People I respect are saying we get a steal with Amen at 4. I don’t know enough about OT Elite to know what the competition is like, but that can fall both ways. Better shooting in the NBA is going to open things up for him more so than in a lower level league, so the numbers don’t necessarily concern me. The athleticism and passing ability are elite. The defensive potential is elite. The shooting of course needs work. He’s not Vic, he’s not Scoot, but at 4 I think we have to take him. I don’t think he’s a “playmaking wing” I think he’s a PG and that’s what we need! It doesn’t come without risk but we didn’t get lucky enough to make a pick without any risk this year.
I think it's worth it. It's not like we have any good shooters on the roster anyway. I'll just be happy to have a pass-first point guard.
I think it's worth it. It's not like we have any good shooters on the roster anyway. I'll just be happy to have a pass-first point guard.
I'm worried because he sounds exactly like Russell Westbrook to me, but there are certainly 2-3 people here who may know more about him. - Has the tools for defense but doesn't seem to have the IQ or motor for it - Terrible outside shot seems a long way from reaching 36% in the NBA (I would bet 7+ years till he's there) - Fast, aggressive, athletic, strong but not a lot of mental game going on and a PG has to know when it's good to attack/pass - A lot of dramatic body language to indicate high effort but in truth his off ball movement on defense and offense is very very poor (like Faried, Westbrook, Harrell) - He is not getting to the rim with all those euro steps when NBA defenders drop way back on him - Not elite at post up or midrange to punish defenders who drop back If you're not a C and you can't shoot, it's practically over for you in the NBA. We've seen MVP and All Star calibre talent (Westbrook, Simmons) be used in multiple schemes, multiple teams, multiple roles, multiple shooting coaches, multiple head coaches and still be a negative for their team and it intensifies in 4th quarters and playoffs. What happened with Simmons and WB is their shooting remained static while the league kept improving at shooting, so their value went from max to now NT-MLE or less. This will 100,000% become MORE the case in the NBA in the future with each passing year. Anyone we draft will have problems, but for the love of god, give me someone who's shooting just needs 5% improvement. Give me someone who has a defensive motor but hasn't learned defensive principles. Give me someone who can protect the f*ck out of the rim in 3 years even if he's an idiot. Give me someone who can at least post up at an elite level if they can't shoot. An elite mid range game without a 3pt shot. This task of improving Amen's shooting feels like it's much longer term than I have patience for. We want to make the playoffs and we want to win and we are making it harder to do that by destroying the spacing on the floor for Jalen and Sengun. If we're bringing him off the bench and we have a great vet starting, then I can be fine with it. Look at the top 10 non Centers in the draft, which one is most likely to NOT develop a 3pt shot? There's always someone and to be honest if I was putting my real money on it I would bet it's Amen. I wouldn't put that money on anyone else over him. As far as starting Amen Thompson these next 2 seasons, I'm completely against it no matter who else is on the floor. It's a big risk and I don't think we need to take it. He's a Phase 1 prospect imo. If we had been developing him for two years already and his 3pt shot was trending up, I would be ecstatic. Not the right fit if you ask me. Happy to let him flourish somewhere else so we can get someone with a more modern game.
So Anthony Black? He was shooting 30% from three, about 5% away from being decent. He doesn't only has a defensive motor but plays defense at a better level as a guard than anyone from the past couple of drafts, both man to man and as a help defender. Plus he sees the whole court at an elite level and has a great passing skill and quick decision making. He will give you rebounds and he is more athletic than people give him credit for - and he can finish on drives, both at the rim and with a floater.
Great example. Black does not have the same ceiling/potential as Amen I will say that right off the bat. Black is a poor shooter, but he's your standard poor shooter. You don't worry that he's going to be Russell Westbrook. He's already at 45/30/70 efficiency in a better league than Amen. He also turns the ball over A LOT (3.9 assists to 3 TO's is atrocious) which negates his passing. On the bright side he gets to the line at an elite frequency which is a key stat for finding stars. He's not a ball hog. For half of the game (on defense) he can be elite. I can see a safe path for Black to stardom. Ben Sullivan works on his shooting and improves it a few % over a year or two. Udoka improves his decision making exactly as he did with Tatum/Brown. That's it, he's not a liability any longer. He has all the major tools and doesn't have any major flaws to be a Black could be a 6'7 two-way NBA player averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists with great defense on 45/33/80 shooting splits within a few years. That's a tremendous young asset. If he's that by the time he's 24, we're talking about a near-max contract. It is impossible to be a near-max-worthy player without a 3pt shot unless you're a big man. It has too large a domino effect. Your defender drops back, thus your drives lose efficiency, that dropped back defender harasses your best scorer taking away your top assist-target and if your defense is not elite you will find your net impact in the red. There are no schemes or coaches who have a solution to this. Some of the people who tried with Westbrook: Brooks, MDA, Ham. With Simmons: Rivers, Nash, Vaughn, Brown, MDA (as offensive coach). There is no path to a non-shooting PG remaining on the floor in the NBA because the penetration ability takes a hit too. In every 4th quarter and in every playoff game, the team will stay home on everyone else and put the game in his hands. If he were Lebron or Giannis-sized where he can bulldoze his way to the basket downhill against NBA players I could see it, but not at his size (6'7, 210lbs). If Westbrook was 6'10 he would be Giannis, but he's not 6'10 so he's Westbrook. I don't know man. I'm not willing to take a risk this large until someone shows me just ONE Finals-calibre team/system with a PG who shoots as poorly as Westbrook and isn't an elite defender. We don't need to be creating shackles for ourselves when we have a blank slate.
With the 1.4 pick you draft a player with floor as a league average starter for his position and a ceiling as an all star. Amen’s floor is lower than desired. To achieve his ceiling, Amen is many nontrivial development steps away. I also see some red flags. The twins last year played in a church league (to them) and did not need to take development steps to excel. They needed to be taking 100s of the three point shots and free throws every day. They should not need an advisor to tell them that. The twins will likely need to play their entire next season in the G League, learning the NBA game. It is like the twins are really good, unpolished HS players … just older.
You don't build strategy and plans and contenders based on an outlier theory. Kawhi is the exception and half the shooting exceptions in the league are because of 1 shooting coach (Chip) who is now in OKC. If you're drafting a guy and his career will suck if we don't achieve Chip Engelland's rate of success, you are practically committing strategic suicide. We're 99% not going to achieve that. We will need half a decade or more to get him there and he's unstartable in the 4th and in the playoffs then for 5 years. Why would we handicap ourselves when we have choices or player who may have slightly lower ceiling? Doesn't make sense to me.
Its fun to listen to guys say they dont want Amen Thompson because he "cant shoot", but would welcome Scoot Henderson with a loving embrace who also .... cant shoot.
They could both wind up as decent shooters, but the discussion is interesting. I'd prefer Ausar even though he isnt a natural distributor, but between Amen and Scoot I'd go with the 6'7 guy over the 6'2 guy when they share attributes.
Thats true. I'd really love a knock down outside shooter though. No way in hell that we can continue to be the worst shooting team in the association and expect to make a play-in push next season.
How bad exactly is Amens shot. Because if it's like Shaq/Simmons level broken we probably shouldn't draft him. If he's closer to like Rookie Giddey, Rookie Kawhi, then there might be hope. I am tired of hearing players are gym rats, and then have broken ass jumpshots
I see the Thompson twins as both extremely raw. On a ten step ladder between HS and the NBA starter, both on are step 4 or so. If both are given the same training going forward, they both could end up as mostly the same NBA player. Saying one is better than the other at this point don't mean much.
Ime: we need more shooting. … Let’s draft a guy who can’t shoot! Houston is where shooter’s shots come to die. Like they forget how to shoot.
Ausar was named the OTE league MVP and the Finals MVP for that league. In the grand scheme of things it may not mean much, but to me it would appear that Ausar is a gamer who elevates his play when the stakes get higher and has more heart on the court. Hard to teach that. Amen is the above the rim "what did he just do" type of athlete who sees the court better, but Ausar is right there in terms of raw assists per game. It will come down to working them out and letting the team professionals zero in on what would fit better.
This is legitimately one of the bigger dropoffs I have ever seen from 3-4. That was worst case scenario last night. I don't know how a team looks at Amen Thompson and drafts him over Brandon Miller who at least shows what look like an Elite Quality in stand still shooting. Houston would be doing an absolute dis-service to itself by staying at 4 and drafting. Amen Thompson can't shoot. That is a non starter. Cam Whitmore... ehhh. Grady Dick or Keyonte George for me. At least George has some projection, and Dick has an actual Elite skill. Can't see the Rockets taking either of those guys at 4 either. Brutal.
