I'm surprised they are down on Dezenzo given his elite power. Also surprised to see them list Arrighetti as a SIRP...not even deserving of MIRP status!
Their knock on Dezenzo was centered around issues with plate coverage, but thru almost 50 pa in AA he has a 15% k rate; I find it hard to believe he is making that much contact with any glaring weakness. Like Loperfido was a few weeks ago, to me Dezenzo is about 100 pa away from being a Top 100 type of prospect in my eyes. If he gets to >150 AA pa and his k rate is below 20%, that combined with his power potential and likelihood to carry decent defensive value at 3B/1B (and corner OF if needed) will make him a very valuable high ceiling prospect. Loperfido cooled off over the last couple weeks and now his AA k rate is above 25%, a mark which puts some shade on his ceiling. We’ll see if the same happens to Dezenzo.
I think I saw a tweet from DeVos' dad that he was hitting 95 every now and again one start. I think the Tamarez velo has to be some kind of mistake. They kept referencing his arm strength in the blurb, and he averaged 96 and hit 98 in his last start. Abel Mercedes is apparently throwing upper 90s on the complex too. The Astros haven't had a ton of success with their super hard throwers, and last year's draft they mentioned a specific effort to target guys that throw strikes. I was ready for Dezenzo to be next on the list from the Loperfido blurb, and was pretty surprised to see him that low. I'm sure if he gets traded he'll all of a sudden jump 2 grades like Enmanuel Valdez last year.
One thing about Clifford. He had a pretty horrific first series in high A, striking out 10 times in 5 games. In the 17 games since, he is slashing. 269/.342/.597 with roughly average strikeout (22.4%) and walk (7.9%) rates. His swinging strike rate at Asheville (including the first week) is 10.5%, which is pretty solid. This is not to say that he won't have hit tool concerns going forward, but his high A numbers are skewed by some initial struggles, and aren't really that bad for a teenage power hitter. He's easily on track to start 2024 in AA as a 20 year old, which is very promising. #20 prospect Esmil Valencia, who my phone wants to call email, delivered his first HR of his career in DSL.
In complex-league action, Esmil Valencia hit his first pro home run for the DSL Orange team. Valencia signed for $900K on January 15.
One thing I’d wondered about and never researched until just now is how attending FCL games works. Best I can tell, admission is free to those games. Sounds like it would be a very cool vacation to go to the complex and spend a couple days watching the kids play ball.
Santos and Victorino both turned in three solid innings in their season debuts. Santos - H, unearned run, 3 BB, 4 K Victorino - H, 4 K Kenni Gomez went 2-4 with an RBI double and an RBI single as the FCL squad beat the Mets 8-2.
Melton had similar swing and miss concerns at the beginning of the year but on the season he's at an acceptable rate now with a lot of walks. Had a decent May, need him to build and get in his groove and bring the average up.
Just noticed Shay Whitcomb wasn’t mentioned anywhere at all in the fangraphs article. That’s kind of crazy.
After a rough early going, Click's signings are looking better and better. It's hopefully only a matter of time until Dezenzo makes a big jump to the 50 FV tier with the adjustments he has made.
Luhnow prospects have been top 5 in ROY voting for at least the 5 years. The pitching depth was amazing and is still very good.
At this point no one that doesn’t closely follow the Astros farm system should really grade it. I know that sounds absurd but the Astros have proven that they just develop players differently and not on the time table most organizations do…. Valdez, Javier were never top prospects. Garcia was with some…. But that’s the only top 100 guy… Urquidy wasn’t …. France wasn’t either. Hell I sat behind home plate and watched France and wasn’t impressed - and then heard hitters say how his hand is deceptive and hard to pick up the ball…. and Bielak has been solid… Hunter Brown wasn’t a prospect until in the system awhile. I will say this - I had someone in Houston say the Sugar Land is very hard for pitchers. So if a guy has success there it Carrie’s over - it has for France and Brown so far.
How is trading for a rental going to dig a bigger hole? The Astros need to maximize the window they have now. They don’t need to be desperate of foolish…. But trading for guys like Bellinger, Soler, Barlow and others shouldn’t deplete the minor league system.
Another Baez HR today in the FCL. That’s 4 HR in his 1st 24 pa. If he goes another 3-4 weeks without cooling off then he should prolly move up to Fayetteville. Gomez sat out the last 2 games.
We have 3 guys on the ML roster that never where considered ready pitching prospects and they are doing fine. I don't believe in windows. In my opinion running a team like there is no tomorrow because you are trying to take advantage of some illusory moment in time always disrupts future opportunities. When I was a child my fathers job required that we move every couple of years. Constant upheaval for all involved was the result. After a while I decided to live as if I would be in the place that I was in forever. Suddenly everything was easier. I found that I was making better decisions and that those better decisions followed me wherever I went. I applied the same philosophy to all aspects of life. In business my long term plans directed me to the right short term decisions that had to be made. I could give you a thousand examples but all I am trying to do is explain how I arrived at my viewpoint. I understand the Astros need to maximize the window they have now argument. I simply do not agree with it.
