Got it. Granted, the way they hit on Springer, Correa, Bregman, Tucker… you figure something has to even out somewhere else.
That farm was way more highly rated at the time ~$300M by FanGraphs. The current farm is probably valued around $60M with Brown and Diaz graduating. Even removing Tucker and Whitley, that farm was rated over three times what the current farm is using non-Astros fan observations. The general assumption should always be that it is doubtful to produce that much talent.
Yes, but that goes to my point about the difference being at the top end, not depth. 3rd/4th (and many 2nd) tier prospects don’t carry much $ value on those calculations. I don’t disagree that we should not assume low rated and unrated prospects will turn into McCormicks and Meyers and Javier’s. But in an apples to apples comparison (using value as assessed at the time, which for 3rd and 4th tier prospects probably relies on statistical analysis with maybe age and bonus factored in) the depth of this farm is roughly on par with the bulk of the Luhnow era. I have an excel model based on fangraphs minor league advanced stat dumps with tweaks for defensive value, bonus, level, and age relative to league that I’ve been keeping for a long time. The ratings it spits out for the prospects in the current farm are on par or better with the Luhnow era, just missing the top 2-4 guys who get 55+ grades from the model. Of course it is an amateur’s effort, but it has been surprisingly predictive. You can go back and look and I was one of the first guys on this site to fully buy in on guys like Meyers and Toro (the model missed McCormick because I dramatically underrated his defensive value). (It is also worth noting my model has been far more predictive for position players than pitchers.) my original comment that you’ve been responding to was made in response to a comment about the presence of players like Machado and Madris in the current farm and how that wasn’t the case in the Luhnow era. I don’t think Reid Brignac or Alex Presley were part of those 9 figure Fangraphs farm $ values during the Luhnow era.
Michael Knorr with a nice outing for Asheville, even though he took the loss. 5 IP, 4 H (solo HR allowed), 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 10 K Ryan Clifford went 2-4 and his solo homer (6; 8 season) was the Tourists' only run of the night.
Jairo Solis vs. Albuquerque: 6 IP, 3 H (2-R HR allowed), 2 ER, BB, 7 K, 84 pitches (59 strikes) Solis struck out the side in order in the 6th inning.
Quincy Hamilton's three hits since his promotion to Sugar Land are home runs. He now has nine home runs this year.
Let’s hope not. Let’s hope the Astros GM doesn’t count on players like Julks and adds a genuine near all star bat - that Dusty plays him and Dezenzo can try making the team next year.
Extremely encouraging night for Solis. Averaged almost 95 on his fb over 84 pitches, only allowed one hard hit fly ball. He needs to stay healthy and not get Whitley’ed.
Much-anticipated fangraphs list is out: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/houston-astros-top-38-prospects-2023/ They’re obviously very high on the young international guys. I think they’rez too low on Barber, Leon, Melendez, and Dezenzo. But this is a very informed list. I think they accurately rate the system as average (with Brown/Diaz) to below average (without them). I’m encouraged that they rate lots of young guys as more valuable than some sure-thing role player types (Kessinger, Julks, Blanco), so it looks like the farm has a brighter future than present. some notable quotes: you can make a pretty good case (at this stage anyway) that Brown should have been the second-ranked pitching prospect in baseball this offseason after Eury Pérez. Some of Clifford’s TrackMan data from the early portion of the season was so absurd that he merited consideration as a possible Top 100 prospect. Baez had an absurd 52% hard-hit rate in the D.R. last summer, and even though some of that can be explained away by his mature physicality relative to most DSL players, he’s continued to impress scouts throughout 2023 extended spring training in West Palm
Top pitching velocity notes from that list: Brown 100 France 97 Arrighetti 96 Knorr 97(!) Whitley 99 Blanco 98 Santa 97 Solis 97 I was disappointed to see them list Taylor as topping out at 94. I thought he threw harder than that. Same for DeVos topping at 93. They also have Tamarez listed as topping at 94 but I know he throws harder than that. Jayden Murray didn’t even make their list. It looks like Houston may have pivoted away from velo guys to guys who have one established elite pitch, hoping they can coax more velo during development.
It was surprisingly positive. His last words "Overall, this system is average; as Brown and Diaz graduate, it falls below. It’s a little imbalanced due to the lack of pitching, but it’s close to the middle of the league in terms of depth." are alot more promising than i would have expected. There was a very surprising number of international guys up and down the list. His comments about the system suddenly being out of ready pitching prospects was kind of odd. The 2022 list basically had just Hunter Brown as the only ready prospect too. It's clear the pitching side has been weak for a while.
Were they really big velo people before? Seems like they have been mostly elite FB characteristics over velo for a while.
