If the Cubs fall out of the race, thoughts on Stroman? He has an opt out and the way he's pitching, it's expected he does. But I think mutual interest between the two so maybe he signs a new contract. Would Stroman be the better pitcher but Giolito be the easier pitcher to acquire due to cost?
I have Stroman on my list but Cubs had 27.9% chance of playoffs ( avg of Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and I only posted those under 25%. The biggest issue is the opt out. The Cubs will expect a return for an expensive pitcher but one under contract for 2024, not a rental. And if he pitches well, especially in a playoff race and the post season, then he will opt out and The Astros only get him for part of a season. If he has a Mancini-esque crapping of the bed or major injury then he won't opt out and the Astros are on the hook for $21-23M. Thats a huge amount for this team and will hurt badly. Currently, Cots shows the Astros with just under $78M available for 2024. Neris has an $8.5M option that will almost certainly be picked up unless something changes drastically. That leaves just over $69M and $48M if he pitches under 160 IP this year ($46M if he does). So that $48M will need to cover any free agent signings, arbitration raises for Framber, Tucker, Urquidy, Dubon, Garcia, Chas, B.Abreu, B.Taylor, and Bielak along with any extensions they might want to offer. That is unless they are willing to go over the CBT. Altuve, Bregman, Stroman, and Neris will be FA (almost $73M off the books) after the season so it could be just a single season then reset. But that doesn't leave much to resign or replace Jose or Alex.
The trade would have to be structured with this assumption, methinks ... with 2-3 WAR going back to the Cubs. All things considered, not too bad of a hit to The Farm. If I am reading this correctly, Stroman's 2024 salary could get a $4 million bump to $25 million, based on IPs. In the MLB, can contracts get re-structured with a trade? Could the Astros add like a $10 million team buyout for 2024 to Stroman's contract?
I believe extensions can be negotiated along with trade talks. I don’t think they can technically be a part of the trade but the controlling team can offer the player an extension with the understanding that it’s really the new team making the offer and a trade would be made immediately after signing the extension.
There’s a huge group of teams on the fringes of projected contention. The Red Sox, Guardians, Angels, Mariners, Marlins, Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates, Padres, and Giants could all become sellers by the deadline. There’s a boatload of good players on those teams who could help Houston.
Its $2M for 160+ IP in 2022 and $2M for 160+ IP in 2023. He did not get there last year but is on pace this year.
Hopefully they have some GM’s who are looking to wave the white flag proactively… because only the Marlins and the Pirates fan bases would accept being sellers (and the latter is still riding some excitement from the early season success).
No chance Stroman signs an extension before playing on his new team IF he was traded. He's not going to lock himself into a contract until he gets a feel for the locker room culture, city, etc. That player option is just injury protection. As long as he is healthy and performing well he is 100% declining the option. At age 34 Chris Bassitt received a 3 year 63 million dollar deal. Stroman will be 33 next season and will command more AAV on a longer deal. I expect the Cubs to extend him not trade him. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/cubs-marcus-stroman-had-preliminary-extension-talks.html “I’ve been open with the front office here, been very vocal that I want to be here and I want an extension, that I don’t want to honestly make it to free agency,” Stroman told Lee. “The organization top down, how they handle the players, how they handle the families, how they operate, I love everything about it. So, I would love to be a Cub for, honestly, the rest of my career, and sign one more deal and be done.”
I think it depends on the return. A team like Boston, in a grueling division and fans who have won relatively recently will be ok if the return has a high chance of returning to competitiveness next year. But not if it is for prospects that will take 2-3 years to hit their prime. Also a team like Pittsburgh or Baltimore risks alienating the fans if any trade sets them back further or delays winning.
Framber- +6, Tucker +6, Urquidy +2, Dubon +1, Garcia (arb 1 for him right?) +3, Chas (arb 1, right?) +3, B Abreu (no saves- arb 2) +2, B. Taylor- cut, Bielak- cut. I think that's only 25M in arbitration raises. So, if your 48M number is right that still leaves us 23M for extensions and FA signings. If you had Stroman (and I'm not advocating this) you aren't signing any pitchers as you have a full compliment. Guys that might be extended (parenthesis would be my max offer)- Chas (6/50), Pena (8/80), Bregman (6/180), Altuve (5/100- starting in 2025 from his age 35-39 seasons), Abreu (5/40) (Bregman and Altuve wouldn't cost anything on an extension- might even see their AAV go down depending on length of contracts) You could actually afford all those extensions and stay under the tax. That would mean your catcher situation is Diaz/Lee and that would mean your LF is Gilbert or Meyers and not a FA. I'd be absolutely fine with all that. This offseason is easy and full of opportunity. Next offseason after 2024 is pretty nervy if you are making decisions on Altuve and Bregman as franchise cornerstones.
Wonder the cost of Robert's and Cease as a package deal or Robert's and Giolitto? Still think McCormick as a 4th OF is best suited for him
I think you misunderstood the arbitration salaries. 100% of arbitration salaries need to come out of the $48M not just the raises.
Gotcha- I thought you were using the baseline in there already when you said "cover arbitration raises". My bad. OK then: Framber- 15M, Tucker- 11M Urquidy- 6M, Dubon- 3M, Garcia- 3M, Chas- 3M, Abreau- 4M. Something like that? That's 45. So, you'd be left with 3M left over. Which- if that's the case and you added Stroman- again- you don't actually need that 3M to sign anyone because Gilbert is your LF and Diaz/Lee are your catchers, so... IT wouldn't be a great situation but they could make it work. Just like they could make a Kris Bryant deal work next year without materially harming the team.
There's a few guys on the Cardinals I'd be interested in, but watch out. They're quietly on a hot streak, and I get 2019 Nationals vibes from them. Besides, as a franchise, I don't think the Cardinals are even ones to be big sellers at the deadline (on the rare occasions they're out of the race), just minor trades IIRC.
We talk about present (what was most important this week, past (Billy D, Oswalt and Bagwell) and future (farm system and Drew Gilbert. spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1P7mwoQBPzxDtCIA0yIpfW?si=6_O3w9ngRKCwxqUBDhx3Rg Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/8...nd-future?ref=dm_sh_HrORv3vhOED05PASfSmmXz75e Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...n-astros-podcast/id1683955456?i=1000613618382 not only are we dominating Pakistan but we are now in Luxembourg!
