Miami could very well win. They have the best coach in the league and one of the most clutch players of all time. They are on a real roll and their defense is excellent. If their 3-pt shooting stays north of 40% they will be very hard to beat. This is a series I would never bet on. I see Denver as a very slight favorite.
Playoffs are a different animal than the regular season. Celtics torched everyone in the regular season as they were 2nd in offense and 2nd in defense. Nuggets finished 15th in defense Jokic, Aaron Gordon, MPj have size, but they tend to loof back defensively and can't match the speed of Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Lowry, Butler, Max Strus, Herro, Highsmith. They are going to put pressure on the Nuggets to get back. Goes with smaller teams running the bigger teams off the court. 3's vs 2's, in which the smaller team attacks the length of the court in order to get an open 3. Barkley asked Kenny Smith about open 3's in shoot-a-round and the game vs contested 3's. Kenny is correct, NBA players tend to shoot around 60% from 3 if open.....Miami vs a quicker (than Nuggets) Boston Celtics team got those open 3's. I noted the 3-point % of the Heat players during that series. They will get those open 3's vs the Nuggets. I also noted how Jokic plays a Drop Coverage (during the Suns) and rarely rotated to contest the right corner 3. The Lakers with only Austin Reaves and Rui H as consistent shooters couldn't take advantage of it......But the Heat will. Better shooters. Basically the Heat will have an open 3 in the right corner every trip down the court when Jokic is playing. 3's > 2's rule. Ham is not a good coach.....Pat Riley and Spoelstra with take note of it and exploit it by having the Heat make the extra pass. If Jokic cheats over.....Jamal Murray will be left alone under the rim and Bam-Butler will abuse him. Getting Murray in foul trouble. There is just too much room to cover when you have 5 guys that can hit 3's and Jokic just wants to defend the rim and you have to send an extra defenders or two in the paint to help Jokic. If Nuggets don't send help for Jokic.....Jokic is too slow to defend the paint by himself. Will get in foul trouble himself. Yule see. MPj is the only real zone buster, Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown need to see the ball go thru the rim as layups to feel good enough to make their 3's. Heat will live with dribble penetration by Jokic-Murray mid range 2's all game. As long as they don't get the others involved (covered). Heat players are quicker and longer and more confident now than they were in the regular season. Lowry was moved to backup unit.
As usual, I think your analysis is very good. Your prediction that Denver wouldn’t make it past the 2nd round was wrong and you made excuses about it. You also don’t take into account that Miami has been a much less effective 3 pt shooting team most of the season. You don’t entertain the idea that they might revert to norm and if they do they will probably lose the series. I’ll ask again, if Denver wins will you admit that you were wrong that a team with a slow unathletic center cannot win in the new NBA?
I like the Heat. Its cool to see a group of glue guys play great as a cohesive unit. Really good chemistry and like I said I LOVE Erik Spoelstra and can only wish that one day he'll coach up these Rockets in their prime. Denver has every bit the same sort of shooters. Murray, MPJ, KCP are all hitting 40% from deep for the entire playoffs. Jokic is hitting almost 50%! Nugs have only lost 3 playoff games so far and I dont see how MIA will contain Jokic - he's BETTER than both Tatum and Brown put together when you factor in what he does with the ball as a passer and his efficiency from 3 during the playoffs. If the Heat are going to have any chance at all it will be with Bam being more of a focal point and hopefully making Jokic work hard on defense and possibly get him into foul trouble.
I'm really looking forward to watching this series. I live near Miami now, and I love Butler's tenacity and their role players' grit, and our own Kyle Lowry, so I would be happy with them winning it. But it will also be glorious to see Jokic shut up the "you cannot win with an unathletic center archetype" idiots. Of course, they are already starting to pivot to "Jokic is one of a kind" and "but but he is like 0.8516 inches taller than Sengun".
In all fairness it's taken a little while for Denver to build the requisite team around Jokic. Up until this year it did hold true that a slow, unathletic center wasnt winning anything in the playoffs until you could properly hide him on defense and supply him with enough shooting - even during b2b MVP seasons. Its always cool to see ground breaking things happen and the player in question elevate his play to another level as it shows more than just a skilled player, but one who has that inner fire to be the best and show up when his team needs him most. It will be a cool story line to continue to watch because Himmy Butler is every bit the dog when it comes to winning time. Hoping for a fun Finals.
I do disagree with the slow centers can’t win concept, but it is a valid viewpoint and those that hold it are plainly not “idiots”.
I still remember him zooming around the court in a Rockets uniform... those were the days. He's definitely lost a step or three since then at age 37.
Lowry has a ring...elevates his play in the playoffs...Harden is the better player, but Lowry is more of a dawg.
A quick glance and it’s pretty clear that none of Lowrys numbers are better in the playoffs than the regular season. Scoring, rebounding, assists, efficiency, impact stats. All down in the postseason compared to the regular season.
I believe Zach Lowe said that in the regular season Denver scored 1.72 points per possession(small sample)against Miamis zone defense.
Sabonis and Jokic have already proven you can win with this type of player. And any player who has carried a team to a title is typically one of a kind. Sengun needs to get a respectable jump shot and be more sound defensively for this to happen. But it could happen. He's more athletic than Joker but does have issues with big centers that Joker does better against.
Not the same shooters. You will see. I remember when the Nuggets were going to be number 1 seed and they drop intentionally to avoid a small ball Houston Rockets team that was finishing either #4 or #5.....they didn't want any part of Jokic vs a Small Ball Harden led team. Avoided us until the 3rd round. His cast is better; but it's still the same Jokic. Small ball teams will run him off the court. Warriors were 1-3 (W-L) vs Nuggets in regular season last year.....but the Warriors ran Jokic out of the gym in the playoffs 4-1 (W-L). Now the Nuggets will face a Small Ball team that can sprint relentlessly for easy 3:s. Forces the bigs og Gordon and MPj to get back sooner....which will hurt their rebounding. Bam will get about 16 rebounds a game. Miami is getting acclimated to the mile high air since Monday. They won't get caught by that like the other teams rushed into game 1 as soon as they arrived. Game 1 or 2 to Miami. Miami then win game 3, 4 and 5 in Miami. But I give Spoelstra one extra game to catch up to my brain. Haha P.S. the Celtics were good shooters before the series as well. Allowed them to be 2nd in the association in offense.....sometimes chasing a bunch of 26 year olds running the floor relentlessly takes a little starch out of the legs.
