Amilcar Chirinos was assigned to Fayetteville today. He was one of three 20 year old pitchers who dominated the DSL last year for the Astros along with Jose Fluery and Jose Guedez (who got promoted when Knorr went to Asheville). In 31.1 innings last season he struck out 46 with 12 walks and a 1.44 ERA. I'm guessing he's taking Mancini's spot in the Fayetteville rotation. The Astros pitching depth at High A and below is pretty interesting.
Andrew Taylor and Jose Guedez combined on a shutout for Fayetteville tonight. Taylor: 5 IP, 4 H, BB, 4 K Guedez: 4 IP, H, 3 BB, 4 K Zach Cole hit a three-run homer (6), which was just one of three hits the Woodpeckers put up. Leosdany Molina had the other two hits (singles) and scored twice.
Joey Loperfido with his 6th home run of the season (5 with Corpus): Will Wagner doubled twice out of the leadoff spot in Corpus Christi's 4-1 win over Tulsa.
Loperfido is going to cross 100 AA pa this weekend and he has walked more than he struck out while maintaining the very high ISO that he showed in High A. Very rare combo of plate discipline, contact, and power. He’s also stolen 8 bases in 22 AA games so he obviously has some speed. If he keeps this up for another month, it might be a point at which we start talking about him potentially getting called up this year (maybe as the everyday LF if Brantley can’t come back). But either way he is looking like an elite prospect and I really really really hope they do not trade him unless it’s for a controllable star player.
Both are decent players. Both will lose value the closer they get to FA. It will be interesting to see if they think about moving them this off-season (at least one of them) or keep them all around and figure Gilbert takes Tuckers spot in 2 years. If you really believe in him and you aren’t bringing Tucker back… gauging interest in him makes sense.
If this kerps up, its going to be hard to jystify keeping Drew out of Houston. I'm predicting the Hunter Brown treatment. Give him some late year and playoff exposure but keep rookie eligibility intact. And most likely a starting role next year. He's already top 100 so could bring an extra premium draft pick. Either Chas or Jake, maybe both would be out of a role and roster spot. But unless he stumbles how can they do anything else?
If you aren’t going to move a current OF then I’d wait until June of next year after I think Super 2 is done to bring him up. I’d rather have him in 2030 than him getting 250 AB’s and being playoff eligible September 23-June 24.
I understand " if you aren't going to move a current outfielder." But unless Gilbert stumbles I don't agree the extra year is worth the negativity. It would be George Springer or Kris Bryant all over again. Organizations get reputations about how they treat their players and The Astros do not want that as a mark against them when recruiting free agents ( MLB or international) or trying to extend young players. I think Brown would think this especially important. Its a good problem to have - trade away Chas or Jake to improve the pitching if it comes to that.
I would agree with you on this point 90% of the time, but with the Astros offensive struggles, and the Astros being probably close to good enough to win a WS - I think it depends on how much better the Astros think Gilbert is compared to other internal options.
The way the current game is played, with frequent injuries/rest and the realized benefit of being able to deploy matchups, there is room for 5 OF on the roster. So if Gilbert is ready, there is room for all 5 of Tucker, Meyers, McCormick, Gilbert, and Alvarez. The real implication of Gilbert being ready this season is whether or not Brantley comes back. If Brantley is healthy/productive then Gilbert is probably slowplayed and not brought up until late in the year if at all; keep in mind Meyers can still be optioned to the minors if needed. Gilbert's development (along with Barber and Loperfido) also makes it a lot easier to swallow including Leon, Dirden, and/or Julks in a trade for a secondary player at this year's deadline. Of course I don't have an issue trading McCormick or Meyers if they are properly valued as solid everyday caliber CF with years of control remaining, I just have a hard time seeing any team out there valuing them that way.
He will probably cool off, but i'm pretty sure no one of his age or younger has ever put together >20BB%, <20K%, and >.250 ISO across 100 PA or more in the Texas League. Video game numbers.
I know this is VERY early and VERY against the grain but. . . If Gilbert, Barber, Dirden, Loperfido, Melton, Clifford, and/or maybe others I missed, continue this same progression next year, would it be the right move to trade Tucker in the 2024-2025 offseason? Less likely but maybe the 2024 trade deadline?
That was what I was getting at. Have to move him no later than deadline next year to return enough value to potentially be worth it and a couple of those guys have to hit for sure.
But for a team in contention it is very very rare to trade away a top producer regardless of return or potential replacement. Contending teams don't look at potential future benefit if there is even 1% chance it hurts the current year even 1%.
Fangraphs has minor league data back to 2006. There are 2 players in that time period that in AA have >20% BB <20% K rate, and a higher ISO than Loperfido right now. Logan O'Hoppe did it in the Southern League post trade deadline last season, and whoever Kila Ka'aihue is did it in 2008 for the Royals. O'Hoppe was a 22 year old catcher who made top 100 lists this offseason, and Kila was a 24 year old 1B who made the majors later that year.
This is one area where the Astros really benefit - their player evaluation group is at WORST one of the 4 best in baseball with Tampa, Los Angeles and Cleveland. So, the Astros could potentially get unheralded minor leaguers that make a big impact. Remember, they got a catcher that few gave a second thought to when they traded Myles Straw and now he is probably the catcher of the future for the Astros. To come to think of it....... McCormick was a non-prospect when I remember having someone with the Astros say he would or was close to making the playoff roster after not even playing in the big leagues, and that he would be in the mix with his talent......... and then not long afterwards hearing the same Astros employee say that the Astros had a non prospect centerfielder that wasn't putting up numbers really, but they were reworking his approach and he would be in the big leagues and contribute...... and Meyers did until he was hurt...... and then I heard about an all glove shortstop that didn't go to a big college and didn't even hit in college - but they would "fix" him because he was a competitor ------ I digress.
Not while you are trying to win championships If you believe he can help, you bring him up. I'm almost certain Dana Brown agrees
