The injured Stros that played in the WBC is what's killing this team. It's also the reason the BP isn't nearly as good as it was last year.
I never listen to the post game show, but I did tonight on the way to dinner. I feel much dumber for the experience. I couldn't make out what one caller was trying to say about the BP.
Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a team. They are all professionals and among the top 1% of baseball players in the world. I just rewatched and tracked every Pressly pitch. 1) when looking at the 9 box grid of the strike zone, every pitch was either a ball, or in the 1st base side bottom or middle box. 2) He only threw 2 pitches that weren't to the 1B side of the plate and they were both low. Ohtani happened to hit a low curve ball out. It was a good pitch - Ohtani's body was lunged out in front of the plate but kept his hands back - bad result. That happens. 3) Trout and Rendon's hits were both on sliders in the low outside corner that they pulled for ground balls that were perfectly placed. Can't defense that. 4) Renfroe's line drive single was on a slider right on the outside black of the strike zone but probably higher than ideal. A good pitch and again a perfectly located line drive. The closest thing to a mistake that Pressly made. The last 5 pitches he threw were all sliders on the extreme 1B side of the plate resulting on a K, weak pop up, and easy ground out. He really didn't throw any bad pitches. A couple were non competitive "show" pitches outside of the zone and a couple that got too much of the plate but still nowhere near the middle or danger zone. The expected batting average for Pressly's inning: Trout .160 Ohtani .730 Rendon .100 Renfroe .660 Drury .000 Thaiss .210 Urshella .050 Pressly pitched well and got a bit unlucky.
While this is true, the Astros still have one of the most (if not the most) BPs populated with 1-inning relievers. The Astros having a large quantity of great 1-inning relievers means they will typically perform well for 3-4 innings, but just don't have the innings in their arms to handle a volume of innings as well as most if not all other good teams. It is almost as if the FO built this bullpen with Dusty in mind.
With the advent of the 3 batter minimum rule causing the extinction of the lefty specialist, there are really 3 types of MLB relief pitchers in today's game. High leverage relievers Middle inning/non-leverage relievers Multi- inning fill ins. High leverage relievers are better than middle inning guys and both are much better than the fill in guys. A standard 8 man bullpen (5 man rotation) will have 3-4 leverage guys, 3-4 middle guys, and 1-2 mop up guys. The question is do you keep the best 8, or keep the 8 that fit roles? Maton and Stanek would both be leverage relievers for most teams but have to fill the middle inning/ non-leverage role here. Martinez is in the fill in role, but would likely be a middle inning guy for most bullpen. Blanco and Bielak are both very much fill in, multi inning mop up guys but due to injury Bielak is in the rotation and Blanco is in AAA being stretched out in case he is needed for longer outings/starts. I'm not sure about Gage, but he has only thrown 11 innings in 10 games between AAA and Houston so certainly not being used like a multi inning guy. For now this is workable. For the playoff push and post season, this team needs 4 very good dependable starters, 2 shutdown relievers, 3+ good dependable relievers, and a staff filled out by pitchers who won't cause us to drink. Currently I would say this team has 2 very good dependable starters and 2 that can potentially become that in time ( Brown, McCullers) Pressly and Abreu fill the shutdown relievers spots. Neris and Maton are currently in the 3rd group and Montero has been there before. Stanek has the stuff if he could just improve his command just a tick and reduce the walks. The rotation is the worrisome spot. I think it's fine to bet on either Brown OR McCullers securing one of those spots. I think it's foolish to need both to do it or expect France to get there a season he started in AAA. Urquidy simply doesn't have the stuff ( great 5th starter, borderline 4th starter but not for a championship level team). There are enough quality arms in the bullpen that I think the team can win with what is here, as long as they aren't burned out from over use. I would like to see the team trade for a starting pitcher to take the pressure off and compete with Brown and McCullers for the 3rd and 4th rotation spot. A guy like Giolitto makes sense. I would be ok with getting an innings eater #5 guy but then Brown and McCullers must both be in top form, rested, and healthy going into the playoffs. That's a risky bet.
Agree with most of this, but if i'm looking for a playoff starter i'm setting my sights on someone at a higher level than Giolitto. Unless you just think our pitching coaches can unlock some greatness in him, i'm not sure how much more I like him than a fully healthy Urquidy to be honest. I know Giolito has the "dominant stuff" but Urquidy has a lower career era and a history of performing well in the playoffs. Now if you are just looking for someone on Urquidy's level to replace him because he might not get back to health, then I could get on board with Giolitto in that instance
My thought would be that there are likely 2-5 guys that a team really wants to use in the postseason from the pen. The last 2-3 spots should be used on guys that can help a team win the regular to make the postseason and to protect those 2-5 guys so they are fine in the regular season and the postseason. None of a team's high leverage guys should be used in a blow out.
That sounds nice but I think a Giolito or Jordan Montgomery are about the best we can hope for. You look at the recent prices to obtain the kind of starter you are talking about under control beyond this season and that probably prices the Astros out of the market because we just don't have the excess top ranked prospects to get it done. So to me the Astros are going to have to shop in the rental market which just isn't that great, and the players you would really like aren't likely to be on losing teams.
Obviously I would rather have Zac Gallen or Spencer Strider but considering cost and availability I like Giolito a lot. Just a cursory look at the numbers show that he and Urquidy are very close in results but a deeper dive shows me more. First, Urquidy's numbers have gotten worse the last few years : BA against, OB%, SLG, HR%, K%, BB% have all gotten worse each of the last 3 years. Giolito had a bad 2022, hurt significantly by an unlucky .340 BABIP. Looking at the numbers I mentioned above, he has outperformed MLB averages and been better in 2020, 2021, and 2023 than he was earlier in his career. He has been good in 2023. Giolito's quality of contact numbers are better than Urquidy's but his BABIP is higher. That tells me that with a better defense behind him, he will be even better than he has been in Chicago. I see him a reasonably cheap starter ( because he's a rental) who is already a solid #3 or #4 starter who has started 29+ games and 160+ innings 4 full seasons in a row ( plus on pace for 32 and 195 in 2020) and better than MLB average numbers but still has upside on the Astros.
Giolito isn't even that bad. He's having a nice bounce-back year, can get you quality innings, and help hold the fort. With the uncertainty at the back of the rotation, he'd be very welcomed. I don't expect him to cost much. Valdez/Giolito/Javier/Brown/McCullers is a great 1-5. France is a wild card, and we'll see if Urquidy can come back (you never know the Astros when it comes to injuries). If we're going to make one big acquisition, I'd prefer a bat.
I agree. I was just pointing out that expecting the Astros to obtain a pitcher better than Giolito is probably unrealistic.
Assuming Altuve and Brantley are back before July 1st, what position and roster spot would you suggest a bat take? Altuve, Bregman, Pena, Alvarez, and Tucker are set in everyday lineups. Maldonado, Abreu, Meyers, and Brantley have cemented roster spots and at least 1/2 time starts as long as they prove healthy. McCormick, Dubon, and Diaz have also earned roster spots. That leaves 1 spot and possible up to 50% starts at C, 1B, LF, CF, and /or DH. But with Alvarez, Brantley, Meyers, McCormick, and Tucker all among the 13 position players, another OF/DH would make the team very OF heavy and infield weak. A C would r****d Diaz's development, possibly even sending him back to AAA. I think as long as Brantley is healthy, the only way a bat is brought in is if Meyers or McCormick is traded away.
We have no idea if or when Brantley will be back at this point. If Abreu continues to be the worst hitter in baseball as we get close to the trade deadline I could see the Astros trading for a rental 1st baseman/DH like Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper, CJ Cron, or Yuli.
There is no way you can count on Brantley, or McCullers. Those are bonuses if they recover. Urquidy is questionable, but he has never had a serious injury like Brantley, or McCullers.
Ideally, I'd like a trade for a #2 starter, and a power bat at 1B. I really don't see a JV or Greinke-type ace being available at the deadline, and even if there was one, he would cost a real haul, and it would be a bidding war we probably couldn't win. I have no idea what is going on with Abreu, but we're far enough into the season where I don't think it's just a small sample size. Maybe he does turn it around, but if he doesn't by the deadline, 1B should absolutely be upgraded. I am not sure if we can count on Brantley coming back at this point. Too many question marks about his injury and the severity. I would love to see him healthy again and hitting well, but no guarantee.
