Long awaited, highly anticapted: all of Amen’s assists

Give us Fultz and 11 for the 4th and 20th. I'll throw in KJM with some reluctance. Select Lively at 11. This might work if Miller falls to 4.















@Deckard @ApacheWarrior

 

I like Cam if they can’t trade the pick. The black hole aspect of his game is a little bit of a worry but he looks like he has good upside to his game and defensive versatility. His athleticism is excellent too and he already has a NBA build.

Walker doesn’t look as explosive offensively but he’s an excellent defender and better passer.

 

One of the issues with Cam is, it's not just that he doesn't get assists, he also stops the ball, surveys for a few seconds, starts dribbling, etc. Like when Harden goes into "only looking for my own shot" mode, except all the time. It's not like he just passes it around the perimeter if he doesn't have a good look and doesn't get an assist on the play... The offense completely grinds to a halt.

For that reason, I actually think he might be the most "boom or bust" prospect in this year's lottery. He might become a truly elite scorer, and if he does, you can accept his limitations as a passer/decisionmaker. If he doesn't become that good, you can't risk putting the ball in his hands when he's not wide open or doesn't have a free run to the basket. He will literally be KJ Martin in that case.

Edit: Ahh, I just remembered who Cam reminds me of... he plays like a smaller Josh Smith. He's only 18, so maybe it's just his age. But yikes, not a good thought.

 

I agree with pretty much everything there. Only problem with the Josh Smith comp is that he would actually pass a lot more than Cam lol. Everyone in the 4-10 range seems to have their warts. If Cam can learn how to move the ball quicker and polish his defense then he has major upside. He also seems to be a pretty high character kid too.

He will still be 18 on draft day as well.

 

I blame a lot of that on coaching. Not only is he young but he was on a bad team that was poorly coached. The person with the highest assist on that team average like 3 assists. As a team they were one of the lowest assisting teams in the entire NCAA. Overall they just had horrible spacing and not a lot of shotmakers.

He needs to become a better playmaker and passer but i dont think hes as bad as the stats show.

He reminds me more of Jaylen Brown than Josh Smith.

 

Brown would be a great outcome for him... it's possible he could end up being that good. There are definitely some concerns though.

 

Sure, I'm ok with that.

Fultz has been working with his mental phobia of shooting aspect for years
with phycologist. Has improved to DeAngelo Russell levels.

Means no Harden

Rockets should have money or means of obtaining any 4 or 5 of:

Backup PG
Jevon Carter
Beverley
Monte Morris
Jordan Goodwin
Shake Milton

Backup Shooting Guard/SF
Austin Reaves
Seth Curry (PG/SG)

SF / Wing
Cam Johnson
Jerami Grant
Siakim
OG Anunoby
Draymond Green
Naz Reid

Center
Brook Lopez

 

The fact that he passed a collective 7 times the whole year is a little worrisome yes.

 

lol of course not. Sengun is untouchable. No one can speak ill of Demi-god Sengun. Flawless. Lmao

 

I agree that the team was a bit of a mess, but...I think even with that, the numbers (and tape) aren't kind for Cam. Maybe part of the reason others didn't average a ton of assists is that Cam (a ball stopper) basically led the team in usage (Eric Dixon slightly ahead on usage). Based on AST%, Cam was basically the worst on his team...by far (2 guys worse barely played relatively speaking). In comparison, Jaylen Brown had 2-3x the AST%, was 4th on his team in that metric (3rd if you exclude a guy that only played 9 games), and I think Brown had to deal with even worse spacing (Vecenie actually talked about how his draft stock tanked due to this team). When you look at stuff like this, it looks *really* bad for Cam.

I've kinda softened on my stance of the last few days on whether it is possible to go from a number that low and get it up to an adequate percentage for a highly valuable player. I guess KD is kinda an example of that. An extreme example, but an example nevertheless. I think for a player of his archetype, if he can get to 15-20% AST%, that might be enough to be that mega scoring go-to guy (similar to Kawhi and a few others too). I think Cam is at a lower starting point than these guys, but it probably wouldn't be *that* crazy if he got to those numbers. I'd put it on par with Amen going from 25%ish to 30% 3pt if that means anything (vs 25% to say 38%).

Now I will say if you are going to be a guy that isn't a top tier playmaker, you probably need to be a lights-out shooter. Ala KD, Kawhi, etc (all the top VORP/BPM/etc guys that fit this type were *excellent* shooters/scorers). I'm not 100% sold on Cam's shot either. It is better than Amen (low bar), but I'm not sure he's close to elite just yet. If he's like a 34% 3pt shooter (with little-to-no mid range game) *AND* he isn't a great playmaker, then it will be very hard for him to be a top 20-30 guy in the NBA IMO (maybe he can be a perennial DPOY guy?).

I'm painting a very difficult road for him, but I will say Cam has all the tools and unique circumstances to make that happen. I'm a bit skeptical of using solely his age as an excuse for being behind in some things, but I'm more willing to handwave things due to his injuries. He missed a big chunk of his college year (and more importantly, it was the beginning chunk, including I assume training camp/etc.). I also forgot that he missed a chunk of his senior year in HS too (I think that's right?). Plus I'm guessing COVID impacted things earlier in his HS career. I think if he had "it", we would have seen it by now, but I admit that he's missed a lot of valuable development time. I think in the right situation with a great development staff, he could definitely be molded into a great player. And even if he isn't "the guy," he's probably got a good shot at being a top tier secondary/tertiary guy.

 

Good post.

 

I don’t understand the rationale of getting a 31% three point shooting PG over taking a chance on Amen. I don’t like Amen that much and wouldn’t mind trading back a few spots to get Walker or even Cam. I get we want a vet PG, but wouldn’t want to settle for Fultz. That 4th pick has to be worth more than Fultz and 11. If you really are going to trade down with Orlando I would try 4 and one of KJM, Tate, or Garuba for 6 and 11. If Harden isn’t coming they should re-focus on Conley or Caruso and Austin Reeves. If for some reason Scoot falls to 4th then they should not trade down, but still pursue Conley or Caruso and try to use 20 and other assets to move up high enough to get Lively. I think he will be fine as a backup Center along with Jabari and Garuba. We don’t have to be world beaters next year, but if Ime can work enough magic on the defensive side of the ball, I think we improve to competitive for the play-in with just a few tweaks to the roster.

 

I don't disagree.

I don't really expect Fultz to stay healthy and I'm of the belief that
all Kevin Porter jr needs at point guard is shooters that can knock
down shots.

I predicted in preseason KPj would have 7.8 assists but that
was contingent on
1) Tate shooting well in summer....but was
hurt and forgot what he learned mechanics wise.
2) Sengun
shooting 33% but on 4 or 5 attempts (he gave me 0.8).
3) I saw
Jabari as a pure shooter in college that would translate to the
NBA as a rookie..... physicality and NBA schedule took a toll on him.
All shooters know that your foundation is important. Taking on PF's
defensively took the starch out of his legs.
4) if you look at Dallas
highlights in 2019, Silas used screens and off ball movement. Rockets
didn't start off ball movement as cutters until KPj was out at about
3/4 of the season being over mark. Everyone was 5-out and just ball
watching. Were we tanking and met our quota on losses at that point.
Then implemented movement?


I don't want Scoot Henderson or Amen (top 3 picks play day one)

Don't want Conley (too old and will demand too much money).
Does not fit timeline.

Fultz when he did play, the Magic scored high in efficiency
and ORtg.....question is, was it Tanking or is he injury prone.

Fultz (at present age) with a backup of Carter? Beverley?
Goodwin? Monte Morris? Seth Curry? Shake Milton
with KPj as a fall back plan, then I'm ok with that.

Fultz has been reading NBA defenses and opponent personnel
and opposing coaches tendencies for years now.
Johnny Manziel came out of Texas A&M as a quarterback
saying all they ran was about 3 plays. And all he had to do
was call out a color to set the play. I don't trust collegiate or amateur
G-League or OTE players to be ready day one for complex NBA
defenses that can go from man to man to 1-2-2 or 3-2 or 2-3 zones
to half court traps to switch everything defenses. Teams nowadays
allow the poorest shooters to be open at the 3 while sagging off
defenders in the paint. Scoot and Amen are going to have to
spend about two or three years learning this. Fultz can maneuver
It with the Rockets day one.

KPj in 21/22 was 7.2 assists/ gm in something like the final 11 games
that season (another reason why I expect 7.8 assists last yr).
When Rockets sat Wall and Christian Wood.....not tanking at
end of season.

All he needs are the shooters and Udoka scheme will provide the
off ball screening and cutting that opens up passing lanes.

Now of course we do need shooters to make this happen. Almost everyone
I mentioned brings almost 40% shooting: [ from 3% ]
Brook Lopez 37.4%
Jevon Carter 42.1%
Cam Johnson 37.2%
Shake Milton 37.8%
Jerami Grant 37.5%
Monte Morris 38.2%
Austin Reaves 39.8%
Seth Curry 42.5%
Harden 38.5 (CnS was over 40%}

All are in the age timeframe with exception to Brook Lopez.
But Brook Lopez almost won DOPY (I think he finished 2nd)

As for Cam Whitmore and Jarace Walker....I'm all for it.
Taylor Hendricks as well.

 

Solid variety of assists here. He may not have gravity without the ball (shooting 3s) but he's got a truckload of it with the ball. He collapses defenses extremely well and hits shooters with crisp passes in their breadbaskets.

This guy has it. I'm fanboying at this point. We're gonna be so lucky to get him at 4.

 

Very good reasonable post. I am high on KPJ, but in a three guard rotation with a better facilitator. He is a ball stopper at PG. He is a very slow decision maker and poor at drive and dish assists. He might be ideal as sixth man PG where his ball dominant play could be an advantage. I can’t stand Beverly. I think he has been overrated and his attitude has propelled him into all this defensive savant BS. With him, I think the media has had a lot of input into his worth. I think the no. 4 pick is of higher value than you do. Even if Amen is all hype, kind of like Beverly, that trade is far below value.

I am very concerned with Amen’s lack of a shot and the low competition he played against. I do believe Scoot is a level above Cade and Ivey and is worthy of the 3rd pick of the draft and would be an incredible pick at 4. Jarace, Cam and/or Lively would be immediate contributors, although i don’t see stardom in their future.

 

How is that possible?

 

Well Conley, Kyrie and CP3 are not coming to Houston to play wet nurse
baby sitter and hold the hands of a bunch of 21 year olds on the cheap.
They figure to seek a ring with a contender while giving them a discount.

Conley will probably accept $8m to $12m from a contender but
will demand $18m to $20m from Houston. Fultz is an expiring
contract of $9m. Half of what Conley will probably want.

Am I the only one that saw Favors, Danny Green, Justin Holiday,
Moe Harkless get traded to Houston and refuse to play one
single game? Aaron Gordon vetoed a trade to Houston a few
years back according to reports.

Not everyone wants to come to Houston unfortunately.
You have to build the car by setting your shooters first
and then get/convince your driver Conley to come on board
on the cheap. Conley will say nice, but now that you set
everything.....I'm in control of asking a lot because you need
me, the driver.

VanVleet won't come to Houston. Raptors were just as bad as the
Rockets from 3-point line and VanVleet put up just as lame as KPj
stats for most of the season. Both experienced the same results
from a crowded paint. Why would VanVleet bail on the Raptors
and his player option of $22m for much the same in Houston.
We would have to pay him $27m to $30m. Again, doing the
same as what KPj can give you.

Many would describe Marcus Smart much the same way you
described KPj. Smart went from 5 assists with Udoka to
7 assists much of this past season. When you have shooters
and screeners off screen with split action thrown in.....you get
more open lanes, cleaner windows to pass the ball. KPj is
completely underrated and totally misread because the
Rockets lacked 3-pt shooting the past two years and
we have been tanking. Silas never got that screener he
needed like he had in Dallas.

So in Summary: no Conley, CP3, Kyrie will not be coming
to Houston.

Nets and Celtics will ask for the moon on Bridges and Jaylen Brown.

Siakim may be had because of how desperate they seem to be going after
Amen Thompson. They gave no indication on Scottie Barnes before the
draft but have been gushing ever since. They want Amen next to Barnes
badly.

Has anyone noticed that the Raptors seem content to let VanVleet and
Gary Trent walk? Usually teams say, it's top priority to bring this guy or
that guy back. Nothing, crickets.....nurse is gone.....shouldn't VanVleet
want to stay. Or maybe VanVleet follows Nurse to Philly.

Orlando going after Gary Trent jr hard is rumored.

This is why I say Siakim to Portland is probably in the works.

VanVleet to Philly
Gary Trent to Magic
Harden to Suns
Kyrie to Lakers
CP3 to Clippers
Conley......not to Houston

Udoka is going to get the ball out of KPj's hands as part of the scheme.
PG brings up the ball and immediately sends it to a facilitator. KPj
would then continue through the lane and then set up in one of the corners.
Udoka already said he would use KPj more off ball. Taking advantage
of his CnS 3's more often.

And often the same PG that brings the ball up the court ends up receiving
the ball again as the possession transpires. Smart often gets the ball back
again and is asked to facilitate from there....again.

Udoka likes for everyone to screen.....this is one reason he liked Marcus Smart
as the point guard and why he will like KPj playing the 1 as well. Big body to screen
does it better than most 6'1" guards.

 

@Hemingway

 

He doesn't turn 19 until July 8th. I had to check it multiple times too because I didn't believe it lol.

 

We will see how it shakes out on draft day but I’d be absolutely shocked if Amen went before Scoot. The general consensus that he is the second best player in the draft is for good reason.

Remember, as hyped as VW is, when him and Scoot went head to head Scoot didn’t look outclassed at all.

Scoot is extremely skilled. And his shot never looked completely broken. Even if he’s a low 30 percent 3 pt shooter he’s still likely going to be a major offensive force.