Here’s the last year vs this years breakdown for the pitchers: Valdez 4.4 : 4.7 Verlander/Brown 6.1 : 3.1 Urquidy 1.1 : 0.9 Garcia/Bielak 2.1 : 0.8 Javier 3.4 : 3.1 Montero 1.5 : 0.7 Maton -0.1 : 0.5 Neris 1.6 : 0.6 Abreu 1.4 : 1.1 Odorizzi/France 1.2 : 0.7 Stanek 0.9 : 0.1 Pressly 1.4 : 1.3 McCullers 0.8 : 1.1 Not much to take away from this. I’m surprised they project to fall 7+ wins short of last year. Almost half of that is replacing a cy young guy with a (really good) rookie, but also I just think reliever war projections are wonky, although I do think Stanek, Montero, and Neris have not been as good as they were last season without any other RP stepping up; the bar was really high for all the returning guys. Obviously if France stays as effective as he’s been then he will blow his projection away. For now I would like to see an elite RP added to replace the Martinez/etc and let them use Montero and Stanek in lower leverage. Aroldis Chapman would be my target but there’s tons of others available.
This 100%. There's been a ton of blame-shifting this season. Eg. It's Dusty's fault. It's Bagwell's fault. The two primary culprits in the Astros record this season are under-performance and injury. Pretty much every national media narrative I've seen is that the Astros can and will bounce back. That remains to be seen, but no one in the broader media is blaming Dusty or the FO for the team's performance.
I don't know what all went into the Abreu signing, but if Bagwell was the primary driver (not the nerds) and Abreu flames out that is a huge f**k up. It's hard to overstate how reprehensible he has been this season. We're likely in first place if we even got league average production from him. A lot of season for this to possibly still work out, but through 38 games no single hitter has cost his team more on the field than he has given where he hits and how much he earns. While I think Dusty is hindering Diaz's development by refusing to give him at least semi-regular action, it hasn't cost us anything thus far. Otherwise there's nothing Dusty has done that is worth complaining about. The hitters we have simply aren't very good or are slumping, not much he can do about that.
The base problem is that Abreu is massively under-performing. To a level that no one could have predicted. Does Bagwell take some ownership of Abreu's under-performance given his short-lived pseudo-GM tenure? Yes. However IMHO, it's revisionist history to say that people were anything but thrilled when the Astros signed Abreu (beyond the pricetag). We expected at minimum an above average/solid starter if not hoped for all-start appearance or two. He was a premier free agent, something Houston hasn't always had success in signing. And the other options were Rizzo, Josh Bell and a hodgepodge of lesser options like Mancini. I preferred Rizzo but he was never going to sign anywhere other than with the Yanks. Bell and every other option has been 'meh' or worse. I was fairly happy we came out of the off-season with a new stud 1B, resigned setup man, and didn't pay verlander $40m+. It sucks the Stros overpaid a bit on both Abreu and Montero. It sucks even more that Abreu is playing awfully and Montero hasn't been good. But I don't think Bagwell could have magically foreseen most of that.
I remember all the jackholes complaining that Crane wasn’t spending more money upfront at the beginning of the season. This is why you slow play things a bit. You never know what will be needed to contend as the season goes on. The Astros were good enough to ride things out a bit to see what was needed in season. One of these days maybe people will trust the org that has brought us two chips. Altuve coming back will extend the lineup and give us more answers. As of now it’s looking like we might need a bat and an arm or two. Guess we will see though…
Except the nerds loved this signing too. The "Astros sign Jose Abreu" thread is filled with statistical data about how great Abreu was last year and how his year was a fluke, etc. Just a few examples:
The pitch clock is screwing with some hitters more than others. It requires quicker thinking. Most have no problem with that at all. For those who have lost some reaction time or perhaps were on the edge to start with it can seem insurmountable. It can increase the pressure they feel. Some will adapt and some never will.
Given how hard he hit the ball during spring training, I definitely don't think it's age unless he's playing injured. I think he's having a hard time getting his old swing back after making the change last year. I think he will figure it out by the halfway point .
If the nerds in the Astros FO are Michael Schwab and Ben Dubose tier then this org is truly and completely ****ed.
They are not. Yet GM Crane, with input from both sides, still made that signing (and the others) If you think that this organization is "truly and completely ****ed" at this point and after one offseason...well, nothing anyone can say can help you change your mind.
If Gilbert is still tearing it up post trade deadline and Brantley isn’t back, they for sure are calling him up right? I mean, imagine having Julks, Meyers playing everyday when you got a potential upgrade waiting in the wings.
Here's the problem... we're gonna be sellers and not buyers at the deadline-- ...all because humans play baseball (NOT computers)... Keep your analysis / commentary / choices on what to say IN. THE. BOOTH. Give our city a clue: Mr. Brown, in the office, with sum swingin' nuts & a pen... There are 3-4 A̶S̶S̶E̶S̶... assets that need to be unloaded yesterday.
Using Dubon as a leadoff hitter makes zero sense Yes, he has been MUCH better than last year, but his .315 OBP is awful for a leadoff man, and he has zero patience. He goes up there hacking at every pitch. If he was batting 7th that’s ok, but he is literally the anti-leadoff guy
TBH & relatively speaking... he's been just as good as most of these pros... (isn't Dubon hitting better than Bregman?) ...your correct statement would be: "using Jose Abreu as an everyday guy who doesn't want to be an Astro - has nothing / wants nothing to do with HTX & needs to be sent to AAA on assignment to get right" and having Dusty Baker still "manage" this team makes zero sense.
Who is this magical "leadoff man" who is being underutilized? Tucker then Yordan, with Tucker behind him, and Yordan behind Tucker, and Yordan....?
