Frustrating indeed for them, but also for us that we had a run like that and we are still looking up in the standings. I hate Arlington, but man they scare me. This is different than Oakland 2020 or Seattle last year, those teams were winning ballgames but they had small run diff, which to me is always the tell for a fool's gold team. The Rangers have a huge run diff and they are dominating their games. They are getting insane production from their starting pitching, even without DeGrom who is really just a bonus for them at this point. They're lineup is killer, the guys they have acquired like Semien and Seager are producing, and other under the radar acquisitions like Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim are performing at a high level too. On top of that, they have a young stud in Josh Jung sprinkled in. Their only real weakness right now is their bullpen, which I am sure they will address at the deadline, and will be mitigated anyway in a playoff series where their starting pitching depth can come in relief. They are a problem. I can only hope their starting pitching, which in my opinion is overachieving greatly, will tire out or fizzle out as the season goes on.
Everything you said is right on. All I can add is that #1 no offense stays this hot. They will have some slumps and off days. #2 This is their first playoff push. They will need to deal with the pressure and learn how to win together. These 2 things give me faith that they won't hold off the Astros. Astros 100-62 Rangers 96-66 1st WC
Indeed, but Seager, Eovaldi, and DeGrom have WS experience, and their manager has won three titles. While the rest of the roster may not have playoff experience (Semien has some from Oak and Toronto, I think), the leadership is there, and it will be tested.
Wayyyyy too early to give it to Arlington. Only 3 games back, and still play them quite a few more times. I fully expect Arlington to stop overachieving very soon.
There's more than 100 games left in the season, and 10 of those are these two teams playing each other. Even with a three-game lead, that's a pretty bold prediction.
I think the Rangers' lineup will keep outperforming the Astros through the rest of the season. Maldy and Abreu will continue dragging the team down and there isn't enough star power in the lineup anymore to carry those two burdens. Hopefully the Rangers' pitching cools off at some point.
Pitching health will determine who wins the division. The Astros would run away with it again if they’d had both Brantley/Abreu healthy and productive. But those 2 disappointments greatly shortened their lineup and now the Rangers and Astros are very evenly matched.
I don't necessarily agree with this. ZIPS in season adjusted projections Altuve - 134 Pena - 99 Alvarez - 168 Bregman - 133 Tucker - 128 Abreu - 109 Brantley/Chas - 118/98 Meyers - 95 Maldy - 64 Semien - 124 Seager - 128 Lowe - 121 Garcia - 108 Jung - 117 Heim - 104 Grossman - 98 Duran - 97 Taveras - 92 Shortstop and catcher / #2, #8, #9 lineup spots favor Texas the other 7 positions and 6 lineup spots favor Astros. It may not happen but it isn't a given that Texas out hits the Astros.
All post-season pitchers are on a short leash…and again, Urquidy has had enough decent playoff starts (not just WS) to give him more than just an inning (which is what a true bullpen game is)
The Rangers are #1 in MLB in runs scored. The Astros are down at 20th. And our OPS is 22nd while the Rangers are 3rd There’s not really a debate their offense is better this year. It’s a long season and they’ll have to prove it in October though
https://theathletic.com/4569305/2023/05/31/lance-mccullers-starting-pitching-depth/ Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. is no longer throwing off a mound and seeking further evaluation after suffering a setback during his recovery from a forearm strain, manager Dusty Baker and general manager Dana Brown said on Wednesday, reinforcing the team’s need to acquire a starting pitcher by the Aug. 1 trade deadline. McCullers has not made himself available for comment since the club started its current homestand. Both Baker and Brown used the word “discomfort” to describe McCullers’ latest hurdle, but the Astros use that word so frequently it carries little actual meaning. Asked whether the soreness is in McCullers’ forearm or elbow, Baker said it is in “that general area.” Asked on Tuesday when McCullers last threw a baseball, Baker replied “a couple days ago.” Brown has described McCullers’ current workload as “light toss” on flat ground, meaning that even if McCullers clears this setback, he must restart the long buildup all injured starters must undertake. McCullers’ initial injury occurred during a bullpen session on Feb. 14 — the day before Astros pitchers and catchers reported to spring training. At the time, McCullers described it as a “small muscle strain” and said he underwent an MRI that revealed no structural damage to his ulnar collateral ligament. McCullers underwent Tommy John surgery in Nov. 2018. He’s thrown 265 major-league innings since while combating various injuries. McCullers missed most of last season with a flexor-pronator strain he suffered during the 2021 American League Division Series, but returned to throw 47 ⅔ regular-season innings and start three playoff games. The Astros signed him to a five-year, $85 million extension following the 2020 season. He’s started 36 games in the three seasons since.
Give McCullers the surgery already. He’s obviously not going to be right again until they fix whatever is wrong
There is not a debate that their offense HAS BEEN better. But it is very debatable that it will be the rest of the year. There are really only 2 positions where the Rangers are clearly better - shortstop and catcher. And even there Seager has proven he is just as likely to get hurt as be an All Star. The Astros have a big advantage at backup catcher if either starter gets hurt. Abreu hasn't been good, certainly nowhere near Lowe, but track record shows he could turn it on and it would not be surprising if he outplayed him the rest of the season. Altuve and Semien are pretty equal. I don't see any scenario outside of injury where the Astros don't get at least a draw here. So far Jung has out hit Bregman, but he's a rookie and Alex has the track record and his early season slump is over There is reasonable doubt that Texas maintain their advantage here. Tucker and Garcia are both productive, talented young players. It's reasonable to pick either of them as the better hitter the rest of the year. Yordan is head and shoulders better than anyone they have to put against him at LF/ DH. Grossman would be the current best match. In CF, Meyers has had a resurgent season. Taveras has been good but it's really hard to say one will definitely out hit the other the rest of the way. Utility spot has Smith vs Dubon and neither really has an advantage. The last spot for both teams is pretty fluid: Texas has Duran (who has been good but is hurt and has a poor career track record) and 2 unproven OF in Thompson and Jankowski. Astros have McCormick, Julks, and potentially Brantley. This could go either way depending on health and other factors. So? How can anyone say WITHOUT QUESTION OR DEBATE that Texas will continue to be better than the Astros the rest of the year?
I think people are panicking a bit much on the lineup. Bregman and Tucker, based on their age and track records, there's no reason to think they won't be quite a bit better the last 2/3 of the season than they were the first 1/3. Altuve is also back looking like the guy we all know and love, so no reason to think that position won't be better the rest of the way also. It's obviously frustrating to watch key guys underperform, but it's a long season and sometimes you just have to ride the tide. LF is a very easy and cheap fix if they want. A competent LH hitter like Seth Brown, or Brantley or any of a half dozen other guys platooning with Chaz instead of Corey Julks will make that position productive. They could hunt bigger game at the position, but they don't have to. 1B is the giant pink elephant in the room. It will be significantly better one way or the other, Abreu will hit or he will start losing AB's. We currently have a .512 OPS!!! from the position, we could put a terrible hitter there and see huge improvement. They are not gonna stick with him for 650 PA if he doesn't show some competence.
They should start giving Diaz starts at 1B. He has had one of the hottest bats on the team this past month but hardly plays even though the team is dying for more offense. Maddening.
That’s a whole lot of words to spin the literal #1 offense in baseball right now is going to be worse than the #20 offense. Do I think we’re better than we’ve shown and the Rangers are potentially peaking? Sure. But your post is a lot more hoping and wishing than indicative of the state of the two lineups right now
Identifying the point of no return is the issue at first base. Can we wait till the break to reduce Abreu's playing time to that of a bench bat? More importantly will dusty have to be undercut to get it done?
