The Astro's Verlander decision is looking better and better. I was hoping that they would not commit a boatload of money to keep him. I had a feeling that he was becoming especially injury prone and in career decline.
I looked at all starting pitchers that could possibly be an upgrade over McCullers and/or Urquidy. POSSIBLE mind you. I wanted lots of options. I came up with 49 names. According to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, 18 teams have at least 30% chance of making playoffs so I eliminated their pitchers. Remaining teams: A= less than 6% chance: Oak, Col, KC, Was, Cin, ChW, Detroit. B= 14.7%-24.3% chance: Pit, LAA, Mia, Bos, Cle. Then I eliminated pitchers who signed extensions this year and are prearb because no realistic chance they get traded this soon or they would be crazy expensive. Results: Pitchers who would be Astros top 3: A) Cease B) Bieber, Ohtani Pitchers who would be Astros top 4-5: A) Giolito, L.Lynn B) Keller, Sale, E.Rodriguez. Pitchers who could start in season but not likely in playoffs: A) JP Sears, Grienke, Lorenzon B) Pivetta, Kluber That's it - 13 potential starters who would help this team.
Those fringey guys don’t move the needle. Rodriguez’s contract is too onerous. Sale isn’t a clubhouse fit. LA isn’t trading Ohtani to the Astros even if Houston was top bidder. That leaves Cease, Bieber, Giolito, Lynn, and Keller from your list. I don’t think Houston is going to trade for a SP but if I did Giolito would be the heavy odds favorite for their target.
I listened to a podcast from mlbtraderumors about the White Sox today. They pretty much said they really don't see them trading Cease but if they did it would take a stupid haul like the Chris Sale trade. If the price is even in that ballpark we have no chance.
I would agree. My point is that the Astros rotation is just good enough that there are few options to improve but after Framber and Javier the starters are pretty fringy. I still think adding a starter is the best way to improve the chances of this particular team winning the World Series. Cleveland and San Francisco are both in danger of falling out of playoff contention with a cold spell. That would make Bieber a good option and Cobb or DeSciafani possible. * Pete Putila is Giants GM and may like some of Astros prospects more than other teams do.
his career ERA basically matches his FIP (so neither lucky nor unlucky) and his ERA plus is 1%. That's league average. He's been 17% better than average so far this year but last year he was 18% worse. LMJ is much better than him, Urquidy has never had an era in any one year as high as Giolito's career average, and he's a 10% better than average pitcher compared to Giolito. I realize neither LMJ nor Urquidy are pitching right now but they are due back 6/15 and 7/15 respectively. If both are out for the year then cool- add Giolito I guess. But the idea of trading anything potentially valuable for him to come in and be league average when it's unlikely we need that to get to the playoffs, and once in the playoffs league average is unlikely to be helpful to us isn't something I'd be jumping up and down over. Bieber on the other hand really moves the needle in the playoffs. Definitely would give up some good stuff for him (but so would everyone I guess).
Sorry guys, you can't get your Astros news from a furniture store anymore. I guess John McClain, aka Pancakes, food budget was too much.
It would hurt that's for sure, but I think there could be a match there. The White Sox never want to rebuild, so are always looking for talent close to MLB ready. They have a strong affinity for Cuban players and scouts them heavily just like the Astros. They also only have 5 outfielders among their top 30 prospects, 1 in the top 10 and 2 in top 19. Both starting middle infielders are FA to be. They only have 2 catchers among their top 30 and their starter will he a FA. Both only 40 grade prospects at #27 and 28 respectively. They will also be losing 3 SP as FA so getting one back will be paramount for them, especially giving up their ace. I would suggest: Pedro Leon, Korey Lee, Jake Meyers and Luis Garcia for Cease Leon is a natural fit being Cuban and able to play 2B, or OF. Lee Is a better catching prospect than either of the 2 they have now. Meyers gives them an MLB ready CF. Robert moves to RF to improve the OF and help him stay healthy Garcia is a step down from Cease but still a very capable middle of the rotation arm. He has possibly some projection left and won't be needed this year, but has one additional year of control over Cease.
Giolito has only been league average or worse one of the last 5 seasons. He was comfortably above league average all but last year, and even that season he his projected stats were right at league average. It's not just about who we use in October, it's about keeping Javier and Brown from being overused. The Astros would like to be able to go to a 6 man or maybe skip starts later in the season to accomplish that. Relying on France, Bielak and everybody else staying healthy to accomplish that is a dangerous game. Thanks to the slow start and injuries our margin for error getting a bye will be quite a bit lower this season. Biebers velocity, xFIP, and whiff rate have been on the decline for a few years and you want to give up a premium for that?
Look- if LMJ and Urquidy aren't back by the deadline- and France and/or Whitley haven't established themselves as league average then sure- bring in a guy (or even two) to help you get through the regular season and keep some innings off Brown and Javier. But I'm pretty much figuring on at least one of those guys coming back and being a regular by the trade deadline so I really don't think it's necessary. Bieber is still a premium guy. You are getting him for 1 playoff run. I wouldn't give up a Randy Johnson package for him but I'd be fine with the Zach Greinke package. I doubt that would be enough to get it done.
That offer won't even get their attention. Cease is coming off a runner up Cy Young season and you would get him for 3 post season runs. Garcia is injured and has one more year of control than Cease. That does nothing for the White Sox because if they trade Cease they are in full rebuild mode and will want ELITE prospects with 6 years of control. I literally do not believe we have the prospects to make that trade. I don't think a trade including Gilbert, Melton, and Clifford even gets close to getting this deal done. In the podcast I was listening to the Orioles were the team they thought could put together a package because they have so many stud prospects that are being blocked. For reference... the Orioles have EIGHT top 100 prospects on the updated MLB list. Astros have one and that is Gilbert at 95.
That makes sense. I was thinking more about the White Sox retooling for a 2024 playoff run: 3 years of a #3 SP, and 5 years of a gold glove calibur CF with close to league average bat along with 2 45 grade prospects who fit into organizational needs and fit between 7-14 in their top 30. In exchange for 2 years of a #1 starter. But that offer would fit more if Cease had less control or was a #2-3 guy. It makes sense that if they trade Cease then they would not be interested in Garcia or Meyers because they don't expect to compete in 24 or likely 25. They would want : at least 1 50 and 3 prospects graded at 45 or better LOW END MINIMUM. That would be: Melton, Barber, or Clifford And at least 3 of: Lee, Leon, Dirden, Gordon, Arighetti, Ullola, Tamarez, or Wagner.
If I'm the White Sox GM and the Astros called about Cease... I want Hunter Brown, Drew Gilbert, and another one of the guys you mentioned above. Otherwise I will call the Orioles and get 2-3 top 100 prospects. We just don't have the top prospects to make this kind of deal happen. Losing the picks from the cheating scandal is really hurting our ability to make impact trades.
The Cardinals are probably a better example of a team that would just write off a bad year and reload for 2024, but they have no pitching we want and both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference think they have a good shot at the playoffs this year.
