Case to Draft Taylor Hendricks (Trade Down if Possible)

So I've seen you share this a few times, so figured I'd chime in a bit.

Didn't they have him off ball because the team was mostly a bunch of small guards (outside of Ausar and a few others)? I pointed this out elsewhere, but OTE kinda built out these team in a weird way. Threw in a bunch of (smallish) guards, which I think forced Amen and Ausar to play more wing/big roles. I guess they could have pushed him on-ball, but then you'd have some small guy having to protect the rim (or guard a big). I have to rewatch the game, so maybe all of this is wrong, but that is one thing that caught my eye from the bit I watched and what I noticed about the roster.

I don't strongly disagree with some of your other assessments per se. I don't think he was terrible, but sure I think he should have played better.

 

You are talking about when he played Omaha, and no he did not have a great game.

He followed it up with 4-5 good games against professional teams in Europe.

I agree his shot from the perimeter is bad, but I don't agree that his entire game is in transition, he scores in the half court set and sets up players well. Part of his appeal is that he can score in tight spaces, and he is also exceptional as a cutter.

He is a very good natural passer.

His appeal FWIW isn't his first step as much as it is that he can get around the corner very well and has excellent body control around the basket.

As far as a defender, Amen Thompson is a very good defender when he focuses on defense. He is nearly 6'6"barefooted, has a 7'0" wingspan, moves very well side to side and has fluid hips. He has every physical attribute needed to be a top defender.

I am very seldom definitive about a prospect, but I have no concerns about his ability to defend at a high level in the NBA, I have no concerns about his ability to pass at a high level in the NBA, finish at a high level in transition and in the half court..... the only real concern I have is his ability to shoot. He doesn't have to become a good three point shooter even, he just has to have a spot in the middle of the half court where he can shoot 40% on pull ups.

There are just as many questions about Cam Whitmore as there are about Amen Thompson.

 

Right, the Pistons were the exception as noted. I think if the Heat win, maybe you can throw them in as well, even though I think Jimmy is *very* good.

I do think a few guys available at #4 have top 10-15 potential, and I don't think that's a crazy take (I think guys like Vecenie, Spinella, etc., generally share that opinion). But sure, if you don't have that same evaluation, then I understand a different approach.

Personally, I think you look to free agency and trades when attempting to deal with defense, shooting, etc. Honestly, a vet will probably be better than most rookies that project to be good shooters/defenders. Of course, you can do both, but yeah I don't look to solve that with the draft per se, especially if you want more immediate results.

 

I thought the Pistons won a title without a star as well, but if you look at some of the advanced stats for Chauncey Billips, he was a star. His closest WS comparisons are Steph Curry and Dwayne Wade. He had two seasons that were in the top 100 ever in NBA history for W/S.

The Rockets need a foundation to build around, and that is a franchise player. The Rockets lack a franchise player and there is no one on the roster that appears to be headed in that direction.

 

Sengun.

 

I would argue Butler is a franchise player - he is like Walt Frazier, Chauncey Billips and Chris Paul.

They are easy to overlook because defense is a big part of their equation.

This year, Butler is second in the NBA in W/S%.

 

Chauncey and Rip had that dynamic back court going for them.

 

I don't see it, at least not on both ends of the floor.

I think he is capable of being a close to elite offensive player, especially after his outside shot improves and he is surrounded by better teammates.

I don't think he will ever be an even average defender.

 

Nobody must doubt @Medicine N Music - he has proven that he knows his stuff. Recommended our two best defenders - Alpi and Tari. One of them is our franchise player, the other one will be the best hustle player in the NBA.

Taylor Hendricks all the way!

 

Even you can be wrong sometimes.

 

Yeah I think he's fantastic. Just not sure he's necessarily in that tier of other guys I listed (IMO neither is CP3, Frazier, etc).

This is a list where like Dirk, KG, and healthy Kawhi are probably the worst players on the list. I was thinking he was closer to the Billups tier (albeit probably better) than this other tier, but it is all pretty nebulous and open for debate.

Overall point is that...you need a *really* skilled top guy to win a NBA championship. And I'm not sure we have that yet.

 

edit…just looked and saw he’s at 7 feet for the wingspan

 

I agree with all of that except for his ability to finish at the rim in the half court setting. I feel like half of his layup attempts at the rim are awkward/difficult up and unders. Most of the misses are because he's trying some low percentage acrobatic shot.

If I think of players that are great finishers around the rim historically, they are typically masters of finding the right angle for simple layups. Harden made a career doing a simple left handed fingeroll that no one can stop.

 

He measured 6'5.5" and had a wingspan of 7'0" at the combine.

I expected he would measure a 6'9" wingspan, but he grew 3 inches on his wingspan since last year when it was measured.

I was also dubious of his vertical (everyone lies) but there is video if him jumping with a vertical at that range.

He went from 204 LBS to 215 LBS as well....... he has broad shoulders and thick thighs, I expect him to be in the 230 range in a couple of years.

 

I guess I'd like to think that the team as assembled with the inclusion of Udoka will have more direction and accountability. I think the pieces fit, but they will require the proper glue players. I'd rather they come via the draft so that you could ideally have a young nucleus that might have a dynasty feel to it where they could grow together and compliment one another for years. I agree that if this team was contending you could find a defender or a shooter via FA (although this years FA class is subpar to say the least). Himmy Buckets was just Jimmy Butler from Tomball before he blew up. The ebb and flow of young players morphing into stars is routine for all professional sports and we just dont know who the next batch of 'stars' will be, but I'd put even odds at one of our current young guys getting there.

 

I watched that game yesterday and they are actually running a soft zone where the twins are funneling their man into the paint defender while cutting off passing lanes and attempting steals. It looks like terrible defense but its clearly a scheme.

 

He struggled finishing layups at the rim to start the season, but finished very well, especially against international competition.

Will he be great finishing layups at the rim in the NBA? I don't know if he will be great - but I am confident he will be very good at it. The spacing he had was terrible, he started slow before finishing strong.

The deeper I dive into his game and numbers- the more it all comes down to his ability to shoot. I can find numbers that show that his passing and handle have greatly improved, that his defense is very good when he prioritizes it --- what I cannot really defend is his outside and mid range shooting. It wasn't good. He shot 17% on contested jumpers. He shoot sub 30% on 3's. He did hit jumpers in transition but he didn't take a lot of them.

Ultimately, I feel with his rare package of skills - that he only needs to be passable as a shooter, and only at certain spots on the floor. He can be a Hall of Famer with never shooting over 30% from 3 if he gets a 10 footer that he hits 40-45% of the time.

With his ability, his margin for error is just really high.

I really think a lot of fans don't realize how physically gifted he is - from his size, wingspan, the way he is starting to add muscle, to his vertical, body control and ability to stop and then accelerate - and as a passer.

He is far from a guarantee and his weakness (shooting) is a genuine concern, but he has a real chance to be very special.

 

Very true - I have been wrong on a number of things.

 

While we're on this topic, a side note for @AroundTheWorld :

I get the impression that you think Amen Thompson is a bad fit with Sengun, but I don't really agree with that long-term. In the long-term both of them need to become at least adequate shooters to stay on the court. If they do meet that basic requirement, I think they fit great together. Amen's athleticism will make him an amazing cutter and roll man alongside Sengun, and each of them having elite passing abilities will help set up the other's rim pressure and punish offenses who sell out to stop either of them.

Amen also perfectly fits that Denver mold of "Jokic isn't a great defender? Surround him with long, tall, athletic defenders everywhere else". So on the defensive end, he's the perfect complement to a Sengun-centered team.

In the context of this upcoming season, yes, they fit poorly together, but that's short-term thinking. They both have to learn to shoot anyway.

 

People are saying, Portland loves Amen? If Amen is drafted before our pick we have choice between Brandon and Ausar?