I think she does. It's a very commonly used word with a very specific meaning. At least it was before look - say which must have been based on Music Education in the Music Man.
So far both have pitched well when it comes to runs allowed but I will be very surprised if this keeps up, especially in the case of France - who is largely getting by on smoke and mirrors.
All pitchers have a specific amount of ability and there are definite tiers. Every pitcher in MLB, down to the 13th mop up guy, has talent and is among the 99% best pitchers on the planet. But they face the 1% top hitters on the planet as well. The top tier have a special combination of elite stuff, command, baseball IQ, and focus. They perform day in and day out because they simply are a level above everyone else. A bad game from them is still a good game. Tier 2 starting pitchers may have all those attributes but with less consistency. Overall, they will get 75%+ of hitters out but inevitably give a homerun or allow the baserunners in bunches every few innings resulting in multiple runs scored against them occasionally. But they can still be counted on to limit damage and keep their team in a game. The 3rd tier starter is a pitcher who is very good at most aspects of pitching but simply lacks the "stuff" or consistent execution of high quality pitches to be elite or get the very best MLB hitters out after repeated exposure. He can be counted on to go deep in games and have no issues with 2 and even maybe 3 times through a lineup except against the best lineups. At any given time though the best hitters will win the battle. Because of this he can't be counted on in big spots in important games. A manager and fan base are always holding their breath and not surprised if it goes sideways Tier 4 guys really have to rely on execution and luck because their level of those attributes is another step down and any miss can result in them getting hammered. The more they pitch the more likely it is that they make mistakes or good MLB hitters catch up to their lesser pitches and/or command. A 3rd time through the order is a danger to almost all MLB hitters and its usually just a matter of time before they give up multiple runs or simply stop getting a lineup out. There is a reason that both Bielak and France have spent years and years in the minors. They are the latter tier. The more they are used and exposed, the more MLB hitters will be able to solve them or they have a bad outing. Eventually it will happen. They are human and are not talented enough to get through the mistakes unscathed. A World Series contending team wants 4+ of the 1st tier starters. At very least they must have at least 4 in the top 2 tiers to have a reasonable chance. Framber, and Javier are in the 1st tier. Brown can get there but is likely at the very top of the 2nd tier right now. McCullers (when healthy) is solidly in the 2nd tier. Garcia and Urquidy are in tier 3, though it feels like Luis hasn't hit his peak yet. France and Bielak are in tier 4
I like the way you broke this down but realistically, 4 “tier 1” guys is impossible. I think you need 3 horses, and 1 guy that can give you 5 solid innings in game 4.
You are right. Notice I said "want" but that was probably so obvious it was just a waste of effort lol
Pretty good breakdown except most World Series teams have only two Tier 1 starters. There hasn't been many teams in history with 4+ Tier 1 starters. The Astros prob haven't had it at any point in history and definitely haven't since 2017. The 90's Braves maybe had it a couple seasons when Avery was peak. Aces are not easy to come by
Thanks. I think I was just guilty of posting that before my 2nd cup of coffee. I think the Astros had 3 last year and in 2019 and 2004.
Hopefully they don't have to keep it up for too much longer. Considering they're holding the rotation together with ductape and baling wire, I'll take smoke and mirrors for now.
I was thinking France actually looked league average and has gotten league average results. Bielak is the one that is getting hit hard, walking a decent chunk, not striking out anyone, but is still getting great results regarding runs.
Bielak only had one truly terrible outing. He managed to avoid giving up runs, but he got hit hard in his second game. Wasn't great in his first game either, but the second one is what's really dragging his numbers down. In all the other games he's striking out over a batter an inning, and has overall looked solid. His numbers would look even better if Dusty hadn't gotten greedy in his last 2 starts and sent him back out for an extra inning. For his last 100 balls in play his xOBA and xBA have actually fallen below league average and his xSlg is only slightly above. His K and BB% are also at league average. Obviously his 3.19 ERA is overachieving, but these last 4 games having me thinking he may actually be able to be a legit league average end of the rotation starter, which is significantly better of an outlook than I had 2 weeks ago. I think France has more margin for error in his stuff, but he seems to badly miss his location too often.
Looking at pitch count and #times facing a hitter France and Bielak are different pitchers OPS of hitter. Pitch count: 1-25: Bielak .836, France 1.040 26-50: Bielak .720, France .949 51-75: Bielak: .817, France .648 76+: Bielak: 1.106, France .391 Bielak takes a little to get started and has a short window of effectiveness. France starts slow but gets better as his pitch count rises. By times through the order: 1: Bielak .716, France .861 2: Bielak .879, France .822 3: Bielak: 1.082, France .617 Once again, Bielak looks better suited to shorter outing, France looks to be better after seeing batters before. This tells me that if a spot starter is needed France would be a good candidate, but you don't want him in the bullpen. Bielak is better suited for a bullpen game opener with a short leash or a long reliever
