Next round of roster moves I’d like to see: Narbe Cruz and Zach Cole to Asheville Zach Dezenzo and Tim Borden II to Corpus Hector Nieves and Juan Santander to Fayetteville Scott Schreiber to Sugar Land
Ryan Gusto closed out Asheville's 4-3 win in Rome, Georgia today with 4 solid innings: 3 H (solo HR allowed), ER, 5 K His road stats so far are actually much worse than his stats in Asheville.
We'll see if his numbers get redistributed to a reliever but here is Spencer Arrighetti's final line for today: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 9 K, 83 pitches (59 strikes) EDIT: added video
A brilliant outing for someone who started the season slow, and much needed for Corpus since the pitching depth is not that strong. I hope he keeps it up and gets called up to Sugar Land sometime this summer.
Cole McDonald finished off a 1-0 Corpus win with a two-inning save, allowing one hit and striking out five. McDonald now has 21 strikeouts in 12 innings this season; maybe he's legitimately figured something out? He struck out 100 in 60.1 innings with Asheville last year but was terrible otherwise.
Notes from the last week: Jacob Melton had a great week. He's probably a month away from being ready for AA. Rough start for Ryan Clifford in High A but I'm not worried at all. Grae Kessinger is looking really good. It wouldn't surprise me if he were one of Houston's more requested prospects at the deadline. If Houston wants to demote Hensley or if there were an injury to Dubon, I would want Kessinger called up. Colin Barber had a good week. Loperfido, Gilbert, and Wagner also still looking good. Shay Whitcomb had a bit of a down week. His strikeout/walk rates are right on the fringes of warning signs. Kenedy Corona has also cooled off and his AA k rate is up to 32%; that won't play. Miguel Palma has been trash over the last 2 weeks. He raised his stock quite a bit with a good April but is now looking like that wasn't necessarily a breakout. I am very very disappointed in Pedro Leon so far this season. Through 142 pa he carries a 30% k rate and single digit walk rate. And he's not hitting for enough power to justify it. There's still time but the next month is going to weigh heavy for me; he needs to show some improvement by either striking out a lot less or hitting for more power, otherwise he will start to really look like a AAAA guy which is a huge discount on his value from where it once was. There's probably not room for him yet, but I am ready to see Zach Dezenzo in AA. He is destroying High A pitching and his k rate is down to 24%. Another 2-3 weeks of this kind of performance and he will firmly be in "nothing more to prove at this level" territory. Quincy Hamilton might be the type of prospect who never shows up on prospect lists and never really makes a major impact in the majors but somehow carves out a 7 year career. He doesn't have a standout tool but he also doesn't have any major pockmarks on his profile. I think he should be moved up to AAA as soon as there is room for him. Tyler Whitaker, Justin Dirden, and Joe Perez are all pretty firmly in disappointment territory until their k rates come down a lot. At least Dirden is hitting for power now. It is worth noting the Joe Perez is the same age as Zach Dezenzo. Tommy Sacco and Tim Borden are worth tracking. Sacco is just below breakout level but definitely a pleasant surprise. Borden has hit for elite power but the 34% k rate will keep him from moving up. But both guys are middle infielders with pop and those guys always have a chance. I don't know what you call the opposite of a breakout season but so far Sandro Gaston and Logan Cerny are doing that. Great to see Spencer Arrighetti turn it around. He's an important piece given how disappointing most of the AAA arms have been. Cesar Gomez has been very effective since moving up to AAA. Rhett Kouba continues to look like a legit SP prospect. A couple more good appearances and I will want to see Ryan Gusto in AA. Diosmerky Taveras has looked good in very limited action since he came back from the dev list. He's a fireballer who is worth tracking. Major disappointments so far on the pitching side: Alex Santos, Jayden Murray, Misael Tamarez, Shawn Dubin.
Maybe I put too much stock in the Asheville Effect just like I did with the Lancaster Effect, but I think I'm a little more optimistic about Borden than I am with Sacco. Borden has hit more home runs in Asheville but he's hitting better overall on the road. The lower-level Dominican arms (Santa, Ullola, Calderon) have disappointed but they are all young enough to where repeating Asheville/Fayetteville isn't a death sentence. However, their chances of sticking as starters has taken a hit so far. Alimber Santa's struggles are somewhat understandable considering he effectively missed all of last season. For Miguel Ullola, Carlos Calderon, and Edinson Batista, Lancaster East really is their first true taste of adversity. Logan Cerny's stock is in the drain. Joe Perez should be back in the majors but I highly doubt that will happen with the Astros. Andrew Taylor has had a couple of rough outings lately for Fayetteville but I'm confident he'll at least get to Asheville for the second half.
Regarding moves that should be made as soon as there is room, I think it is time to be more pro active. Instead of waiting for room perhaps making room would be in order. This is going to have to happen anyway so why not sooner than later?
There's only been about 5-6wk of minor league action in total. A lot of stats haven't even become meaningful yet (i.e. reached a threshold for statistical significance). In the smaller leagues, there's a lot of benefit to seeing how players react when they face the league for a 2nd or 3rd time. If they started out the gate hot, will they continue their hot streak or fail to adjust when the scouting report is out on them. Will the slow starters adjust and get stronger as the season goes on? Some guys like Gilbert are clearly heads and shoulders above their competition and he was rightly promoted asap.... but that's not going to be the overwhelming majority of prospects.
Roster moves: Wrobleski and Mancini to High A Salgado and Coats released Mancini moving up the ladder; a good showing here may get him a late audition in Corpus which would put him firmly on the radar. Wrobleski has bounced around but has produced nicely; I’d like to see him stay put and get steady play. Salgado was a 2021 14th rd pick out of Oregon St. I didn’t know much about him but he was never somebody I noticed. Coats looked like a potential sleeper at 6’6” 240 as a UDFA out of Houston Baptist. He posted good k rates but too many walks.
Ross Adolph was transferred to the 60-day IL, which is probably the end for him. Adolph probably had a 4th/5th OF upside with the potential for a little more, but he only managed to complete one full minor league season during his time in the Astros system. He was the last player standing from the J.D. Davis trade with the Mets that occurred in the 2019 offseason.
He was an interesting prospect. He was always productive despite high k rates and not hitting many HR, surviving on a high walk rate and high babip. I guess he hit a lot of hard GB. He also had defensive value. I could have seen him as a Jack Shuck type but oh well, bummer for him.
Looks like Jairo Solis is off the IL and starting for Sugar Land tonight. Would be great if he could stay healthy and excel.
