean, and he can get into it from any angle. He’ll fade to his right or left, turning or spinning over either shoulder. Can rise wrong-footed and align himself midair. Some shots look DeMar DeRozan-esque purely in terms of aesthetics. Scored more points off midrange jumpers within 17 feet per game than all but one high-major player in the country. Overall, he made 52.6 percent of his nearly 100 pull-up midrange jumpers this past season, a wild number for a teenager and among the best I’ve seen in a decade of doing this job.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Sensabaugh’s lack of explosion is a hindrance. More than anything, it impacts him as a finisher. He’s a below-the-rim player mostly. Despite his power, he had just a 53.1 true shooting percentage in his attempts at the rim in the half court this past season, a below-average number that must improve. He also doesn’t get to the rim that often. You can make a case that the Big Ten makes that harder because the league is filled with giants, but his lack of burst also feeds into this. He tends to live off a diet of short floaters and jumpers in the paint. His touch is good enough to make a high percentage of those shots, but those are inherently more inefficient shots than buckets at the rim for good players. Needs to work through his final step footwork to find angles to get around rim protectors at the basket to create easier shots. Sensabaugh is one of the worst team defenders in this draft class, and his overall awareness and understanding of defensive schemes is a real problem. Largely, that is because he is an egregious ball watcher. He doesn’t get where he needs to be because he seems to fall asleep. Loses track of his man way too often, to the point that it became a bit difficult to keep him on the court in important moments for the Buckeyes. Gets back cut regularly. As a weakside defender, he often gets caught in no-man’s land where he’s sunk too deep into the lane and gets hit with a kickout, which forces a heavy closeout. Again, with how much he struggles to change direction, this is an issue. Leads to a lot of out-of-control closeouts. The good news is that he seems to have good timing on digs to the ball, but he probably helps same side a bit too often and puts himself out of position. He struggles with any sort of advanced exchange on or off the ball. Freshmen typically struggle here, but Sensabaugh’s issues were a bit more commonplace than you see normally for such a skilled player. On the ball, he doesn’t get enough out of his tools. Generally has very poor technique. Rarely squares his chest up to drivers and gets powered through more often than someone as strong as him should. Gets caught on a lot of screens because he’s very square and heavy. You also see his lack of explosiveness on defense too. If Sensabaugh has to change directions at all, he struggles. Not all that impactful in recovery because of this. Finally, Sensabaugh shows some flashes as a passer, but they’re often counteracted by off-target reads that result in turnovers. Sensabaugh posted a one to two assist-to-turnover ratio that won’t be good enough in the NBA. He throws some wild ones at times. Because scoring seems to be his first, second and third plan, he often doesn’t seem to read the court simultaneously to find his teammates while hunting for his shots. While he’s a terrific shot creator in the midrange, he does often take difficult shots at the expense of passing up open 3-point opportunities in kickouts to teammates. He needs to see the floor a bit better and use his vision more often. SUMMARY Sensabaugh is one of the toughest players to evaluate in this year’s class. On one hand, he does the most important thing a player can do in the NBA at a hyper-elite level, and that is get buckets. He gets them in a variety of ways from a ton of different angles. On top of that, he has elite touch and is a terrific catch-and-shoot player, giving him a higher floor as an offensive player. His upside is that of top-three scoring option at some point. The problem is that, to reach that ceiling, he’ll need to be able to stay on the court defensively. He needs to get lighter on his feet and needs to continue fixing his defensive technique on the ball while also continuing to improve his instincts and rotational awareness off it. There is a lot of work to be done there, and it’s not just going to be a one-season project. If you believe there is some potential to thin out his frame and add that necessary quickness, it’s possible you’ll have Sensabaugh a bit higher on your board. If you think you can teach him to defend, he should be a top-12 pick. The downside is that he’s a solid bench wing you have to hide defensively but who shoots and can occasionally create shots. The upside is top-three scorer on a good team. This is purely a philosophy pick. If you value bucket getters and think you can teach them everything else, then you value Sensabaugh. If you value higher IQ players with defensive intangibles, you probably will look elsewhere.
Spoiler 20. Dariq Whitehead | W | Duke | Birthdate: Aug. 1, 2004 (Age: 18) | 6-6 | 220 LBS | Hometown: Newark, N.J. BACKGROUND Parents are Derrick and Quadira. Has four siblings, including a brother, Tahir, who played in the NFL for eight years. Also had an uncle, Willie, who played in the NFL. Hard to overemphasize how impressive Whitehead’s prep career was. Arguably the most accomplished player in the country in his class. Was identified very early as a prospect. Was invited to the USA Basketball junior national team minicamp in 2018 before his freshman season at Montverde Academy, the prestigious high school he attended for all his high school career. Was invited to USA Basketball’s junior national team minicamp again after his freshman season. Was on the loaded high school teams with Cade Cunningham, Moses Moody, Precious Achiuwa, Caleb Houstan and Scottie Barnes as a freshman and a sophomore. As a junior, he emerged more while playing next to guys like Houstan, Jalen Duren, Jalen Hood-Schifino, DaRon Holmes II and Ryan Nembhard. With that team as a junior, he helped lead the team to the GEICO National Championship. As a senior, he became the best player on the team, averaging 16 points next to Reneau, Dillon Mitchell and Kwame Evans and more. Again, he led the team to the GEICO National Championship and was handsomely decorated for his results. Won the Naismith High School Player of the Year, the Gatorade Player of the Year in Florida, Sports Illustrated’s Player of the Year and Mr. Basketball USA awards. He was named to the McDonald’s All-American team, the Nike Hoop Summit USA roster and the Jordan Brand Classic. Also won the McDonald’s All-American Game MVP award, scoring 13 points, grabbing seven rebounds and dishing out seven assists. Was a five-star recruit and a consensus top-three player in the class in rankings. Com- mitted to Duke in August before his senior season, choosing the Blue Devils over Florida State, Kansas and professional options. Injured the fifth metatarsal bone in his right foot in August. Because of that, he missed a large portion of the preseason and the first three games of Duke’s season. He returned but didn’t quite look like himself athletically. In January, he suffered a lower leg strain that looked worse than it was and missed another four games. Just wasn’t as impactful as anticipated. In June, he had an- other surgery to repair that fifth metatarsal injury that did not heal properly the first time. Teams are desperate to find out more information about Whitehead’s injury and how much it held him back this past season – as well as the long-term projection on how it will heal. Declared for the 2023 NBA Draft with all this information and was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS Whitehead has a great frame at nearly 6-foot-6 without shoes with a 6-foot-10 1/4 wingspan and a strong 220-pound body. Has a solid 6-foot-9 wingspan. Difficult to gauge his athleticism after the foot injury. In high school, he showed some real vertical pop off one foot. I thought he got off the ground quickly more than elite in terms of vertical height. Sometimes, that can be more valuable. Not a wild athlete, but a good one who looked about 20 pounds lighter but still combined some real power and force with that bit of pop. Was also extremely aggressive in high school. He looked like a different player at Duke than he was at Montverde in terms of burst and explosiveness. Was a legit isolation creator there, and he just didn’t have that pop this past season. Whitehead is a terrific shooter, and there’s every reason to buy him as a catch-and-shoot threat. Made nearly 43 percent from 3 this past season, including a 45.3 percent mark off the catch. Takes them directly off the hop with great shot prep. Always ready to fire. Looks a bit weird in that he has a bit of an extra loop in the motion between his ball dip and his shooter’s pocket and a very slight pause at the top but is excellent at getting the ball back into his perfect shooter’s pocket with great elbow alignment and has a very clean release and follow-through. In part, that’s because he has a very slight turn to the left in his hips as he fires. It’s not necessarily exactly how you would “teach” a shot, but it’s also a shot that has no real mechanical holes because of how good his balance is and how he gets himself into alignment. He’s also very good as a lateral mover into shots. Does a great job of sliding around the perimeter and keeping his shot prep in alignment. Relocates super well. Does a great job of drifting into places behind the 3-point line with his ballhandlers and drivers, opening easier passing angles for kickout 3s. Sees when his defenders turn their head and creates separation from them by sliding along the 3-point line. That he did this with a foot injury that didn’t heal properly throughout the season is even more impressive. I think Whitehead’s pull-up game is also effective. He made 36 percent of his pull-up 3s this past season, an exceedingly strong number for an 18-year-old. Showcased some ability to beat defenders who went under dribble handoffs and pick-and-rolls with 3s. Showcased some potential to hit side-step, stepback 3s. High release point and follow-through creates a high trajectory that allows him to shoot over the top of late closeouts. His balance really shows up on his pull-up drives. Made about 40 percent of his pull-up 2-pointers. Has the ability to stop and pop on drives as well as the ability to spin into them. In high school, he also elevated into little push shots and paint pull-ups, increasing an already high release point. Was more ground-bound this past season, so it all comes down to your evaluation on the foot and if you think you can get that athleticism back. The upside for him to be a very high-level two-level scorer as a shooter from 3 and from the midrange is there if you think he will recover well from the injury. Whitehead was a solid on-ball defender when matched up with guys who were a similar size on an island one-on-one. Great technique sliding to stay in front of guys in these circumstances. Very hard to blow through his core and chest. Very strong if he beats these guys to the spot. Good at keeping his hands high and making sure he contests shots and makes them tough. Has his defensive warts, and we’ll talk about some of his quickness issues below, but given that he was playing below 100 percent, he seems to have real potential at least on the ball against players where he can be physical.
Spoiler WEAKNESSES Whitehead looked like a below-average athlete this past season. He looked much heavier in college than he did in high school, on top of having the foot injury. There are real contextual factors as to why that is. But the tape is the tape at Duke, and he struggled to vertically explode this past season. Had zero first step or burst and not shake. Everything was in a straight line. He also wasn’t an impactful rebounder despite size and strength. He has genuine excuses for that being the case, but that doesn’t change that these issues existed. Teams will need to figure out how realistic it is following this injury that he can get back to the levels we saw in high school, where Whitehead was a good athlete but far from an elite one by NBA standards. Whitehead really struggled to finish in the paint at Duke. He smoked a lot of layups in a way that makes you think he was adjusting to not having as much lift off the ground, especially given that he is a player who has real touch. Also, he had no upward explosion, which meant that everything was a layup. Was a significant load leaper too. Didn’t see an impressive one- foot finish with strong footwork sequencing to create an open angle. Almost always tried to load up off two feet. Needs to really work on his footwork around the rim. Creates some moments where it seems like he’s out of control. Made for a lot of difficult attempts at the basket because he couldn’t separate or create strong angles to the basket around rim protectors. Attempted just one shot at the basket per game in the half court this past season. The numbers were dreadful. Made just 43.8 percent of his shots at the rim, per Synergy. Only got to the line once per game and had 29 free-throw attempts in 577 minutes. He also was generally too focused on scoring. Seemed to never have his eyes up on drives looking to make passing reads for his teammates. Had a couple of decent cross-court skips and threw a couple of interesting pocket passes, but I wouldn’t say there was much impressive in this respect. Due to his lack of burst, he was very rarely collapsing defenders. Didn’t feel like any of his assists came from him manipulating defenders in help. Had 27 assists versus 39 turnovers this past season. Was a bit better in high school but wouldn’t say passing and making reads was a strength for him when creating in isolation and forcing help. While I buy Whitehead as a shooter and see no reason he won’t be a strong NBA shooter off the catch, he did make just five of 20 shots from behind NBA 3-point line distance. Also, we didn’t see him coming off many screening actions at Duke to prove that he can be a movement shooter in any other circumstance beyond relocations behind the 3-point line. He went 3-of-13 off screens this past season, per Synergy. He probably has the skill to do it, but again, he wasn’t all that shifty and struggled to separate from defenders with any sort of speed. I didn’t love his overall defensive impact at Duke. While he was solid on-ball against wings and fours, guards could really blow by him. Anything that needed some twitch, Whitehead really struggled. Guys with quick first steps could blow by him before he could get his first stride off or open his hips to cut off the player. I thought his closeouts were very poor because of the change of direction required. He also really struggled to get through screens. It felt like he got clipped on nearly every on-ball screen. Was the king of the peel switch where he got beat and had to call out for the big to take over responsibility for his man entirely. His team defense left a lot to be desired as well. Really struggled a lot to chase in off-ball screening actions. That was probably the worst part of his defensive tape. He was kind of a magnet for contact on these screens. This results in a lot of scramble closeouts that are difficult to recover from. Or, he simply wouldn’t get around them and it would lead to a wide-open shot. How much of this had to do with reduced twitch due to the foot injury? Again, an impossible question for teams to answer based off the information that they currently possess. Also felt like he was a bit late rotationally at Duke, and there seemed to be a lot of defensive breakdowns when Whitehead and a teammate had to communicate through an action. I’m a little more willing to chalk that issue up to being a freshman who also didn’t get a full preseason not necessarily having a lot of synergy or defensive chemistry with teammates. SUMMARY In every single regard, Whitehead is a bet. What he put on tape this past season in totality does not resemble that of a first- round pick. He was a great shooter but was largely deficient in every other aspect of the game. He was a below-average defender, rebounder and passer. He struggled to separate from his man. However, you can point to his foot injury and the late season lower leg injury as contextual factors that hindered him from having any chance to succeed. There is a legitimate case for throwing out the entire 2022-23 season and going back to dive into the high school tape to try to better determine who Whitehead is as a player, even though he was facing worse competition. Whitehead is a player for whom scouts will be working with incomplete information. There isn’t really any way to know for sure exactly how much athleticism Whitehead will be able to regain following this second foot surgery. On top of that, I’m not sure we know for sure what Whitehead looks like as a player even if you do add his previous levels of athleticism. The team that selects Whitehead will be betting on his foot getting back to 100 percent, allowing him to get back to his high school levels of twitch. Medical staffs and team trainers will undeniably be involved in the process, letting decision-makers know how they feel about him. The best you can do is gather all the information and make an informed decision. The good news for Whitehead is that teams always need shooting and size on the wing. And a big input into that informed bet that teams make will be, “If Whitehead hits, what can he become?” And in his case, the value of the role he’d play will always be high if he can get to a reasonable level athletically on defense. I think that’s worth a late- first-round flier. But I am working with less information on his medicals than teams are. And that means the range of potential outcomes for Whitehead both on draft night and as a long-term NBA player is about as wide as possible.
Spoiler 25. Jett Howard | W | Michigan | Birthdate: Sept. 14, 2003 (Age: 19) | 6-7 | 215 LBS | Hometown: Miami Parents are Jenine and Juwan. Juwan was Jett’s head coach at Michigan and member of the legendary Fab Five team at Michigan as a player who went on to a 19-year NBA career while making one All-NBA team and winning two championships. Unsurprisingly, Jett has a few brothers who are excellent players too. Juwan Jr. played Division I hoops at Detroit Mercy, made two All-Horizon League teams and went on to play professionally overseas. Josh was a starter at Brown in the Ivy League. Jace was Jett’s teammate at Michigan as a backup wing. Also has a sister, Starr, who played lacrosse at Clemson and William & Mary. Jett was identified relatively early as a very interesting prospect. He started his high school career at Florida powerhouse University School in 2018 and was a valuable rotation player for a state title team. Was immediately a 40 percent 3-point shooter playing for a terrific team in high school. Transferred to IMG Academy for his final two years. Numbers didn’t look outrageous there, but he was playing on a loaded team with guys like Jarace Walker, Moussa Diabaté, Jaden Bradley and Keyonte George. They made the national semifinals in both of his seasons. Was named to Jordan Brand Classic and participated at the Iverson Classic. Was named co-MVP of the Iverson Classic along with George. Jett was seen as a top-50 recruit in the country and was a clear four-star guy. He seemed to legitimately consider other schools within his recruitment. His finalist list included NC State, Tennessee and Georgetown before deciding to play for his father at Michigan, which seems to have been a very good choice. For a large portion of the season, Howard was Michigan’s top perimeter option, and he started out extremely hot. Averaged 15.5 points and shot 39 percent from 3 in his first 16 games. But over his last 13 games, he averaged just 12.6 points and shot drastical- ly worse as Big Ten play heated up. Suffered a right ankle injury that forced him to miss a couple of games in late February, but his drop in production started before then. Came back for Michigan’s final three regular-season games, including a loss in the Big Ten tournament to Rutgers. The Wolverines were one of the most disappointing teams in the country this past season. Alas, Howard declared for the 2023 NBA Draft fully. He was invited to the 2023 NBA Draft Combine. STRENGTHS Howard did not measure at the combine. But he has great size for what his role will be in the NBA. Will be in the 6-foot-6 to 6-foot-7 range or so without shoes. On top of that, Howard’s offensive game looks tailor made for the right NBA system that knows how to use him. The shooting is the base skill the rest of his game is built around. Made 40 percent from 3 as a freshman in high school, 37 percent as a sophomore, 43.9 percent as a junior and 41.7 percent as a senior (the last two years, according to Synergy). It’s hard to find players this big with this kind of extensive track record of making shots at an elite level from that young of an age. From a scouting perspective, that lines up. Everything with Howard’s shot is pristine and pure. It’s a beautiful one-motion jumper with perfect rhythm and weight transfer off the catch. Shot prep is perfect. He’s always lined up with his feet set and ready to fire quickly off the catch. Has his base underneath him and can take them both off the hop or off the one-two step. Very quick release. Gets them off in a rapid way that will be immediately translatable to NBA success. Balance is superb and has a very high release point. Also is starting to develop the ability to not have to dip the ball before shooting, another critical skill with how quickly NBA defenders close out. All of this makes him a very serious weapon coming off off-ball screening actions. Michigan ran him in a ton of zoom dribble-handoff actions, flare screens and pindowns. He’s adept in all these situations. Flies around and is excellent at getting his feet set quickly and firing with balance. Made 39 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s this past season, per Synergy, a terrific number given the volume he took and the degree of difficulty on some of them. Has real comfort with putting the ball on the ground and knocking down shots. If opposing teams run him off the line, he can hit one-dribble pull-ups from the midrange or relocation one-dribble 3s. Will stop and pop from a variety of different footwork – can plant first with his right then step in with his left or can just hop into a pull-up 3. Makes it hard for defenders to get his timing down when trying to contest and allows him to get cleaner looks. Can also hit stepbacks going to both his right or his left off a quick move. More importantly, Howard has become a legitimate weapon out of ball screens and dribble handoffs as a self- creating shooter. Legitimate multi-level scorer from 3 and from the midrange. If you go under his ball screen or catch him flying up for a dribble handoff, it’s curtains. He’ll rise and fire. Michigan did a great job of getting him the ball going downhill toward his right off those zoom actions. The Wolverines optimized his strengths and minimized his weaknesses in that way. Even if he doesn’t get separation, he still has that release point to shoot over the top often. Can also realign his body in midair off spin moves or fadeaways. Has a burgeoning little runner/floater game and a real variety of ways to rise both from the midrange and from 3. Overall, made 52.9 percent of his midrange pull-ups this past season, per Synergy, which is a ridiculous number given how many of them were contested. He’s also a solid passer. Not great but solid. Sees the court extremely well in ball screen and dribble-handoff actions. Really good at getting downhill, drawing the big defender or help defender toward him and finding the roll man or the man in the dunker spot. Will occasionally look outward and find kickouts. Draws the weakside defender and can hit the chest pass kickout. Finds that corner man regularly by getting to the middle of the floor. It’s also worth noting that he’s good at understanding how the attention he gets as a shooter opens things for his teammates. Makes quick reads that way too. He processes the game super well and makes the right play.
