Gotcha. So my follow-up question is how do you judge pitchers or hitters in A and AAA. If a pitcher has like a 3 era or something like that in A or AAA, is he a promising pitcher? I know Brown had like a 3 something in AAA. Similarly, if a hitter is tearing it up in say AAA with like a high batting avg, OPS, etc ... should I discount him as a hitter because it's a hitter friendly league? I'd like to know what metrics to look for , for pitchers and hitters. I'm still learning a lot through you all here and will continue to do so .
ERA is not a very good metric to judge pitching prospects. If you can watch the games or follow Twitter to get FB velocity numbers or spin rates, that’s a meaningful number; some of that data is now available at baseball savant for AAA guys. K/9 and BB/9 are 2 other stats I follow closely. Generally, if a prospect is striking guys out then they at least have potential. I could be wrong but I feel like AA is a pretty good proving ground, and if a guy can post double digit k/9 without walking too many guys in AA then I feel like he will usually be able to pitch in the majors in some capacity. But pitching prospects are very hard to evaluate, and that’s without even considering injuries. Also, I always consider the prospects age relative to their competition as meaningful.
Speaking of walks..... Sugar Land walked 13 batters last night in their 22-4 loss. Imagine paying money to go watch that nightmare.
AAA team has been playing absolutely horribly this season. Not sure what’s up with that, their roster looks like it should be talented.
I almost sprung for a flexbook with Sugarland this season. Now, my main reasons for going to see them play would be more individual players than the overall team...but it would make it hard to even enjoy seeing higher end guys like Pedro Leon if the overall team is stinking it up that badly. Glad I held back.
They aren't hitting and they aren't pitching. Dead last in OPS in the PCL. In the bottom 3 in ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 in the PCL. Dirden is barely outperforming Maldonado at the plate. Only guy with an OPS north of .800 with more than 20 ABs is JJ Matijevic.
Yep. Matijevic and Kessinger are the only guys who’ve been worth anything at the plate, and none of the pitchers have been good. Only hope is that once the big league team gets healthy then the AAA team should be better with Julks and Bannon and Salazar/Hensley in their lineup. I never would have expected Dirden, Lee, Leon, Bannon, and Perez to ALL have wRC+ <80 after a full month of the season.
I usually look at K% and BB% first. Swstr rate usually correlates well with K%, but is measured on a pitch by pitch, not PA, so it should stabilize quicker. For hitters, wRC+ or OPS give decent overall pictures, while HRs and SB can hint at speed/power. wRC+ is league adjusted, where 100 is average. Joey Loperfido has a wRC+ of 221 in AA which means he's 121% more productive than the average hitter. I also like to look at batted ball data. Pitchers that have high spin fastballs tend to run up high FB and IFFB (infield flyball) rates, while guys with good sinkers tend to have high GB rates. There's not necessarily a right or wrong number there, but it can let you know how they're succeeding. I don't usually care too much about ERA unless it's just horrific. FIP and xFIP are decent overall indicators for pitchers, but they're just fancy math accounting for strikeouts, walks, and HRs. xFIP is just FIP assuming an average HR rate, so it's better over a small sample size.
I do think that wRC+ is a little unfair to the skeeters here, as their road trips prior to last week had been to OKC and El Paso. Only for the last week have they been playing in the more hitter friendly parks like Reno and Albuquerque. Of course that might have hid just how awful some of the pitching has been. I do think France is probably a fine 5th starter, though. He averaged 95 on his FB again last start.
Is minor league wRC+ even park adjusted or is it simply wOBA scaled to 100? I could see the SL hitters getting a very raw deal given that I believe SL's park is relatively pitcher friendly.
Dubin was solid in 2021, I was hoping he'd contribute last year. I would try converting him to a 1 or 2 inning reliever full-time, he may be better suited as someone who just empties the tank every time he takes the mound and doesn't stretch himself for long. Endersby was great in AA last year, but hasn't been too good in AAA outside of one or two starts. With Bielak promoted the Space Cowboys have no real pitching aside from France unless someone turns it around. Rhett Kouba should definitely be promoted soon, IMO. Has the potential to become a legit prospect.
I think Dubin hasn’t fully recovered from the injury he suffered last season or maybe even has reinjured himself. He was sitting in the high 90s over multiple innings getting close to triple digits before, but this season his velo is down significantly. I was very very high on him but at this point he looks like a much reduced version of who he was. If he’s not hurt or still recovering then he probably should be moved to the pen to see if he can regain a tick or two and be effective in single inning appearances because he is not cutting it as a starter.
