No....I won't. Why? Because you have your QB and DE now. There is no one projected higher than Will Anderson next year (outside of Caleb Williams). I will make a prediction: the Texans' pick will not be in the top 10 in 2024.
If the team has a top pick then it’s likely one of the QB or DE didn’t pan out. They thought the 1st round picks last year will pan out, for example. As far as the risk taken, yes, losing a top pick is a legit concern. If that happens and folks say the team overpaid they won’t be wrong.
I don't see next years Houston pick being higher than 12. Coach +2 wins FA +2 wins Draft +2 wins UDFA and Waiver wire +1 10 wins!
Wins are above expected and relative to other teams. There is no way this team has jumped to ten wins unless both units are in the top 15, and that is very unlikely to happen unless Stroud is an above-average QB from day 1. The number of rookie QBs with that impact are practically zero.
Your 2 wins from the draft is reasonable as Stroud should upgrade our QB play and Anderson should open up opportunities for others on the DLine too. Not so sure about UDFA and Waiver wire but there is pilfering from other teams practice squads and I count Stingley and Metchie coming back and helping out plus I think that Kenyon Green can have a much improved sophomore season. That can count towards that one. Interesting way to tally the wins.
Matt Ryan Andrew Luck Russell Wilson RG3 Joe Burrow Dak Prescott Cam Newton Mac Jones Justin Herbert Andy Dalton Joe Flacco This isn’t a perfect list, some of them were electric but the team played poorly (Newton, Herbert), some really weren’t great but played on solid teams (Flacco, Dalton). Some started off slow and progressed rapidly bc they were brought along well (Wilson). Point is that it isn’t crazy to think Stroud could have a really solid rookie year. Matt Ryan may not be a bad blueprint, a bad team that made significant improvements over the offseason and brought on a talented rookie QB. Ryan wasn’t a revelation, but he was really solid and made good decisions. And that team improved from 4 wins to 11. Wilder things have happened.
The reason Texans can care this year with these high picks, is because they didnt give these picks away in first place. But why not since "next year who cares / points dont matter". Why not during last year's draft, trade this year's pick #2, to add another Kayvon Thibodeux or someone elite potential. Cuz you didnt figure you'd be pick #2. Now you couldnt draft a legit franchise QB this year if you tried. These players havent played in NFL yet, so you better be certain they pay off.
There were potential franchise picks in THIS year's draft. That's why didn't trade anything last year. Also, there was not a generational Defensive pick...in most people's minds. There was no reason to trade. They could have picked Thibodeux without a trade but didn't.
Again, Next-year / Dont-care can be applied to any draft year. It effectively means the future doesnt matter when getting today product. But today was once a "next year" before. You even get your today by preserving it, not dealing it. I can credit the philosophy of them going with 90%'er Sure Fits only, or Prime needs first. Ex: If 90% sure on 1 player and 80% sure on another, only deal in the 90% & above, even if it means trading extra picks. (Like two players in 4th round, 90% sure or higher talent grade on 1, 75% on others, deal another pick for the 90%'er) Then prime needs, like getting the 2 most important positions QB/DE this draft. Can refill other positions but not these 2, now is the time. Yes thats sensible. Like once they got Stroud it freed the other moves. Still the point of higher draft picks is opportunities to fix what you're lacking, or to improve in general. Trading future higher picks means "We wont make a mistake today in improving" I dont know that yet with Caserio. I credit Caserio for not overpaying on salaries, and not doing bye bye Hopkins spite-moves, no Easterby influence. Keeping cap room open. Jury is out on his drafting, he cant keep Nico Collins'ing things. [When has anyone on here seen me "b****ing about anything" with "no supporting info" on here? Dont confuse me with that please lol]
Every time Irsay opens his mouth, I imagine him downin' whiskey and scotch and snortin' a line. Something's ****ed up with that guy....
I would rather have an Elite player *and* a bunch of good to decent players - because you need a few of the former and a whole lot of the later if you want to compete in this league. The draft is the easiest path to acquire those players, and the Texans' have limited their ability to find those players both this year and next - after spending two years seemingly being allergic to finding them.
No, they don’t. The bust rate on 1st rounders is around 50%. If you can draft one that closer to a can’t miss..u do it. The players will come if they see the changes the Texans have made. They won’t have a problem because of money 2024. They last 2 years, Caserio intentionally didn’t sign big money names. That should change going forward.
