Of course they would but that doesn't mean Brown can't counter. Every team will start with Gilbert for any player. Bieber only has 1 year of control left which makes him more affordable, and the drop off from Gilbert to the next couple of OF in the system is not drastic enough to end the talks. Add that to Bieber's reduced metrics and a package of a top 2-3 prospect and 2 other top 10 and a lottery ticket may get it done. Their choice of Melton or Barber along with Dirden, Arrighetti, and Dubin? Dubin feels like a guy their pitching factory may feel they can alter a bit and turn him into a leverage reliever.
One problem with Bieber, after this weekend we got Cleveland back into the post season race. They are only 1.5 games back of Minnesota for the division. They won't be sellers.
That is a concern but it reduces his cost, and his spin is his biggest advantage. And he still has that. All MLB hitters can. Hit velocity. Look back - this feels exactly like the discussion about getting Verlander.
I think Bieber is a long shot because I don't see Cleveland selling and I don't think we will be willing to give up the load you are suggesting for a short term contract. I'd love to get him though.
If the dropoff isn't much, the Astros should be willing to include Gilbert. Besides for Gilbert, the Astros have a bunch of maybes in the minors (all prospects are maybes, but Gilbert is much less one than the others on the farm). I suspect the Astros won't deal Gilbert which will hamper their ability to get someone like Bieber.
Gilbert is by far our best prospect. There is a big drop-off, even though I think our other prospects are underrated.
I agree on the first part. I suspect quite a few of the Astros prospects are under-rated and some are over-rated. The problem with the under-rated prospects is that other teams don't know which ones will be good and more importantly for teams regarding willingness to trade with the Astros, which ones will be good without the Astros development system.
That is a concern but it reduces his cost, and his spin is his biggest advantage. And he still has that. All MLB hitters can. Hit velocity. Look back - this feels exactly like the discussion about getting Verlander. https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...-justin-verlander.284808/reply?quote=11275046 "worse" https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...xt=He's even pitching-,worse,-than Mike Fiers "then" https://bbs.clutchfans.net/threads/...:text=form this season...-,then,-it does make
....you do realize Shane Bieber has been an uber-elite pitcher the past five years, right? 2.95 FIP and 148 ERA+ between 2019 and 2022. He's had a rough start to 2023 (his Ks are way down) - but even in a "down" season, he'd easily be the Astros 2nd or 3rd best starter. Like, yes - he can absolutely help this team. He would be tremendous acquisition, and significantly better than Giolito and Stroman. And that was true before yesterday. Bieber is the t***.
We are a half game up on Toronto for the final playoff spot Cleveland is 1.5 games out in their division Our playoff situations aren’t that different. Wonder how many Guardian fans are talking about sending Will Brennan here for Framber
The Guardian fans I know never speculate on deals that would add salary. They fear things like Bieber being traded for prospects.
Cleveland is much more like Milwaukee ( who traded Hader last year despite being in a playoff race) than Houston. The Guardians have tried and failed to work out an extension, a la Jose Ramirez, with Bieber. They are in a financial situation where they need to balance getting as much time but also max value for star players who won't extend before they leave for FA. They also have had 9 pitchers start games this year, and have SP prospects ranked #17 and #58. Both are ranked higher than Hunter Brown and very close if not already MLB ready. They have pitching depth and all the professional guesses are predicting he gets traded
Agreed. I remember that team was pretty down when nothing happened at the actual trade deadline (Verlander was part of the waiver deadline that no longer exists). Rotation was also hurting. Keuchel was very vocal about it. It did impact Crane/Luhnow to kick the tires again on JV…and even then it was down to the last second of the deadline when the trade actually went through.
Biebers velocity and peripherals have absolutely tanked. His xFIP and xERA are comfortably over 4 and he's simply not missing bats. Even his FIP, which is his most optimistic number is at 3.82. He of course looked awesome against our AAAA lineup yesterday (which really helped his numbers), but in reality he is likely our 4th best starter. I'm not even confident he will be noticeably better than Urquidy.
The 2022 World Champion Astros were 36-23 through June 11, 2022. The 2023 version is 37-29 having lost Justin Verlander (7-2 through June 11, 2022), Urquidy (8-4 through June 11, 2022), Luis Garcia (8-5 through June 11, 2022) and Altuve (missed 45 games). Proclaiming that this years version isn't at "previous levels" is... silly? We're currently down 3 starters (combined 23 wins through June 11, 2022) and lost a former MVP for almost two months. The 2023 team has managed to stay competitive though, and certainly has a championship core and pedigree.
I DO remember complaining about this last year too. But last year, the team felt superior but simply not playing well. But it looked and felt complete and formidable. This year it just feels like somethings missing. And the injuries clearly are a major part of that, but must still be resolved via return of health or acquisition/promotion.
