There’s also teams with an even worse situation who need to try and win now (Mets, padres). given how the Phillies and other underachieving teams have rode the second half wave to playoff success, I don’t see a lot of teams waiving the white flag like some posters here are suggesting the Astros do. Whoever wants to overpay the Royals might as well do it now.
Brewers get: OF Kyle Tucker OF Zach Daniels $1M Astros get: OF Jackson Chourio RHP Jacob Misiorowski 2B Eric Brown Jr. SS Robert Moore Brewers add a multiyear superstar to deepen their lineup in prep to take advantage of the Cardinals down year. They get a lesser prospect to replace the elite OF prospect they’re giving up. Astros deal from their strength (OF) to add one of the 5 best prospects in baseball and 3 very high ceiling top round picks. It’s a single trade rebuild. The Astros aren’t winning the World Series without a fully healthy Yordan Alvarez, period. If he’s out more than 6 weeks, the season is toast.
they’re not going to sell. Even if he’s out for a little bit. worst case scenario is they don’t add… sorta like 2016. But there’s even more avenues to make the playoffs than there was then. They don’t have that hard of a road…. But they need more frontline starting pitching to win it all again.
We are absolutely loaded with OF prospects. That would be a horrible trade. People are crazy thinking we should trade Tucker with a hundred games left in the season. That is an incredible panicky move.
I’m assuming Alvarez is out for long enough to dramatically reduce the odds of Houston winning this season. Of course this is something that would only be good if Houston gets to the deadline and is completely out (8+ games?) of the division race. Houston has excellent farm depth in the OF, but “absolutely loaded” is a bit of an overstatement; they have exactly 1 elite OF prospect. Also, if this is a “horrible trade”, it’s horrible for Milwaukee, because Chourio is that good of a prospect. I highly doubt they would do this deal even tho from my own perspective, it’s roughly fair given the expected sellers market.
I really respect your opinion, but I’m not trading Tucker for any prospect over the next couple of years. He is critical to us competing. I was lumping Myers and McCormick in the outfield depth. Maybe I’m drinking the kool-aid but I’m pretty high on others than just Gilbert. Barber, Melton, Clifford, Loperfido, Dirden, Leon. Seems really deep to me.
I like all those prospects too, but the elite elite guys have so much more value. I don’t think Milwaukee would accept a 5-for-1 trade of Barber/Melton/Clifford/Dirden/Leon for Chourio. I agree Tucker is a key piece and critical to Houston’s chances of winning another World Series in the short term. So I wouldn’t trade him for peanuts. But I believe the new competitive landscape will reward teams who are agile and proactive each season. Trading Tucker likely means spending some significant money in the offseason to fill the hole in the lineup, especially if Gilbert doesn’t come up ready to hit at an elite level. But to add a prospect package like I listed, it would be worth it if this season really is lost (I’m not saying it is…yet).
Fair enough. Luhow said it long ago that the goal for this organization was to be competitive for decades not a few years. That philosophy does require that we let vets walk or trade them (Correa, Springer, Yuli) and be flexible. I still hold out hope that we can extend Tucker who is critical to our short term success, but could also be one of the pillars of our teams, much like Altuve and Bregman have become. Only the Astros and Tucker really know if it is a possibility, so I’ll leave it up to them. I liked the Dana Brown signing, but I thought getting rid of Click was an emotional decision, not a rational one. I’m afraid trading Tucker this year is also more of an emotional than rational. Trading Tucker for prospects lessens our chance to be competitive this year and next at a minimum which is a no-go for me, but you could be right and depending on what’s behind the scenes might be the way to go.
I actually think trading Tucker might be one of the options we should consider. Not for prospects, but breaking up his likely high trade value into multiple lesser players to fill holes. Slide Chaz and a platoon partner into RF, and add a pure bat at LF/DH. A lot has gone wrong this season(and more importantly last offseason) something dramatic like that might need to be done if we don't get some good news over the next month.
Its probably being considered more because he hasn’t put up an all-star like season thus far (let alone the expected “MVP” one…) In essence, selling low on him would be pretty panicky. If he was performing to expectations, the season would probably be 1-3 games better… and doubtful people have the same desire. Having 2 more full seasons of him after this one is still significant. They could also trade him this off season or next season with possibly higher returns if his performance improves.
And we control him the next two years still The ONLY way Tucker would be moved would be in a star for stat type of deal and those trades are extremely rare in mlb There is zero chance we start tearing it down and trade stars for prospects. The thought of doing so is silly
I like to think I am a pretty optimistic person and fan. I don't usually get too down after losses, but these 3 hurt. 3 days ago, I thought that the Astros were still the favorite to win the AL West. I expected Jose Abreu to come around for the second half even if his season long numbers end up bad. I expected Lance to come in like last year and start 5-10 games and be healthy for the playoffs. I expected the veteran star nature of the lineup to come through and allow for Maldy to start 75% of the time and still have a top 10 offense. I thought the "upstart" Rangers would start to show the inexperience and regression and fall back and Astros would take advantage of it. I no longer think those things. There is a reason why teams don't repeat or even make the LCS multiple seasons in a row. This is baseball, the sport where anything can happen over a marathon 162 game season, no 2 or 3 stars can carry a team, and even the best teams win less than 70% of games. The season is not lost, but I am seeing the writing on the wall. This team is much more like the 2020 team than any of the other recent Astros teams. They can not keep the status quo until the trade deadline. 40-50% of the rotation is made up of minor leaguers. They have done admirably, but to keep winning games they pitch, this team needs to score 5+ runs consistently. That means that the lineup can't have 4-6 below league average run producers in it and still expect to win. Until this team can and does score 5+ runs consistently, then guys like Abreu, Maldy, and Julks need very reduced roles. Obviously only 4 guys can sit any given game, but even good players like Pena, Dubon, (and even Meyers and Chas to an extent) are defense first guys and need better hitters around them for the team to win. If this does happen soon, I'm afraid it's going to be fighting for a wild card and very real possibility the LCS streak ends.
To be fair, that poster is admittedly biased towards the minor league system, prospect watching/ranking, and player development in general… so from that perspective, any way to “revamp” the farm system would likely involve the trade of a current star. I just think selling now on Tucker, with that much control left, is only something a very small market/out of contention GM would do (Pirates/Gerrit Cole)… and even then, wouldn’t do it when his performance was below his career norms.
I think that Tucker needs to be traded before he hits free agency. But not before next years trade deadline at the earliest, and only for players that have a very high probability of helping the team immediately. That means established star level players or only the very best prospects that are MLB ready. If the team is not equal or better the hour after the trade, then it can't happen.
I doubt Tucker has lost very much trade value this season, it's not like he's been terrible, just disappointing. Trading him might be a very good way to improve the team's outcome in the medium-term especially since it's highly unlikely he's here after 2025. I doubt it happens though unless Yordan is out for multiple months and the season is kaput.
The Astros should be contenders in 2024 and 2025. Unless Alvarez injury turns fatal, the Astros should not consider trading Tucker unless another team is offering something like Trout and Ohtani. Even then, the Angels would probably have to kick in some money.
The Astros are not going to be sellers. Their pythagorean has them at 38-24. The problem has not been the problem. The bullpen and starting pitching is not going to be perfect but it is certainly good enough. I am sure that the Astros will try and likely add a starter or pen arm. However, the overwhelming problem is the offense. Consider that the Astros currently have the following OBP in their lineup regularly: 283 (Maldonado), 273 (Abreu), 277 (Julks), 306 (Pena), 283 (Diaz), 316 (McCormick), 326 (Meyers), 330 Dubon The only players really getting on base often are Alvarez (390) and Altuve (355). Tucker and Bregman are in the middle around 340's You cannot consistently score when you have 4 players in the line up most night with an average OBP of like 295. When you have a player with a low OBP they need to hit for a really high average (like Dubon if he is over 305 BA) or hit for an extreme power level. Pena is a SS, a Gold Glove caliber one, so he is understandable - even Maldonado to an extent is understandable as a catcher. The other ones really are not......... Tucker and Bregman will likely get their OBP over 350 and that will help, but that isn't enough. The Astros need at least one very good overall bat added, and possibly two. I know Abreu is expensive with high upside, but he may need to start losing at bats - and there is ZERO excuse for Julks to be starting, and really the Astros cannot have three order positions that are defensive first motivated (catcher/SS/CF) unless everyone else is hitting.
What are the odds Houston adds both a C and a LF (either of whom could siphon time at 1B if needed)? To me the only clear place to add an everyday/star caliber bat is LF, and all that does is upgrade over McCormick from a current ideal lineup. I just don’t see Baker benching Maldonado or Abreu as long as they are on the roster. Dana Brown may have to pull a moneyball move and trade one or both of those guys to force Baker’s hand. I honestly don’t think Houston can fix this team via trade. They’re too committed to their current roster. The only way this ends well is if Abreu starts hitting and everybody else gets/stays healthy.
