There hasn't been a passing guard with Amen's athleticism since Lebron (not a guard but similar enough skillset in that department). Simmons is absolutely not in his level athletically and Amen isnt passing wide open layups. Westbrook was athletic but wasn't ever the passer Amen is.
Everyone wants to talk about he isn’t like other athletic players with broken jumpers - okay, fine…then show me the successful hyper athletic player who has succeeded as a PG/playmaker shooting as poorly as him? I’m not saying show me a player like him - I’ll agree he is a unique talent - BUT he is only a factor with the ball in his hands and he can’t shoot. That means if he doesn’t have the ball he isn’t effective…and if he does have the ball but the defender sinks way way back, he is also not effective. Is he really going to help an offense that way? …I think where I would be more excited about Amen is defensive upside - if he could become a lock down defender and or disruptive player - with his speed and open court playmaking he could erase a lot of sins from the half court play and generate easy offense. THAT is his path to being a useful player - it’s not being hyper athletic in the the half court until he can hit a shot consistently - that’s for sure.
I would love picking Brandon Miller. If there's one position where you can't have too many of them, it's the "3 and D". With the top prospects though, it's never just 3-and-D. It's 3-and-D, and something else. The absolute wet dream for coaches these days is the "clone wars" offense that Don Nelson first dreamt up with his Warriors that knocked out the 1 seed Mavs that year. Just waves and waves of long lanky wings passing to the open man and hitting open shots over you on one end, followed by non-stop switch defense and getting deflections all over the place on the other end. It can be done. Miller, Jabari, Tari, Jalen, and even KPJ can fit this offensive system. And that it's hub, you stick a point-Sengun...it can be done! Just look at these finals.
Defense is definitely going to be extremely important for him to earn minutes early in his career if he is in a situation where he does need to earn them (which it sounds like he will be with the Rockets given all the talk of signing a veteran point guard). De'Aaron Fox is the best recent example of a player who ended up succeeding as a hyper-athletic point guard who couldn't shoot when he was drafted. Fox was a trash shooter in college, from all distances. He was 24.6% from three in college and he wasn't confident in the shot either, only took 1.9 a game. Here is a quote from a scouting report during his draft year: His FT% wasn't that much better than Amen's either, at 73%. (Keep in mind Amen went 69% from the FT line when you include his playoff games.)
You just aren't going to convince me to pick Amen at #4. Not playing in OTE and shooting so poorly overall. The line has been drawn in the sand .... I think the video evidence has shown that even in OTE defenders were content to back off of him and dare him to shoot .... That won't change in the NBA and those defenders are significantly better, he won't be overpowering them with his size / athleticism when they do back off and dare him to shoot. Then there's his finishing at the rim - depending upon which stats you buy as correct, he shot either 40% or 50% (neither are particularly impressive) at the rim against guys who are younger, smaller and less athletic. He's not going to come into the NBA and all the sudden be "that much more athletic than everyone else in the association" compared to how he was in OTE. Even if he's the best athlete in the league, he's still not that much better than the next guy comparatively. Shooting might be the single most important skill any player can have and particularly so for one who appears to be as ball dominant as Amen would be, it's probably even more important a skill. You've said in the past "its 50-50" that he becomes a passable shooter, I don't think the odds are that high at all .... and I'm not one that's willing to risk the #4 pick on his learning to shoot after playing basketball for 20 years ... I'd much rather take a player who I think will be a very good contributor with a little lower ceiling or just trade the damn thing than to take what portends to be a bust.. (Couldn't find a good Dream Theatre version with Sherinian & Portnoy - with this version you get the awesomeness of Tony Macalpine & Billy Sheehan ... and none of James LaBrie's vocals screwing up the music)
Well, agree to disagree, and props for the Dream Theater reference, didn't expect to see that in the GARM lol. Who would you pick instead if Scoot and Miller are off the board though? I don't see anyone left without serious questions. Whitmore - total black hole on offense, 19 assists all season, better shooter than Amen, but let's be honest, he's still pretty bad. Ausar - same issues that you dislike about Amen, just trading a little athleticism/playmaking for a slightly less-broken jump shot. Walker - I came into the process liking him a ton, but I've dropped off after watching him play more... he plays incredibly soft to concerning level, how often do guys learn to play tough? Also too short for a guy who looks most like a small ball 5. Not a great shooter either, although more promising than Amen. Black - barely shoots any better than Amen, especially factoring in the shorter college 3P line. Significantly less athleticism to fall back on. Hendricks - very limited upside, no real shot creation or playmaking abilities, also kind of redundant with Jabari's off-ball/defensive abilities. The Rockets could try to trade back or trade the pick for an established player I guess, but ehhhh. I'm skeptical they could get a good value in either of those scenarios. I haven't heard any exciting possibilities available via trade, just expiring contracts that can't be extended, and we don't have any indication that a team with multiple picks like Orlando wants our pick (couldn't they theoretically have the same concerns you do?). If the Rockets come up with some amazing deal that we haven't heard a single whisper about so be it but I'll believe it when I see it, or when somebody reliable like Woj reports something specific is in the works. P.S. Amen shot 66% on all 2Pers which includes mid-range jump shots. When you say "finishing at the rim" I assume you mean just on layups. A bit odd to break it down that way, but okay. Including dunks though, his percentage finishing around the rim was elite, 75% IIRC.
Fox is a better player than Amen. Fox has always been able to flat out score and trust me no one was turning the backs on Fox the way they wait for the rebound when Amen shoots. Fox would go 2 in this draft hands down.
Huh? Why does his injury need to cause him to miss most of the season the fact that he already had multiple injuries before playing in the NBA is already a red flag. How many injuries did Amen and Brandon Miller have last year? And for the GLeague to preemptively sit him out so he wouldn't get injured... You think thats a normal occurrence or what? Did they sit down Leonard Miller so he wouldn't get injured? What about Jalen Green and Kuminga 2 years ago how many games did those 2 sit out? No scout pay attention to these cuz they are only concerned with how these players pan out in the next 2 yrs. It's their job to get players that make an instant impact nobody is gonna go to them 9 yrs later and say oh man the dude you got is injury prone. You think Wizards GM gave the scouts hell after John Wall lost his step and missed like 3 seasons from 2027-2020??? How many scouts said don't take Zion no 1 cuz he is gonna have a short career and be injury prone?
Rajon Rondo, Josh Giddey, Ricky Rubio or Draymond with Amen's athleticism and finishing ability around the basket would be a nutty player. I'd liken him to a more athletic and taller Rondo if his shot never develops. Jalen and Amen as slashers off of Sengun would be pretty crazy.
Alright, so I see people throwing out some inaccurate or misleading numbers on guys, so I'll just share this cheat sheet I stole from Twitter a couple of weeks ago. I'm 95% sure these are accurate (based on Synergy data), and you can get half court vs overall numbers on pretty much any of the major prospects. Have fun.
You’ve proven you move the goal posts to suit the argument - “scouts only pay attention to who will be the best player over the next 2 years”? Do you even read the crap you write. No thanks. You can continue to delude yourself into whatever narrative suits you - but I’m not listening anymore because you aren’t making real sense half the time. I’m certainly rooting for Houston to win here and by all accounts it looks like Amen will be available to us and has the highest upside - that’s not lost on me so I certainly hope you are right but as a talent I think there is far more risk with Amen overcoming his poor fundamentals and lack of advanced basketball skills than Scoot having injury concerns and I would say their ceilings are similar - that’s why Scoot has been ahead of Amen in virtually all draft rankings…and it’s not because “scouts only care about how good a player will be two years from now”….but I think we need good players right now - we can’t wait for a player to maybe develop into a star many years from now and for all of Amen’s talents, he is still a relatively raw player who is many years away from being the dude you hope he is.
The problem is where is the spacing to give Sengun those angles? If both Sengun and Amen lack range? …but hey - I agree that Amen would be an incredible player if he were a hyper athletic Rondo with a jumper.
I still think Fox had more useful skills coming into the league - Amen’s scouting report is very high on the raw athleticism and body control but from a basketball standpoint he still looks relatively raw to me. There is no refinement - the OTE didn’t seem to prepare him in the same way as other leagues…maybe he is a diamond in the rough, but to me he is no different than the raw but athletic 7fters who have always been the stuff of draft busts - he’s just the wing/PG version of that…but I would love to be wrong because he will likely be the highest ceiling available by the time we draft.
Yeah, I agree Amen/Sengun is not a great fit as they are right now. If one or both of them becomes a significantly better shooter it becomes easier. Having a big, athletic, potentially great defensive point guard on the perimeter also helps cover for Sengun's limitations on the other end. And I'm intrigued to see what Amen doing lightning-fast, explosive cuts to the basket would be like with Sengun's passing. In any case, the fit with the current roster isn't something I'd worry about too much. I'd just take the best player available and figure that stuff out later. I think I'm just higher on Amen's playmaking than you are, and that's okay... different opinions and all. You'll get no argument from me on OTE being a bad competition level, and I agree Amen has a bit less polish than Fox did as a prospect (but his size makes up for it to some degree).
With Miller, another ceiling comp that occurs to me is Khris Middleton. I've softened on picking him if he drops to us. I wouldn't mind seeing a Danny Granger/Khris Middleton type on this team on a rookie contract. If he can reach that ceiling that's easily worth the #4 pick. I don't think there's any realistic chance Ausar or Whitmore gets picked in the top 3 though, so I still think we're just going to have to take whoever falls between Scoot/Miller/Amen, which will likely be Amen.
I'm not moving goal posts here I'm just telling you why no scout talks about Scoots injury history. You asked right and I answered. If you don't like the truth then don't ask, duh. You are the one deluding yourself not me. Have you watched the NBA for more than 10 yrs? Do you know DRose? Steve Francis? John Wall? Ja Morant? OK but Scoot isn't like all these players right? He won't end up having short and injury prone careers like these guys, nah I'm just crazy and deluded. Cuz you know we haven't seen how 6'3 guys with insane athleticism end up in the NBA, nobody would expect the dude already dealing with some injuries prior to getting drafted is gonna have injuries once he gets to the NBA. If you are really rooting for the Rox to win it all you wouldn't want them to drsft the 6'2 shorty as in the last 40 yrs of NBA history only Billups won a ring with a shorty as their best player (not counting Steph who has had 3-4 all star teammates every time he has won a ring). But then again just ignore entirety of NBA history and then a tall surprised and say nobody saw that coming amirite?
Don't forget to add the expected starters to the equation of spacing .... Green .338 Sengun .333 KMj .315 Jabari .307 Amen .233 Not a single "average" shooter among them. Not a single one of them above 80% at the stripe either - who's taking that critical FT? Spacing? What spacing?
I very strongly believe Jabari is an above average 3P shooter long term, if not better. Green also should be able to get at least a bit better. I don't see KJ as a long-term starter for us.
