Ausar Vs. Amen Thompson

Whomever we pick at 4 I will trust that the team has done their due diligence on that player. I’m sure they will have private workouts and really get a chance to see them up close and understood their fit with the team. Jump shots can be fixed with proper instruction and work. I think the playmaking ability of Amen makes him a good fit for us right now. We can develop the rest of his game over time. Having Ime and his staff in charge of all of this gives me confidence

 

Nobody should get mad at anyone for having a different opinion. That's fine. But I do think people are overblowing the OTE thing a little bit.

Let's clarify something: There are three actual OTE teams, and they also played against three prep schools. Almost all of the starters on the actual OTE teams are age 18-19, and they are legitimate athletes who could hold their own in D1 college ball. A lot of these players on both the OTE teams as well as the prep schools are 4-5 star college recruits, many of whom will be legitimate draft prospects in their own right when they are eligible in a year's time.

It's a vast oversimplification to say "they played against high schoolers". And no front office is going to write these guys off for that reason. The most important aspect in evaluating basketball prospects is, and will always be, scouting. If scouts tell their front offices "these guys are the real deal" nobody is going to bat an eye at taking them in the top half of the lottery.

 

I've been on record liking Ausar a lot more than Amen.

Amen reminds me of Ben Simmons. Extreme athlete and with natural plsymaking skills you can't teach. But the danger with gifted athletes like these is they rest on their laurels similar to WB or Ben Simmons. These two are extreme gym rats and grinded it out everyday but they never added tools in their bag. What I've seen is in two years of OTE Amen hasnt really reinvented himself everything you can say now about him still applied his first year in OTE.

Ausar oth reminds me of Kawhi, he has the ability to lock himself in the gym and not let himself out till he gains a skill like a robot. He started out as bad a shooter as Amen, now he is much better than Amen and also a lot more comfortable taking shots. He is similarly gifted like brother, but Ausar is a lot more disciplined and skills based, he plays defense, scores better and even playmakes in a methodical fashion.

So why is Amen ranked higher than Ausar? Well it's because of Performance Punish, since Ausar developed shooting skills and also became a really good defender he gets stuck at the wing position whereas since Amen never really done anything more than be a pg. A 6'6 pg sounds like a franchise player while a 6'6 wing is like typical lotto talent but in reality they are very similar prospects and Ausar can also be a point guard esp on this team.

Amen is Def more talented but I like the guy who has demonstrated skill progression. With Udoka and a better coaching a guy like that is gonna be miles better than a naturally gifted individual. Look at Franz Wagner. He got picked out of the top 5 but this season he was undoubtedly the best rookie of 2022 class. Or how about Austin Reeves? Dude was undrsfted but blew up cuz of his varied skills. You want guys like that, players who have shown they can expand their game instead of just being limited to the type of player they always have been.

 

We aren't nba teams and scouts aren't telling us they are the real though, that's the thing. All we really have are public information and enthusiast content creators telling us what they think based also on public information.

The reason why people bring up OTE a lot is cuz playing against guys younger than you makes you look much better than if you played in Euroleague or NCAA or GLeague where there are opponents older than you. Guys like Drew Timme are nowhere near as talented as Paolo Banchero but the reason why Timme lorded it over everyone else is because he was much older, developed and experienced than everyone else. For the twins it is the same they look like supermen because they are the Drew Timme and Luke Garza of OTE. The best comparison I can make is the preseason league where guys like Omer Yurtseven look like franchise players playing vs rookies. Then the regular season happens and he can't even get playing time.

 

The Ben Simmons comps are unbelievably lazy and worn out at this juncture. Ben10 was never one to work diligently at his craft, and had known character and competitiveness issues that have haunted him his entire career. By all accounts Amen and Ausar are both incredibly hard workers and even better people. What are we doing here?

 

Amen works hard for 2 year still shoots 65% ft and 23% from 3? Yeah I mean what are you doing here? Everybody knows Amen's biggest knock is shooting in 2 yrs there's been little to no improvement. Either that's just his limit or he doesn't add tools to his bag take your pick.

Ben Simmons got called out for competitiveness and being pouty he didn't get called out for being lazy. In fact if you look at Ben Simmons rookie year he was pretty jacked and was consensus ROY. How can you say he didn't work diligently on his craft when he was already extremely advanced as a rookie? You think he came off the womb with 6 pack and an all nba defender or what? To pretend Simmons is lazy like Melo is what's wrong and worn out.

The main problem with Simmons is he never evolved past who he was as a rookie. He started out as an athletic playmaking beast with no shot and stayed that way till last year. That's the same risk with Amen since to me having 2 yrs to work on one single thing and showing minimal improvement is a big ass red flag. Expanding your game is different from just keeping in shape and working what you already know. You can be in the gym every day grinding your ass off but you still just work on what you already do well. Amen hasnt shown me he can expand his game while Ausar has done that in the same time frame.

Rox don't have a magic shot doctor like Pelicans or Orlando Magic in fact Jabari lost his shot last year after Rox staff messed with his mechanics so we really expect Amen to become a sharpshooter here? Lol

 

I think the "he worked only on shooting for 2 years and still shoots 65% FT and 23%" argument is pretty flawed for a couple of reasons:

1) Shooting is a major focus, but they're clearly working on improving all aspects of their game. I feel like people think Amen and Ausar are just putting up set shot 3s for 8-10 hours every day for 2 years, and completely ignoring the other aspects of their game (because apparently they mastered those aspects already). You can watch exactly how their work outs typically go, which is honestly only something you can say about the twins vs other prospects.

2) I don't think raw percentages are necessarily a strong indicator of improvement (especially if one or both brothers have been tweaking their mechanics throughout the season). I think it is even more bizarre to use these percentages to indicate one brother is substantially better than the other in making improvements. Do people realize the sample sizes they're talking about when using these numbers? We're talking about 16 regular season games with 43 total 3s for Amen and 60 for Ausar. We're in the territory of where if one guy hits or missed 1-2 of his shots, the numbers can jump quite a bit (Amen making a shot and Ausar missing one puts them around ~26% and ~28%). Ausar was on fire in the playoffs, but kinda the same story there (Amen making one additional 3 and Ausar missing just one of his makes would result in 35%/36%). Also, I alluded to this earlier, but the way they gets 3s is a bit different (Ausar seems to get slightly more via open catch and shoot variety).

In comparison, Jabari took 188 3s in college and 391 3s in the NBA. Brandon Miller has taken 276 3s in college. Scoot Henderson actually has similar-ish totals (68 total 3s), which funnily enough is the other guy that people like to make giant conclusions about with raw percentages (though often using the wrong ones).

Having said all of that, if you want to argue that Ausar is more confident in his shot (as he does have a decently higher 3pr), and it might be concerning that Amen isn't as confident in his shot, that might be a better argument. Though even then, I think Amen's 3pr is still way higher than someone like Ben Simmons for example (seems like he'd be 20% at least vs Ben's...2% at best?).

And also to be clear, I don't have the highest of hopes that Amen will "fix" his shot (assuming "fix" means something like 33%-35% 3pt shooting or better). I do think he's working hard at it, but yeah unless/until Rockets bring Ben Sullivan and a bunch of other miracle workers (because we need help across the roster), I wouldn't count on that being a given with the Rockets development staff. I would hope the 20% 3pr mostly sticks (or goes up a bit), but that's about the only optimistic-ish assumption I'll make about this shooting.

 

We do know there are at least a couple front offices that have Ausar higher on their boards. I don't think it's that out there even though I disagree.

I wonder if there is any chance at all that Miller and Ausar get taken second and third in some order, allowing the Rockets to have their pick between Scoot and Amen.

Can't imagine what the chaos would be like in the GARM if they have the opportunity to pick Scoot at #4 and take Amen over him.

 

I agree. I still think Scoot will go second and then either Miller or Amen third. I think they're in the same tier and it just depends on the specific front office which one is going to be higher on their board. Who knows though, crazier things have happened.

Another weird, unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario could be, what if the twins go second and third, leaving the Rockets to choose between Scoot and Miller. (If that happens they damn well better choose Scoot or Stone will be getting some hate mail from me, haha.)

 

I feel both have a high chance of being the guard version of KJ McDaniels, a mediocre player. It also worries ne how broke Amen's shot is. I'm personally a bit higher on Ausar, but i'm not a pro scout.

 

I do not think that the Hornets will take Henderson. Henderson and LaMelo both need possession. I dont see Lamelo being down with that pic especially because he’s been there for a few years and they really have not fielded at a decent roster around him.

then it comes down to Portland at three do they trade the pick for a veteran? It seems like if they do so they’re going to be getting crappy value. I think that Portland makes the pick and takes the best young player to plug in the Lillard 2023-2026 era. I think that is a twin.

I like Henderson fine but I don’t see Derrek Rose, I see Eric Bledsoe. Just personal opinion. I think that I am in goes in the top three and we are either left with Henderson or Miller.

considering what we have seen transpire with Boston, I think that the dream of trading for Jaylen Brown is dead. If Brooklyn has some unfathomable price on bridges, then the answer is easy. We take Cam from then and send them to 26 and 56. Bridges will ask out after a year.

I love our core 5 guys. Porter, Green, Sengun, Smuith and Eason. They are all incredibly young. We shorted them all with the coaching the last couple years. Now we have a system and coach we can believe in. All 5 guys are super young and under contract for 3-4 years. Adding another player that has top end potential is awesome. Looking at the fantastic five, the draft pick really needs to be either Amen or Jarace Walker.

 

KJ McDaniels was a very poor passer. Amen Thompson is generally regarded as the best passer in this draft class. That's one of the reasons his floor is much higher than that type of player.

There is essentially no chance Amen averages 0.6 assists per game like McDaniels did. Even if Amen is not very successful and becomes regarded as a bust, that would look more like Justise Winslow or something along those lines. Even then, I think that's underselling his passing abilities. His playmaking will give him enough value to stay on the floor barring injury, IMO. A more athletic Killian Hayes who scores more often/higher efficiency in the paint?

Rodney Stuckey is another comp I dropped in a different thread.

Ausar is also a very good passer for a wing (draws Iguodala comparisons).

 

1. Shooting is the major flaw for the Twins and they've known that for years. If they wanted to increase their draft stock then shooting should be the major thing they worked on. If they didn't realize that then that's their problem, I mean obviously Ausar understood the assignment that's the reason I'm higher on him then Amen.

2. But Ausar didn't miss one more shot and Amen didn't hit one more shot. We only work with what we've got and all I can say is the practice and work Ausar has done on his shot has paid dividends esp in the playoffs. I can see him working on his shot in the NBA given how much work he has already done on his own. Amen hasnt really done **** and if we get him we gonna be relying on Udoka to work magic to make him a passable shooter which doesn't make any sense to me when he can work magic on Ausar and turn him into an elite 3 pt shooter.

3. Ben Simmons got his %s in ncaa which is a far more competitive league than ote. 35% in OTE is prob 25% in ncaa or something.

4. If you don't think Amen won't develop a 3 pt shot what exactly are we arguing here? Pg with no 3 pt shot is useless in the modern NBA. I don't care how athletic or how much of a passer Amen is he gonna be a bust at 4 without a shot. Ben Simmons literally the only pg starter in the NBA without a shot and we know how he ended up right? Maybe Amen puts up numbers in the regular season but just like with Simmons in the playoffs team just gonna go zone and freeze the entire Rox offense out. That's why Ausar is superior he was the better twin when they were younger, he is the better twin in OTE since he won finals mvp and he will more than likely be the better player in the NBA as well.

 

Maybe. But where do they trade?

Let’s say a random team outside of the top five trades up for Henderson to #2. How far back do they want to go?
I think that the furthest back Charlotte would trade would be to number six. I think that if they do move back they need to be set on getting Ausar or Cam. Both players profile very well next to LaMelo. Basically, if your Ball I think you have to be skeptical about Charlotte’s ability to build around you and I think Thompson and Whitmore represent the end of the options in the draft tgat can be clear “wing-men”.


Detroit at #5 won’t be trading up for a point guard. Maybe Orlando. Maybe Charlotte takes #6 and #11. BUT with as much as Banquero is going to want the ball is Henderson really a good option?

 

If you look at Ausar's shooting improvement, it implies Amen's either not working hard, a slow learner or REALLY stupid (and nor prioritizing his only crippling weakness). Those are the only explanations for his poor shooting and none of them bode well for his future NBA career.

 

Um, you ever heard of De'Aaron Fox? Dude has had multiple seasons under 30% from 3.

And of course Russ managed to play half his career in the post-GSW era as a sh*tty three point shooter.

Already know you're going to say those guys didn't win a ring, but my answer would be Russ could have and the problem was not his bad shooting (just like the problem with Ben Simmons was not his bad shooting), and Fox still very well may.