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Suggested FA Target: Austin Reaves

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Mathloom, Mar 21, 2023.

  1. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    They can match but it will screw them over a lot in the upcoming seasons. This is especially true if we offer early into the offseason.
     
  2. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I'm pretty sure they would have to use the NT-MLE because early bird isn't enough work on that 4/100 deal.
    Understanding the Value of Bird Rights - Sports Business Classroom
    As for the numbers, they really depend upon who the Lakers want to keep.

    They are at $96,331,248 with Lebron, AD, Vanderbilt, Harrison & Christie.

    Then they have Beasley & Mo Bamba on team options. Exercising those options brings them up to $123,155,354

    Now add the 25/15m for Hachimura & Russell (I think those are very conservative numbers) and you are at $163,155,354 with 9 players under contract - having not matched Reaves yet. In fact, you'd be over the hard cap in matching a full MLE contract.

    That also doesn't account for 4 minimum cap holds (6 if they renounce Beasley & Bamba) to cover empty roster spots @ $1,989,698 each
    Examining the NBA's $134M Salary Cap Projection for 2023-24 - Sports Business Classroom

    Sure, they can keep him, but they are going to have to likely give up both Beasley & Bamba and be in the tax(repeaters), hard capped and be paying him near $40m per on the back end.
     
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  3. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    Daaamn. I'm sure they'd give up Beasley cause he played less than Reaves, Russell and Schroeder. They can totally go with a minimum guy to replace Beasley so they can get a bit of relief there.

    With Mo Bamba he's not worth that team option but they coughed up Beverley, 2nd round pick and cash for him. I think they either pick up the option or ask him to opt out for a lower salary but more guaranteed seasons. Might not work, some team might believe they can rehab Bamba. I'm sure someone will be able to offer him $8m/season for example and then the Lakers will again be stuck with no decent backup for Davis. Again though, they could sign Noel.

    Either way that's very tight and if they don't win a title it means they need to add a piece to what they had so coming back with the exact same thing doesn't seem like it would be acceptable. I feel like they could get lucky with CP3 this summer though, I feel like he will get traded, bought out and sign with Lakers for peanuts. That would be worth losing D-Lo, which would save them a ton of money.
     
  4. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    On CP3 - he has said in the past that he wouldn't be taking any discounts to go to specific teams because of his role in the NBA-PA.
    He's no longer president of the NBA-PA but I cannot see him going back on that statement. It's about integrity to him.
    Bamba - I think you are correct, there will be a team who gives him $8-10m on the open market, they aren't likely to get a discount on him and would need to find a quality replacement with AD's history of missing so many games.

    Russell made $31,377,750 this season. I don't know what his value is on the open market. It's quite obvious the Lakers cannot offer him that and be hard capped. It's just too restrictive ..... estimates for D-Lo are in the 4/100 range and that along with the hard cap is difficult - I think that might be being generous to the Lakers.
    He's not getting the max but that doesn't mean he'll accept less.

    Hachimura - they gave up 3 #2's for him ... not a huge investment and one they could walk away from if it gets too expensive. Still, he's played 21 minutes a game in the playoffs and averaged 11/4 while averaging an insane .533 from distance and an EFg of .663. He's been a big part of their success .... $15m seems a reasonable figure for him.

    Lonnie Walker - A Non Bird FA who made $6,479,000 this season. They can offer him 120% of that $7,774,800. I dunno what the sentiment is on Walker, if they would pay him that or go with a cheaper option.


    All this and we haven't even gotten to Reaves ..... the Lakers aren't in an enviable position.
     
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  5. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    I can easily see teams handing out RFA offers just to screw with the Lakers
     
  6. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    Reaves Last 4 games
    Avg 20/4/6
    49% FG
    57.7% From 3 on 26 attempts
    100%. From the line
    24:5 Assist to TO

    Just 24 yrs old and has only gotten better in the biggest moment. This should be the target to pair with Green in the back court.
     
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  7. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    I’d rather go after Rui. Reeves is nice but he benefits from playing with AD and Lebron. There’s nobody here to draw that attention
     
  8. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    I think you're not watching the games because it's exactly the opposite. The one and only reason Rui has gone from below average to mediocre is because he's in more of a catch and shoot role. The one and only reason Reaves is exploding is because they started putting the ball in his hands to score or generate kickouts.
     
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  9. TEXNIFICENT

    TEXNIFICENT Member

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    Austin will struggle defensively without an elite rim protector. He can shoot and score but he’s a two. Plus he’s not a great defender
     
    #249 TEXNIFICENT, May 17, 2023
    Last edited: May 17, 2023
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  10. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    You can't ask for more proof than this that he's a legit NBA starter. It would have been excellent to replicate his regular season in 1 round of the playoffs. Instead he kicked it into higher gear and they've knocked out the reigning champs and also the 2nd seed while he guards their best players. Was also excellent in Game 1 of the WCF.

    If this is not enough to convince someone that his regular season is repeatable anywhere, then they are setting suspicious standards. It's not 1 or 2 games he's popping off. He's consistently doing it against a variety of defenders who know who he is by now. This is the playoffs, no one is trying to let Austin Reaves embarrass them and everyone is trying to embarrass him on the other end.
     
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  11. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    Sorry but I cannot accept the idea that a person will run quarters worth of offense, in the 4th quarter and in the playoffs, while Lebron James, Dennis Schroeder and D'Angelo Russell are on the floor and I'm supposed to believe he's NOT a hybrid PG perfectly capable of playing PG. That's gone, it's in the past now. He can guard PG's and he can generate a 3:1 asst/to ratio. He can hit the roller, lob threats, corner 3pt shooter and attack the basket. The only reason he has not done this more is because there is an all time great playmaker and 2 vet PG's on his team. He can play SG just as well, so they put him at the 2 a lot in the regular season. Once the playoffs came though, it was clear he was their 2nd best creator behind Lebron.

    Everyone struggles defensively without a rim protector and everyone is better with them. 6 of the 7 worst defensive teams in the NBA have no/poor rim protection and all the perimeter players' advanced defensive stats on those teams are league-worst garbage. Rim protection is not optional, it's a mandatory function in the NBA. If we don't have it, all the defenders will struggle as they did last season. If we don't have it, that's on the GM. There are no coaches or players who can prevent that.

    He can shoot, score, pass and defend.
     
    #251 Mathloom, May 17, 2023
    Last edited: May 17, 2023
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  12. mac_got_this

    mac_got_this Member

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    Reeves? When everybody is healthy, he’s is rarel y the first or second person to touch the ball in the offense. He doesn’t bring the ball up and he doesn’t run the offense. He’s usually the beneficiary of a pick and roll or the extra pass. He gets a lot of open shots because of Lebron and DLo are great facilitators and have good court vision

    lakers always in tv, who does see them play? And I live in DC and have been watching Rui play since his first summer in the nba. I wanted Hosuton to trade for him this deadline but for some reason the Lakers. Went after him. He’s underrated. He was doing this since when Russ was there. He can’t guard all 5 positions and doesn’t need the ball in his hand to score and can get out and run.
     
  13. eman

    eman Member

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    If experience is any indicator, there is no way we will ever make a serious investment in someone who can actually shoot the damn ball.
     
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  14. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    So if Rui doesn't need the ball in his hands so he has no choice but to be the recipient of Lebron, Russell, Reaves, Schroeders playmaking. A player who scores off catch and shoot is MOST dependent on AD and Lebron. Those who can handle, get to the basket, run PnR are the LEAST dependent on AD/Lebron. I have no idea how you're coming to the conclusion that Rui will translate and Reaves will not.

    On Reaves, as mentioned he's playing with an ATG playmaker (Lebron) and two more senior PG's (WB/Russell + Schroeder) so he is simply creating less because Ham is sharing the load. Still come 4th quarter they often put the ball in his hands to CREATE by attacking the basket, getting in PnR, hitting the corner on kick outs even when Lebron is on the floor. That's running the offense. That's the whole thing he's doing right now that's fueling this run. I don't think you're watching the games closely to be honest. Your description of him as though he's just the recipient of kick outs is far from reality. He has been excellent on the catch for almost 2 years now and in these playoffs he's been excellent with the ball in his hands. His PPP is embarrassing Schroeder and Russell. His assisted rate is far lower than Rui's and his efficiency higher. He's also guarding FAR better players with more success than Rui. Reaves main assignments have been Steph Curry and Ja Morant. Rui is guarding bench players. It's not even remotely comparable and defense is half of all possessions in an NBA game.

    Rui cannot guard all 5 positions obviously. He's not even a specifically good defender at his own position. People who they say guard multiple positions have to be elite at guarding one of those positions.

    I really like Rui the player but much of your analysis here is incorrect. Defense and creating with the ball in your hands translates far more than what Rui does.
     
  15. BaselineFade

    BaselineFade Member
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    Reaves is showing me something this playoff run. He has ice water in his veins. Clutch shot maker. I was hesitant about him when you made this thread, because I didn't trust his defense, and I wanted more of a sample size. But watching him during this playoff run has sold me. With this year's class of free agents he makes sense. He's not getting exposed in one on one's. He's actually moving his feet and competing effectively on defense. He's making huge shots consistently. Not a natural facilitator but serviceable enough.

    I would overpay but within reason. 25m a year is reasonable and he upgrades our roster.
     
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  16. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist
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    $25m is getting a bit high for my taste but we're definitely in the same ballpark.

    His playoff performances under high pressure and against ELITE competition (Warriors, Grizzlies) has changed my mind a lot too. He exceeded my expectations and then some.

    If doing it in the playoffs against elite competition is not stress-tested enough, then basically there is no way to prove it except with years of repetition. If there are years of repeating that behavior he would not ever become available so that's a silly standard to set. We're trying to snatch a really good player. There's always some risk involved, but there's rarely this kind of playoff resume to support it. This is an opportunity.
     
    #256 Mathloom, May 17, 2023
    Last edited: May 17, 2023
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  17. Believe It!

    Believe It! Member

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    Completely agree he benefits from both, but turned into a positive, with his experience and having been good in that time, he would be an excellent voice on the court and in the locker room. Share what is shared with you. Rox locker room needs this type of dude. Actually a few like this. Cam Johnson played with some great dudes. He's one. Harrison Barnes the same. Lopez... and so on.
     
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  18. Rockets FTW

    Rockets FTW Member

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    #4 pick, #20 pick, Cam Johnson, Grant Williams, Austin Reaves, trade a boat load of picks/players for a star.

    Teams making playoffs next year (play-in at worst) :cool:
     
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  19. thegary

    thegary Member

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    No, just no. His value right now is the highest it will ever be. He is a good complimentary player but does nothing to help our very bad team.
     
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  20. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    NBA insider Marc Stein recently touched on Reaves’ pending free agency, revealing that while the market for the Arkansas native isn’t clear yet, there will be at least one team that will offer more than what the Lakers want to spend.

    “Austin Reaves market…not clear yet. But there will definitely be a team or two that offers more than the Lakers want to spend,” Stein wrote. “There will be at least one.”

    The most the Lakers can offer Reaves is a four-year deal worth a little over $50 million. That’s obviously a nice chunk of change, but the 24-year-old could command more on the open market from teams with more cap space than the Lakers.

     
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