Scoot is a better shooter than Amen, but Amen is way better than Scoot on athleticism, play making, vision, shot blocker, rebounding, elite 1st step and a defender. Scoot is only 6’2 so he will have problems driving to the basket and trying to defend 6’6 guards. You have so many options with Amen.
Ja is 6’2. Does he have problems driving to the basket? Y’all just manufacturing knocks against other prospects at this point Scoot also has a 6’9 wingspan Amen will kill your whole offense if he never meaningfully improves his shot
So the Amen talk is getting too hard to follow across this forum, and I think I need to rant a bit, so I'll just throw it here. Everyone is welcome to throw out their own opinions on the matter, but at some point, don't some of y'all feel a bit odd to have such drastically different opinions/evaluations than (AFAIK) all the draft experts? Vecenie, Spinella, Givony, KOC, some Rockets draft experts, etc., all have ranked Amen fairly high in the draft (generally top 5), and I believe most/all also think he'd be a great fit with the team (minor quibbles about spacing/shooting aside). I think the lowest I've seen him ranked is #9 by the No Ceilings crew (though he was 4-5 in their previous mocks IIRC). Even with that #9 evaluation (which I think is reasonable), I feel like that's way too high if you guys think he sucks because he wasn't able to dominate against 15 year olds. Surely that would make him a 2nd rd player at best, no? And...somehow...all these draft experts just didn't realize that he was in fact playing against 15 year olds, and oh...wow...his shot does suck. And presumably some NBA front office (be it the Rockets or someone else) will have missed all of that too. He's got his flaws, just like every other prospect (Scoot = too short, Miller = too skinny/can't finish, Cam = seems to lack "feel", Jarace = too many floaters/not quite tall enough, Black/Hendricks = low-ish ceilings, etc.). JG, Jabari, Sengun, and the other guys on our team also have big flaws IMO. If I had to bet, I'm not sure any of them would end up hitting their ceiling, though I'm certainly hopeful that I'm wrong. And sure, experts get it wrong sometimes (see Suggs and other high profile prospects that flamed out). But we're Rockets fans. We trash Tilman because he pushed through a trade that he evaluated as good, and where he did *not* listen to his own experts (there's the "Shut Up and Listen" dialogue). If anything, I figured we'd have more humility than most and would defer to the experts on topics such as these vs repeating the mistakes we criticized Tilman for making. A lot of this applies to other prospects as well (Scoot gets a fair share of odd complaints involving G league play), but seems like Amen is the easier target for this type of thinking. Alright, rant over. Sorry about that. Continue with your regularly scheduled GARM posts.
I don't really like this way of looking at things. Too results-oriented. It's like saying a guy is a bad poker player because he loses a few hands. Or to use a more direct analogy, it's like saying a basketball player is a bad shooter because he doesn't make every shot. No analyst will ever be right 100% of the time. That's not how it works. It's about making good decisions that maximize your odds.
Y'all know I'm on the optimistic side with Amen, but I was thinking about worst case (or semi-worst case) comps. This has probably been said plenty of times, but geez Elfrid Payton draft profiles sound pretty familiar: http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Situational-Statistics-the-2014-Point-Guard-Crop-4617/ https://www.sbnation.com/2014/6/17/5809658/elfrid-payton-scouting-report-nba-draft-2014 If you weren't keeping track, Payton is shooting 29% from 3 and 62% from FT for his career. He's still in the NBA (at least as of last year), so guess he's a journeyman back-up PG type guy. Not completely worthless, but yeah not a game changer. I'd like to think Amen is at least a bit better in some things than Payton, but not sure substantially so. Edit: Actually he's not in the NBA. I'm just old and forgot what year it was.
That's not a bad comp; Payton is currently playing in PR though. To be honest, "taller Elfrid Payton" isn't bad as a floor. Presumably Amen would grab an extra board or two and have a bit more defensive impact. That would be something in the range of low-end starter. Payton's stat line over his peak four years was: 28.9 minutes 11.8 points 6.7 assists 2.4 turnovers 4.7 rebounds 1.6 stocks 46.5/28.4/66.6 shooting splits (the nuuuumber of the beeeast) Let's imagine Amen, being 3-4 inches taller, ups the rebound number to around 6 and the stocks to around 2 and is more versatile/impactful defensively. That's an NBA starter, in my view.
Nice post, very similar except for Amen's size. People like to say that shooting can improve, but it's mainly set shooting, i.e. FTs and spot-up 3s. Off-the-dribble and pick-and-pop shooting are not something I would expect him to ever be good at, unless a miracle happens.
Haha yeah I realized I mis-calculated (aka forgot what year it was) after posting that. So yeah, not an NBA guy after 500 games/8ish years. Looking it up, Magic gave him up for just a 2nd rd pick (though partly because they weren't going to re-sign him that summer as a FA). Yeah, if that is indeed a semi-worst case scenario, that's not bad. Certainly bigger busts in NBA history (and maybe most draft years). He could possibly end up worse if it turns out his playmaking/handle isn't as advertised, he can't finish at the rim, etc., but assuming he's a moderately hard worker without a huge mental breakdown, this seems fairly achievable as a floor.
Amen is definitely bigger, faster and more explosive. Similar skills though. My issue with Thompson is that I flat out don't believe you can win an NBA title with a PG who can't shoot and his shot looks like a lot of players who never end up learning how to shoot. You would have to upgrade at other positions and thus outspend other teams to win a title. I don't want a piece of our core with one of those mortal flaws like no 3pt shooting or bad FT shooting or no defense. We'll always be making up for that stuff, hiding it, etc. He's trying really hard to shoot well but I believe he's 23% right now. That's not a minor quibble. That's a major red flag in today's NBA and I don't really see the need for us to take risks that big. That doesn't mean I know whether he'll be a good shooter or not, it's just based on what we know the risk is high. If you were going to put money on who will be the worst shooting win player in the first round of the draft your money would be on Amen. It's a shame because he passes the ball like Lebron James. That's what's making the decision and debate so controversial. Everyone can see he has an elite unbelievable skill. I hope we pick him and all the concerns about his shooting end up being overblown. Would be a great player to have.
I just feel like this is a bit of an inflexible view toward roster-building. I think there's clearly some threshold where a non-shooting primary ballhandling perimeter player can win a title. Giannis just did it two years ago, after all. It's just a question of where that threshold lies. Can a guy 4 inches shorter than Giannis do it if he ends up being a much better playmaker? I personally don't know the answer to that. But I generally believe in picking the best player available.
Funnily enough, the reason I posted about Payton is that he stood out as one of the guys who shot poorly in college, was drafted high-ish, and never really shot well in the NBA. Probably some others (I was eye-balling it for names I recognized). But there are also lots of guys that shot horrendously in college and/or in their early NBA years, but ended up alright. CF has posted a lot of names, so I won't repeat them (though I saw some others too). In comparison to the list of guys who "can't pass," I was more encouraged that shooting could be developed for someone like Amen. Still not super optimistic overall, but I think it is worth taking a chance on given his other abilities. Especially if he basically is a NBA starter in a worst-ish scenario. FWIW, his 3pt% was 25% in the season and 30% in the playoffs for OTE (on NBA 3s). I noted this elsewhere, but the sample size was also pretty small (primarily due to number of games, not so much his shot attempts per se). I don't have the numbers handy, but I think this is one of those scenarios where if he made 4-5 of these 3s, we'd actually be calling him a sharpshooter from 3. Of course, his shot mechanics are trash, so I'd not trust those numbers completely even if he did make those 3s, but just something I wanted to throw out. This is not a NBA or NCAA-esque sample size. ...guess he could even be worse than 25%.
Why are there so many AOFs? Amen is not even a Rocket yet but he's getting the Yao/TMac/Harden/Lin treatment.
Oh, will you shut up? It's two weeks from draft day and we're all talking about which guy we want the Rockets to draft. That doesn't make anybody an "only fan". It's just discussing the topic of the moment.
Nope, people should not be told to shut up in the event of an offseason or in their spare time. Overtime Elite ’s future rides with the Thompson twins. Rockets survive if Amen becomes semi useless.
Aren't you the guy complaining this random YouTuber didn't release videos of Amen in the order you wanted? You're an AOF downplaying his obvious flaws in every single thread. People raising legit concerns but y'all are just like "nah lol he looks talented playing against 17-year-olds as a grown man." ROCKET fans are right to be extremely concerned about drafting the biggest bust potential guy in recent history. This is "Hasheem might not be good at basketball but look at his physical talents and motor!" level of cope ... Except he doesn't even play for the Rockets.
