Bregman has been trash no doubt, but the numbers behind his struggles suggest he's been a little unlucky and should be productive when everything levels out by years end. There's not really a huge red flag, he had a similarly abysmal stretch last season. There's absolutely zero with Abreu to feel optimistic about right now. He looks 100% like a hitter whose bat speed has fallen off and is having to compensate by cheating and the underlying numbers are...not good.
At the beginning of the year...I would've been slightly disappointed if he was on pace to put up similar stats as last season. But this is just..bottom of the barrel production..never expected he would fall of a cliff so much.
Bregman started out cold, got scorching hot for a while, and now is back to being cold. He has a .196 BABIP and his K-BB looks really good. I think he will be fine.
If this contract is a failure then that'll make it even less likely you'll see Crane go for one of those 10+ year contracts that go into a players late 30s or early 40s. Production can fall off fast for some players.
Remember when it would be reported there were guys the Astros were interested in, or coveted free agents, then the front office would exercise patience and not go after/overpay said guy, then we'd all be annoyed, but then it would turn out the Astros were right all along to pass on said guy?? Well, if we had a GM this offseason, I think Abreu would have turned out to be one of those guys we passed on that would make us annoyed initially then relieved we have a GM that is smarter than all of us.
While every signing is a gamble, you always have the expectation of getting X, and hope to get Y. In some cases, you get Z. What I don't get is that a guy usually don't go from an above average hitter to worst in the league in a single season. There must must something off that is correctable. Something that would at least get him going at the major league average. So is it no one on the Astros staff can figure this out? Maybe they don't think there is a problem? Perhaps there is a problem the staff knows about it, but the general public doesn't?
The Jose Abreu season has been bizarre. He had a slow start in the Spring and then finished well with an OPS over .900 He then proceeded to have a horrible April, where he did not hit well at all on anything inside. He however hit really well on the outside corner, and didn't struggle too much making contact, but had a low exit velocity - but some of that was that he was only hitting pitches on the outside of the plate. At the beginning of May, he confirmed he was struggling picking up the ball on pitches inside and on the heart of the plate. He has had this issue at least 3-4 times with the White Sox, but always came out of it after 3-4 weeks. It was also noted that he wasn't drawing walks at all. So in the beginning of May, several coaches noted where he was holding his hands was different, and likely contributing to his inability to see the ball. He had been working on that for the last 10 days or so. He now is still not hitting but drawing a lot of walks. As far as I can tell, no one in the organization is saying he is toast. He certainly isn't the only reason the Astros are 4-6 in their last 10, if the offense was solid, they would be 7-3 in the last 10 - but they do need Abreu to hit. McCormick and Brantley are coming back........ that should be a big boost for the Astros. Bregman is going to turn it around, he has had some bad lucky. Diaz when he gets to play, shows signs of being close to a 110 OPS+ guy this year with at bats. Altuve at some point will be back. Lots of depth now - so they can probably give at bats to others if Abreu is this bat at the break..... but I still think he will turn it around. I have seen all of his at bats, and he doesn't look washed to me - he looks off a little though.
Ryan McMahon and George Springer on this list bring me pain…but Abreu is shockingly bad so far. I never would have guessed, and I’m guessing none of you would have ever guessed either.
There have been whispers before with Abreu. Three of four times since he has entered the league there was talk of him being done or slowing down. His bat was called slow when he came over from Cuba...... then they said he was too fat and couldn't play first. He has changed his stroke a few times and he has at times had power outages. However, he would typically get hot a couple months each year and at the end of the year have good numbers. I wasn't shocked he had a bad month of April, he did last year as well. What surprises me is that he hasn't had a hot week or two yet.
Brantley is not a singles hitter. Brantley is a gap to gap doubles hitter. "Singles hitter" implies a hitter who does not get extra base hits and that is not accurate for Brantley. 32.2% of Brantley's hits as an Astro have gone for extra bases. Jose Altuve has 31.8%. Is he a Singles hitter?
The Astros know what the problem is - he isn't seeing the ball well on the inner half of the plate. A couple of the Astros coaches believe it is where his hands are - and he has been working on moving the placement of his hands. They also have said his approach is off because he tried to adjust to not being able to see well on anything in the zone. I suppose a pessimist could say that Abreu lost just enough reflexes and bat speed to be washed - and it is possible, but not likely. The more likely answer is that Abreu has had to adjust in the past - and that it is just a matter of him adjusting again. The increased walks do align with him adopting their proposed change in approach, and his BABIP recently is dreadful so he could have some bad luck the last 10 days or so. I wondered why the Astros didn't give him a couple games off to relax, but Abreu wants to play every day and Dusty wants him to as well - Baker thinks he will bust out of his slump.
Brantley was a doubles hitter. I think it's a fair question whether or not that still holds true, but we will find out soon enough.
