You know, not to be a debbie downer, but I think we need to prepare ourselves for the possibility that when Altuve is back in the lineup, he actually performs worse than Dubon for a time. I mean, the guy didn't really have a spring training, and he went through a pretty significant slump in the playoffs last year. I know he hit well in the WBC...I'm just worried we are all pinning our hopes on the offense turning things around when he comes back, but it might still be tough going for a couple weeks. I do think, like Bregman, in the end Altuve will have a good season.
I would just like to point out: Rangers are 26-17 Astros are 24-19 Rangers have 6 games vs A's left Astros have 13 games vs A's left I think the Astros are in pretty good shape.
Yea it shouldn't be lost on anyone that the Rangers have played the Royals and A's a combined 13 times and went 10-3 against them. Teams with a .311 and .222 winning percentage, respectively. Meanwhile the Astros haven't yet played either team. We're about to play Oakland 6 of the next 9 and we play KC twice in September.
Remaining schedules Astros and Rangers. 119 games remaining. 10 vs each other 83 are common ( ex. Both have 10 vs Angels) Remaining 26: Astros: 7 vs A's 6 vs Royals 4 vs Yankees 3 vs Orioles 3 vs Reds 1 vs Red Sox 1 vs D'Backs 1 vs Rockies Rangers: 6 vs White Sox 4 vs Twins 4 vs Tigers 3 vs Rays 3 vs Blue Jays 3 vs Pirates 3 vs Giants.
Astros- 8 Hard 17 easy 1 meh Rangers: 10 easy 10 hard. 6 meh. Biggest advantage- they have to play us- we get to play them.
The Astros have begun their initial descent from baseball's top echelon One of his tweets linking to that article says "In the short term, Houston remain playoff caliber. But the loss of 72% of its baseball ops dept. from 2018, the loss of more than half of its coordinator-level and ML coaches + erosion of farm talent & questionable acquisitions (Abreu, Siri) is adding up" Interesting hot take from Travis Sawchick. I like the guy's writing usually but this one's a bit off. He seems fixated on the turnover from 2018 and conveniently ignores they are the reigning world series champions a solid 5 years after that 2018 year. He points out that the Astros are currently projected to win 90 wins despite having had a ton of injuries and underperformance. He states that the club has consistently had low farm rankings lately while ignoring the significant amount of contributions that have come from the farm over the same period. All in all just a really weird/reactionary take..... he'd fit in well here.
Yeah that’s a shockingly bad and poorly researched take. Pointing to the Abreu signing is odd given the current GM was not involved in that. Pointing to losing Strom is odd given how successful the pitching staff was last season. The Astros recent faded dominance this season is more a factor of injuries and better competition than any kind of organizational talent degradation. They were very lucky to move into the crummiest division in baseball and it stayed pretty crummy up until last season, and really only this season are there teams that projected to actually be competitive with Houston over the course of the season. It was bound to happen eventually, but it by no means this Houston team is a lot worse than prior years. Just like I was concerned that losing Strom would be an inflection point in the org, I think Altuve’s future years will mark a big time potential shift for Houston. He is pretty clearly the beating heart of the offense if not the entire team, and when he starts it decline or when he retires, there is a chance the Astros will decline dramatically. I think culture and chemistry is an important separator of good teams from great teams and I don’t know if it’s something that can be manufactured. I am hopeful that the Astros will find the type of stars that can keep the talent level high and provide the chemistry needed to win the big prizes. Yordan Alvarez is a start. Drew Gilbert and Jeremy Pena are also potential franchise icons. But regardless, just looking at the projections, Houston should be the favorite to win their division for at least the next 2-3 seasons.
Looking to the future is what I do. This season is the bottom for Houston for the next several years. Not many teams can contend for a title in their worst season for the foreseeable future but that is what is happening. A new manager and a lot of youth will be the hallmarks beginning next season. The hardest part will be letting go of the past. Some will find it unthinkable to trade Tucker at the break or maybe after the 2004 season but he will bring back a lot and a 2005 outfield of Gilbert, Melton, and Barber will be cheap, controllable and Elite for years to come. And with Gomez and Baez waiting in the wings we will be good in the outfield for the rest of the 20s. Letting Altuve and Bregman retire after 2004 will be worse but an infield of Clifford, Loperfido, Pena, & DeZenzo will be a better infield to build on and perhaps will contain a couple of a couple of stars too. Lee and Diaz will be a much better catching duo than most people believe and I do not think the Astros will ever allow themselves to be without a respectable prospect at the position again. the outlook at pitcher is less clear, but a new starter every year is not unheard of even from our bottom of the barrel farm. Continuing and even expanding Luhnow's piggyback pitching system as Brown did this year gives us a lot more pitching to look at in the minors and allows more chances for success. Sit back and enjoy.
Do you actually think Altuve and Bregman are going to retire after next season? Altuve will be 33. Bregman 30. That’s insane. I will be totally completely and utterly shocked if Altuve is not extended by Houston. Barring a catastrophic injury he will play until he is at least 38. Bregman might bolt if he either declines enough to need a change of scenery or if he performs well enough to warrant a 6 year deal. Also, what do you think a hypothetical trade of Tucker would look like this season or after 2024 that would be better than keeping him and collecting the draft pick when he leaves?
We have too much OF depth and it's gotta be used to trade for bullpen pieces or starters. Especially with Gilbert waiting. I hope Dana does everything in his power to make him a big leaguer this year.
I agree with your idea but I think this will be a much more gradual transition. Altuve and Bregman will sign extensions next year. I just think they both want to stay and Brown has said he wants them to retire Astros. Altuve: 2yrs $50M + players option $10M. $20M AAV and thru age 36 or 37 season. Bregman: 5 yrs $150M. $30M AAV and thru age 35 season. Maldy, Brantley, Maton, and Stanek along with either Meyers or McCormick will be gone next year. Neris, and the other of Meyers or McCormick will be gone in 2025. 2026 is the first season of big core piece Change: Framber, Tucker, Pressly, Montero, Jose Abreu, and Urquidy will all leave.
Crane thus far appears to have no problem funding the non-payer organization. I find the above claims to be ... apocryphal.
I did not mention trading him this season. At the break in 24 or in the post season of that year. Tucker is an elite player and I would expect a commensurate return for him. At least a top 10 pitching prospect and more would not be unreasonable to expect. Like it or not there are not many places to go with a 2nd baseman who can no longer field his position. I love him just like I loved Biggio finding a way to keep him around as long as possible is what I would like. There are already people saying Dubon might be a better 2nd base and I do not want to watch that. I am tired of listening to all the hate for him and do not see any reason for him to endure that till he is 38. If he wants to continue I would think short renewable contracts would make a lot better sense. Bregman spends longer every year as an unproductive placeholder for himself. When he shows up he is great but at some point it is not enough to make up for the time we spend waiting. I think that time is after 2024 but I would not be willing to offer a long contract to find out how long after it will be. Looking to the future is what made this team a dynasty and it can only continue by looking to the future. I am not ready to give it up.
What do you think Altuve gets? 6 years 140M? Something like that? No sense trading Tucker after 2024 (just keep him) but if you moved him at the deadline so someone would pay 2 season prices instead of 1 I would think you could get a top 20 prospect, a top 50 prospect and 2 other 55 grade types. Send him to some AL East Team. Maybe Baltimore. They have a ton of really good prospects, some of them are blocked and they are cheap so they'd probably love to have a top 10 MVP type for 2 playoff runs that doesn't cost a ton of actual money (probably about 20 or 24M for August and Septemeber of 24 and 25. Especially if they thought they had a window to win right there. If you didn't get back a top 20, top 50 and two more guys you like you just keep him for the last 2 years.
You’re insane. Bregman put up an MVP caliber season last year and was worth over $50M. He still projects to finish this season with over 4 wins and $40M in value. However frustrating his slow starts might be he is still an extremely good player and shouldn’t begin age related decline for another 3-4 seasons at least. Altuve put up over $60M in value last season and over $110M over the last 2 seasons combined. He hit better in 2022 than any other season in his career. He isn’t even close to washed up. The notion that Dubon, who has been serviceable but by no means a star while he’s filled in, should play over a healthy Altuve is asinine.
My guess (assuming he comes back and is productive) would be $160/5yrs for Altuve with maybe some bonuses for plate appearances and awards. Based on his performance the last 2 seasons that would be a steal for the Astros. I just don’t think Altuve has any interest in playing anywhere else so I don’t think he will play hardball even if he should, because I don’t think Crane has any interest in seeing Altuve play for any other team. Altuve is not the same as Springer, Correa, or any of the other free agents they’ve let walk. He is Mr. Astro.
I can't get behind the idea that 1WAR is wirth $10M. I prefer $6-7M per WAR. I know that won't buy a top FA but it allows for the team to at least make even.
Well, $10M/war is the going rate. It may be even more for the very best players because of scarcity. If Aaron Judge was willing to sign a 1 year deal $60M would probably have been the offer. Hell, he got $360M that pays him for 9 years and the Yankees probably aren’t expecting him to produce much of anything in the last 3 of those, so they’re essentially paying him $60M/yr for the next 6 seasons; I don’t think he projects to avg 6 war/season over that time. I also don’t think he projects to average 4 war over the life of his contract.
