Ausar Vs. Amen Thompson

"But on this January morning, Amen and Ausar are competitors. Each week, all 30 OTE players vie to see who can make the most shots. The contest is tracked and calculated by the Noah Shooting System, which provides real-time feedback on the mechanics of every attempt.

Amen is in second place this week with 3,396 makes. Ausar is first with 3,794—and counting. Now, Amen is really burning to shoot. He doesn’t want to be outdone by anyone, especially his brother. Yet after an Ausar miss, Amen snaps back into supportive brother mode: “Let’s go, Ausar! You got this, bro.”

 

I think both wash out fairly quickly because they no longer get to play against untalented 16 year old kids....and that was a big part of their success.

 

Well they both still suck at shooting...and yet they did improve their draft stock. So maybe they know better than us on how best to improve their game.

Shooting is definitely a focus, as I believe they incorporate it in most (if not every) basketball drill they do. That said, it is not the *only* thing they work on improving. This idea that "well they didn't improve at shooting, so they must not work hard" idea is just silly. It completely ignores the other aspects of their games that they've been working on (ball handling, finishing, footwork, reads, passing into shooting pockets, increased muscle, etc).

If that's the path you want to take in your analysis, so be it.

I do admit that you can only work with the data you have, but of course you need to properly understand the data you have (otherwise, you're stuck with garbage in -> garbage out). I'm not going to assume we have the next Steph Curry because some guy shot 3/5 on 3s in 3 games of college basketball. HEY HE SHOT 60% ON 3s, HE'S THE BEST SHOOTER EVER!!!

It is also fair to conclude some of these things while using other pieces of data (such as shooting form, shot attempts, etc.). I'm mostly just trying to point out the sample size here is *very* small, and as such, we shouldn't take the percentages at face value necessarily. We're not working with the same sample sizes we normally see with college and NBA players.

Um...we're talking about 3pr, right? Simmons had a very consistent rate throughout his career as far as I could tell, college and NBA. Well I guess going from almost 1% to almost 2% is quite the jump (and he did the latter in the NBA).

Are you thinking Amen will have a 3pr similar to Simmons in the NBA? That would be a very steep drop if so, and I'm not sure why that would happen necessarily (unless Udoka told him not to shoot, which wouldn't make sense to me).

I'm nitpicking some terrible flawed logic mostly.

Though I've also argued that an Amen without a jump shot could still be a very effective NBA player (potentially multi-time all-star if the other aspects of his game hit). I (and others) have done that in other posts/threads so much that I really don't care to repeat it here, but if you *really* want to go down that road, I can re-post those ideas here.

None of that is ideal mind you, but it also isn't "BIGGEST NBA BUST IN THE HISTORY OF NBA BUSTS" that some people like to think.

 

I feel both have a high chance of being the guard version of KJ McDaniels, a mediocre player. It also worries ne how broke Amen's shot is. I'm personally a bit higher on Ausar, but i'm not a pro scout.

I meant it as in an athletic player that is trash. It's true that Amen is a much better passer but how much am i supposed to trust his skillset when he plays against little kids and questionable competition. I'm all for developing young talent with upside but i have my personal reservations with the Thompson twins.

 

This probably says more about the Rockets than anything, but I think there's a decent chance either of the two starting centers on the other main ote teams would have also started for the Rockets.

Well mostly because they're lob threats, not because they're better than Sengun. Call it the Law of Fernando.

 

The Twins did not improve their draft stock lol. They even dropped since Amen was consensus top 3 before the season started nut Brandon Miller edged his way in.

I never said the Twins didn't work hard but if you wanna talk who shows results on the court as a result of his hard work that's obviously Ausar.

Sp what if we're not working with a large sample size? Ausar still the better shooter than Amen that's just a fact. Nobody is taking these %s literally because OTE is a joke league, you're the only one doing that. But its obvious comparing the two Ausar is the better shooter and that's also why he's the better twin.

Amen's 3 pt percentage is effectively 0 in the NBA imo. If he's shooting 20% in a joke league thats pretty much in the teens in the NBA.

Nobody said biggest bust in NBA history again you think you're nitpicking flawed logic but you are actually making strawman arguments. Amen won't be the worst bust in the NBA because at the end of the day he's extremely athletic and is 6'7, thats always worth something. But if he can't provide adequate spacing he is not gonna be a winning player in the NBA unless you make him the centerpiece and warp your entire line up around him. Even Rondo can hit an open shot.

 

If Amen works that hard why his shot never improved? Amen watches so much tape yet still get caught ball watching all the time? I think thats an even bigger red flag lol

 

And I was explaining why you're wrong to think he's just a trash athlete. He has real, legitimate basketball skills that make his floor as a player much higher than guys like KJ McDaniels. We've gone over the OTE competition level thing ad nauseum, so I'm not going to do it again, but suffice to say, it doesn't matter as much as you (and others of your mindset) think it does. Just like it didn't stop their teams from drafting LeBron, Kobe, Kevin Garnett, Tracy McGrady, etc straight out of high school, playing in OTE will not stop the Thompson Twins from being drafted highly, because front offices don't think like fans do, they have teams of professional scouts who have devoted their careers to evaluating prospects by y'know... actually watching them play. If those scouts tell their GM "these guys are legit" the GM is going to take that seriously. And that's really the end of it.

Don't be surprised when one or both of these kids gets taken in the top 5.

 

I don't think it's a definitive statement that a PG who can't shoot before his rookie year cannot last in the NBA. Giddey came in shooting like 29 percent from 3 in the Aussie league and then ended his rookie season shooting 26 percent from the 3. His form is also pretty wack, but he has gotten a lot better in just one year and despite his shooting he's considered to be top 3 sophomore.

If Amen is really that great of a passer, we have time to let him develop a jumpshot. I feel like Ben Simmons is an anomaly case in terms of refusing to improve, the guy has mental issues. I would say a vast majority of normal NBA guards improve their shooting to adequate levels as their career progresses.

 

If shooting was easy to improve the following players would have done it.

Spoiler

Jalen Green
Josh Christopher
Darius Days
Frank Kaminsky
Boban
KMJ
Jabari Smith (college to rookie year)
Tate
Tyty (college to rookie year)

Most players shooting drop when they first enter the league, even if they were decent in the previous league/college. Having a strong baseline coming into the NBA, is preferred bare minimum especially when spending a top pick.

..improvement is not linear... people see 'down' stagnant years all the time. We're asking our guys to be league average at least and not be a liability as a spacer. Instead of cherry-picking a superstar from another team for comp, it's easier to look inside our own backyard.

 

I haven't read everything on these kids, but why if you're an elite prospect would you not challenge yourself in College or at least the G-League versus whatever the hell OTE is?

The above question makes me question their competitiveness and whoever there advisor(s) are. If you're this elite athletically, why would you not showcase that in the NCAA or at least in the G-League? Hell go to one of the overseas pro-leagues and test yourself against men, not boys. Huge red flag for me, but maybe I'm missing something.

I'd be very hesitant taking these guys early, especially at #4. Oh and they can't shoot? Wait, they're 20 years old too--geez! This sounds like a recipe for disappointment.

Help me, what am I missing?

 

I’ve done about 15 seconds of scouting on these 2, but based on who doesn’t want them in this thread, I’m leaning towards trading into the top 5 and drafting both of them.

 

Here's a mock draft from Sam Vecenie (who I lean on heavily with draft expertise):
https://theathletic.com/3407947/2022/07/12/2023-nba-mock-draft-wembanyama/
That was from 7/12/2022 (i.e., after the OTE's first season).

Now from earlier this month:
https://theathletic.com/4471377/2023/05/02/nba-draft-2023-big-board-prospects-wembanyama/
(funnily enough, I guess Ausar didn't improve while Amen did)

I'm guessing some mocks may have had them around 3-5 range after that first season, but I actually made this point because I was using the rankings OTE themselves threw out during the a game last year (I was half-listening, but I think it was 7-9 range). OTE is generally pretty...optimistic with their projected rankings to say the least too.

Not really a huge point to argue about, but I think the twins did little to hurt their draft ranking, and if anything, their play over the last season might have bumped them up a few spots (guess this applies to Amen more so than Ausar).

And yes, you didn't make that claim about the twins. That was me largely exaggerating a point I've seen from others. Apologies if it came across otherwise (and I did this with some other points too...it is a bad habit/style to my style).

I have seen some (again, not you necessarily) use the percentages from the OTE season as proof of a dramatic difference between the two's ability to shoot. Or some even using those numbers as proof that Ausar is actually a knock-down shooter, potentially capable of hitting 35-40% in the NBA. Perhaps the predictions are valid (and there is plenty of valid data to support a wide range of predictions), but I don't think the OTE percentages themselves mean a whole lot. Due to the sample size issues.

Personally (and I think I said this earlier), I *do* think Ausar is the better shooter. I'm skeptical he's significantly better, and I think in order to be effective in the NBA primarily as an off-ball player (as a wing), he *has* to have a better shot. Ausar could be 3% better than Amen, but Amen will be the much more "playable" guy in the NBA (unless Ausar gets utilized more on-ball, which might be a smart idea). I'm not sure you necessarily disagree with this, but just throwing out thoughts at this point.

Again, I'm talking about 3pt rate...so why does his shooting percentage necessarily in this specific point?

I'm not super optimistic that Amen would be above 30% from 3 (especially with the Rockets), but as long as he's putting up around 20% of his shots as 3s, I think that will help with spacing. Certainly more so than Ben's 1%-2%. I have similar goals with Sengun as well (and Mark Schindler made this exact point too).

 

There's certainly a financial aspect to going to OTE vs alternatives, especially since I assume the twins got bigger deals than other guys. Also get a lot of exposure and marketing. They basically are the faces of OTE after all.

I haven't dug deep into why they chose this route, but I do believe they (Amen in particular I think?) pointed out that they really liked the structure and coaching resources OTE offered to provide. They basically have 24/7 access to decent practice facilities (better than the Rockets? ), and they can pretty much get one-on-one coaching *almost* anytime as well. They received training from Penny Hardaway, Mike Miller, Kevin Ollie, etc., they were able to play some exhibition games against pros and other young prospects like Bronny James, and they can pretty much focus entirely on basketball (from 8AM to 8PM). Maybe the games are a bit of a joke, but all the development stuff is top tier. At least in theory.

Personally, I think they should have just gone to the G League, college, or gone with some other pro league. I think some of this OTE stuff sounds good in theory, but I'm not sure these resources were necessarily as good as advertised. Or maybe they were, and I'm wrong about that. And to be fair, I think playing for the Ignite would have been problematic as well (the Ignite program is deeply problematic as a developmental program as well IMO, though better than OTE IMO).

 

They went to OTE while high school students. Were not eligible for college or g league. OTE is specifically tailored to help prepare for the NBA and keep college eligibility or get paid.

 

Thanks RC (that was my dad's fav cola), that certainly helps me understand why they thought that would be more beneficial. There is certainly something to be said for a total focus on bball and the extra training with former pros. Perhaps this new route proves to be ok if they're both drafted in top 4-7 players. I know someone who's runs player personnel for an NBA team. When I get a chance, I'll ask him what he thinks for the whole OTE approach.

 

They were already lotto picks and remained lotto picks. But shooting was def their biggest question mark not sure how anybody can deny that. Ausar understood that assignment Amen didn't. Amen's play didn't bump him up it's his superior length, insane athleticism and natural gift for playmaking. Nobody is ranking him high from his OTE performance since OTE is a joke league.

Even if you disregard the OTE percentages, on the mechanics alone Ausar is a better shooter than Amen. It's not me saying practically every deep dive vid on youtube is saying this. If Amen can become a league average shooter than Ausar can become an elite shooter. If Amen never becomes an average shooter Ausar will at worst be an average shooter. Ausar is just further along and has shown an ability to improve his shot with work whereas Amen worked his butt of apparently and still has shooting mechanics that are out of whack.



Amen and Ausar are similar prospects. Ausar can also be the point guard of a team, he may not be as good a playmaker as Amen, but he makes up for it with shooting and defense. Ausar is more playable than Amen because Amen can't shoot, he is a one tricker he can only play pg. Ausar can play positions 1-3 and is a lot more versatile. Ausar will def see the floor more than Amen because his shooting alone will dictate this. Amen only gonna see the floor if a team like the Rox draft him and feel like they need to play him even if he sucks ass like what they did with Jabari. How many rookie pgs who can't shoot saw PT? Killian Hayes? Jalen Suggs? Dyson Daniels? Giddey? These guys all got rooted to the bench till their shot improved or their team doesn't care if they got a scrub pg on the floor.

Sengun is different cuz he plays in the paint, any 3 you can get from him is a bonus. Amen is playing in the perimeter, if he is shooting 20% of his shots from 3 and he si shooting below 30% on those opponents are gonna have a field day with him in the playoffs. They gonna zone him all day long and force that % up till he either isn't shooting at all or he is bricking all these shots Westbrook style.