I have not broken down the OPS into OBP and SLG, but the problem isn't HOW MANY hitters the Astros have with low OPS, it's who those players are. Of the 9 players with the most PA, 3 of them have low OPS (OPS+ <100). Abreu, Julks, and Maldonado. Again, we can disregard Maldy whether we are happy with him or not because he us a catcher. Catcher's simply rarely have good hitting numbers. But Abreu and Julks both play defensive positions that require little defensive ability, there are tons of other options, and there is no excuse for playing a weak hitter.
League average OBP is about 0.320. Pena, Chas, and Meyers are above average for slugging and easily make up for slightly below average OBPs. Diaz is a small sample and I expect it would be fine with a week of consistent PAs (the power is looking great). There are only 3 guys on the team that are hurting the team regarding OBP that aren't making it up with slugging, and two of those could be replaced at manager's discretion.
Looking at wRC+ the Astros have 9 hitters at 99 or better. The problem is that 2 of them are Dubon and Diaz who are not starters Abreu (52) and Julks (80) in positions where run production is expected and needed is the biggest problem.
The Astros are not going to be sellers. Their pythagorean has them at 38-24. The problem has not been the problem. The bullpen and starting pitching is not going to be perfect but it is certainly good enough. I am sure that the Astros will try and likely add a starter or pen arm. However, the overwhelming problem is the offense. Consider that the Astros currently have the following OBP in their lineup regularly: 283 (Maldonado), 273 (Abreu), 277 (Julks), 306 (Pena), 283 (Diaz), 316 (McCormick), 326 (Meyers), 330 Dubon The only players really getting on base often are Alvarez (390) and Altuve (355). Tucker and Bregman are in the middle around 340's You cannot consistently score when you have 4 players in the line up most night with an average OBP of like 295. When you have a player with a low OBP they need to hit for a really high average (like Dubon if he is over 305 BA) or hit for an extreme power level. Pena is a SS, a Gold Glove caliber one, so he is understandable - even Maldonado to an extent is understandable as a catcher. The other ones really are not......... Tucker and Bregman will likely get their OBP over 350 and that will help, but that isn't enough. The Astros need at least one very good overall bat added, and possibly two. I know Abreu is expensive with high upside, but he may need to start losing at bats - and there is ZERO excuse for Julks to be starting, and really the Astros cannot have three order positions that are defensive first motivated (catcher/SS/CF) unless everyone else is hitting.
Catcher? Very low. They would likely make Diaz the starter if something happens to Maldonado. I don't think they really need to fix catcher if they fix other holes, they have won a lot with Maldonado. They can upgrade a number of ways. They are pretty weak at LF and 1st, and could potentially even improve at CF. Right now they are rolling out a 1st baseman with an OPS+ of like 50 and playing Julks with one that is 85. They can certainly fix the Astros, and I think they will attempt to do so. Brown will not allow Baker to play Abreu and Julks past the deadline unless they rapidly improve. The improvement for example from Julks to Verdugo is massive, and even more so from Abreu to another solid 1st baseman. I imagine the appeal of someone like Bellinger is that he can play CF, 1st or LF depending on who doesn't improve. The Astros can realistically add nearly 100 points in OPS+ with two moves.
I would think they could flip Abreau to DH for awhile let Diaz play 1B. Then try and add the players they wanna add to bolster up the lineup. This could be a vacuum after that Lee can come up and Catch aswell.
wRC+ splits. vs LHP Chas 176 Yordan 167 Tucker 155 Dubon 153 Meyers 145 Maldy 130 Pena 104 Julks 80 Hensley 78 Bregman 69 Abreu 52 Altuve 6 (12 PA) Diaz -8 Salazar. -100 vs RHP Yordan 164 Altuve 141 Diaz 136 Bregman 128 Meyers 105 Chas 101 Tucker 98 Pena 96 Dubon 94 Julks 86 Abreu 52 Maldy 49 Salazar 25 Hensley -18 First impressions: 1) Meyers and Chas are top 6 in both, should play everday. 2) Diaz vs RHP and Maldy vs LHP form a natural platoon. 3) Abreu needs to play much less but there is no really obvious player to sub for him unless Dubon can play 1B.
99 isn't good enough if you want to win a WS. You can have a couple guys like that at the bottom of the line up, but that is it.
If Maldy, Abreu, Dubon, and Julks all start a game vs a RHP then you have your worst 4 hitters all starting. - wait that just happened Tuesday and they lost 5-1
I agree but it's not tragic either, especially if it's an important defensive position and there are some well over 99. 6 of the 9 are over 110
The problem is how many of them we are talking about........ Pena, Chas, Meyers...... you cannot have that and also have a catcher and LF and 1st baseman that cannot hit and be a top offense. Guys like Pena and Chas/Meyers are supposed to be the bottom of the line up, not the heart. Personally I would go hard at Bellinger and Soler. Bellinger can play CF if Abreu starts hitting or Brantley comes back - If Abreu doesn't hit, he can play 1st - if Brantley doesn't come back and Abreu hits - he can play LF. Soler would just be a DH for me, but he has massive power and a strong OPS+ Dubon can even play center if for some reason Meyers and Chas are struggling.
If you add Soler and Bellinger - it really opens up options. You could even have a line up of: Dubon Altuve Bregman Alvarez Tucker Bellinger Soler Pena Maldonado/Diaz
Chas is an above average bat in LF. Meyers is an above average bat in CF. Pena is an above average bat at SS. Bregman is an above average bat at 3B. Altuve/Dubon combined have been an above average bat at 2B. Alvarez has been an extrordianrily great bat at DH/LF. Tucker has been an above average bat in RF. Abreu is absolutely the worst fulltime bat at 1B. Maldy is the 3rd worst catcher. Julks is a well below average LF/DH. The Astros offensive problem lies with 3 players playing a lot as everyone else that has over 100 PAs is above average at their position. The Astros have 2 guys that can plug 2 of those 3 holes right now and the Astros offense would likely be a Top 6 or 7 offense provided Alvarez is healthy. The Astros have been choosing to be an almost average offensive team so they can play Abreu, Julks ,and Maldy.
People sayings it's understandable that you have a catcher that's a bad hitter...but you have a catcher on this very team that would likely be a top 5 hitting catcher in all of baseball if given the opportunity. Diaz has the chance to be a multi time all star. Other teams would be salivating to stick him in their lineups. He could be this years Adley Rutschman in terms of solidifying the lineup. It does wonders for a lineup when you take s position that people don't expect to produce offensively and then start having that position produce. It lessens the pressure up and down the lineup and makes everything work so much better. They have the guy sitting right there on the bench. It's crazy. You think Bruce Bochy was worried about what 35 year old Bengie Molina thought when Buster Posey came up? If Diaz were to be reranked at this point, he would be a top 25 prospect in all of baseball if he still had prospect eligibility. He's obviously the guy. Just use him.
Honest question, would you have benched Abreu for good or slashed his playing time in half after 1 month of the season? I know everybody is using the Beltran 2017 comparison… but Beltran was 4 years older (And IIRC, had some injuries that year which sort of organically cut into his playing time while he was struggling). They’re certainly at the point of the season where they have to consider decreasing it… or get him to confess for sure that he’s hiding an injury.
It would be gradual at first. Diaz would be playing at least 2 out of every 3 games for at least 3 weeks now taking PAs from Abreu and Maldy. So even now, Abreu would probably be playing about 50% of the time. I would say after a month, I would be trying several guys at 1st defensively in practice. Maldy and Julks's time would have been drastically reduced that 1st month.
So be it. It’s all hindsight anyways. I do think track records and career numbers matter… even in older players (or else everybody would be leery about acquiring Perez). And I’m sure Dusty has managed his fair share of slow starters, and what they had to do to get back to their career numbers. Inevitably, the answer is to continue to play them… but drop them in the order some (which Dusty was seemingly doing… till he decided to go back to the random OF rotation and tried to get him better looks with batting guys behind him).
Except Julks would not have been in LF and Diaz would be at catcher. I do not possess cloning technology.
So everybody agrees 1B and C are the biggest offensive issues. Would solve a lot of problems if we had a hot hitting prospect trained at those 2 positions. I look forward to Brown working to upgrade all these position that aren't actually major problems because our offensively limp C is etched in stone.
