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Can Green + Sengun be our version of Fox + Sabonis?

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by OremLK, Apr 29, 2023.

  1. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    I don't believe the debunked rumors from today at all, but watching the Kings take the Warriors to seven tonight got me thinking about this. Lot of similarities between Green's and Fox's, Sengun's and Sabonis' games. Fox is a better playmaker/passer than Green, something Jalen really needs to work on, and both Sacramento players are better defenders and just more-developed, better overall players at this time, which makes sense since they're in their mid-20s and Green/Sengun are going into their third years.

    In any case, it's an archetype that worked in the regular season and looks like it at least has serious potential in the playoffs (keeping in mind the Kings are still pretty young and inexperienced).

    If you buy into that being one possible formula for success, what, then, do the Kings have surrounding those two guys that's making it work?

    1. Great three point shooting from their roleplayers. Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, and Keegan Murray all really space the floor with high-efficiency on catch-and-shoot opportunities. We're going to have to hope Jabari's rookie struggles are behind him and he can be one of those guys for us moving forward, but we do need to add at least one good three point shooter this offseason. (Cam Johnson?)

    2. An offensive scheme predicated on cutting and pick-and-roll actions. The Rockets played way too much ISO hero ball this past season, mainly due to the proclivities of KPJ and Coach Silas. The Kings' offense involves much more off-the-ball movement, using multiple screens to allow Fox or Sabonis to draw defenders away from cutting roleplayers or hit the open man for a three.

    3. Good team defense led by Sabonis, Keegan Murray, Davion Mitchell, and improved contributions by Fox. Sabonis has been able to be a great defensive anchor for the kings despite similar physical tools to Sengun's, showing that it can be done. Fox appears to be taking that prime years leap on defense and is no longer the negative he was when entering the league. Murray and Mitchell are just solid, solid perimeter defenders who can really help keep the opposing team's best player in check. Hopefully Ime can work with our guys to get our team defense up to spec. It would also make sense to add at least one player who is an absolute dog on defense, even if he only plays 20 minutes a game off the bench.
     
  2. Ancient Moabite

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    Monk is also playing a part as well, Lakers should have retained him over Schroeder

    But you may be on to something with the duo comparison, its still early so I guess we shall see when they hit their 25/26 age seasons, being that is they are still on roster
     
  3. Downtown Sniper

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    Well Sengun is already better than Sabonis offensively. The entire series Sabonis had the one move when making his own offensive play at the ring, and because of that he was called for more than one offensive foul.

    I didn't see any counters to what the defense was showing him.

    Sengun would be eating good if the entire paint was cleared and he was going one v one against the opposing big.
     
  4. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    I've been watching that series through the same lens. One thing that surprised me how limited Sabonis is on offense compared to sengun. He is very stiff(he is the true 'unathletic' center), cannot create much for himself or has passing anywhere near Sengun. And despite that he is averaging a consistent 19 points for the last 4 years and between 5-7 assists(7.3 this season). Sengun should easily surpass these numbers and have a better two-player game with Green, and be a better passing big in general in a system like this.

    I am also expecting significant changes in the way we use off ball screens and hand-offs to get the ball to Green, which should make his life much easier. And show us a glimpse of how much of a success is possible with this type of construction. So totally into the idea!!
     
  5. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    For whatever it's worth (stats only tell part of the story), here is a comparison of their per 36 minutes stats this season:

    Sengun: 18.4 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 3.2 turnovers, 2.4 stocks, 4.3 fouls on .599 TS%
    Sabonis: 19.9 points, 12.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 3.0 turnovers, 1.4 stocks, 3.7 fouls on .668 TS%

    The big story not told by this box score line is that Sabonis is a much better defensive player than Sengun at this time. (He also came into the league as a better defender, IMO.) He challenges and changes a lot more shots that aren't showing up in the box score, and as the box scores do show, he fouls less often.

    And, of course, Sengun is 20, while Sabonis is 26 and has much more professional basketball experience.
     
  6. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    People really do not understand the concept of fitting together.....but they are on a decent way.
     
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  7. riko

    riko Member

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    Green dosent have anywhere near Fox court vision, speed or shooting ability . Stop it. Sabonis is having a rough time with a physical Looney and Green.

    Fox is now in the conversation as a top 20 player.
     
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  8. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    You're just not correct on these two categories, though? Green and Fox are very, very similar in terms of speed/burst/explosiveness. They might be the two fastest players in the league. Fox is a career 32% three-point shooter and Green is a career 34% three-point shooter, so as shooters, Green might actually have the edge, although I think right now Fox does have more of a midrange game.

    You're very correct that Fox has much bettter court vision, playmaking, etc. He's also turned himself into an average-or-better defensive player. Both things Green really needs to work on, but he's young enough to develop in those areas.
     
  9. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    While Fox is not a Halliburton type of playmaker he is a standard attacking PG.

    Green is not a PG by a long shot.

    That itself would suggest both are not in the same category.

    Fox and Westbrook look like sprinters at times yes.
     
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  10. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    He does play point guard for the Kings, but he's definitely more of a score-first guy that looks for his own bucket. 6 assists per game career average. I don't think it's a crazy comparison in today's so-called "positionless" NBA.
     
  11. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    We all love to compare players to players with similar height, strengths and angles but at the end of the day we only get a small glimpse into their organization and life.

    What really makes them a winner vs mediocre player vs loser is mentality and how they view life, stuff like that.

    For example why not compare De'Aaron's love story with Recee, that is giving him strength to play basketball.

    That was quite an inspiring article into his life.

    Sabonis and his full family plus Arvydas.


     
    #11 daywalker02, Apr 29, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2023
    Tfor3 and HardenReturns like this.
  12. Joe Rocket

    Joe Rocket Member

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    Silas never really used or tried to develop Jalen's playmaking. He actively told Jalen he couldn't be a playmaker and offered to put Nix in the game with Jalen as much as possible, because he needed playmaking. Silas was an idiot.
     
  13. AlperenSengun

    AlperenSengun Member

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    Fully agree on defense. Despite the numbers favor Sabonis for ts% and assists, I still think Sengun is the better offensive player and it is not very close.

    1) Silas's system(if you can call it one) did not help players to get good shots
    2) Sabonis gets about 50% touches than sengun per game
    3) Sabonis has career high ts% and assists, not sure if this is sustainable
    4) Sengun averaged the same number of assists as Sabonis in January when he was used as a passer
    5) A lot of sabonis's assists come within the system from hand offs, or as the final passer when the team is moving the ball.

    My intention is not to put Sabonis down, but rather emphasize that Sengun would thrive under such a role to easily surpass sabonis. And as you mentioned, Sengun is 20, which still sounds crazy.
     
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  14. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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  15. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Sengun I sincerely believe is flat out more talented than Sabonis. As long as he takes his physical fitness as serious as Sabonis, he'll eclipse him maybe even as early as next season. That slow physical transformation really gave Sabonis a bit of an edge he needed. Sengun can definitely use that edge.

    Green I think has much better potential than Fox. I understand that Fox is peaking and having an incredible season, however I also remember everything that was said about him at the start of his career:

    - Not a winning player, poor shot selection
    - Too weak and small, doesn't look like he can put on muscle
    - No defense at all so without size and triple double potential, his ceiling is very limited

    It's amazing what some good coaching can do. Fox started off putting on muscle, then he improved his 3pt shot slowly, then he started making more winning plays, then only in the latter half of this season onwards he started giving effort on defense. He was a terrible defender most of this regular season but like Green you have to give him that it's hard to play defense at the point of attack when the team absolutely sucks as a defensive unit and no one is able to protect the rim yet.

    Green is a different player type more like Kobe or MJ or KD. The humongous majority of his future is predicated on defense and unassisted scoring. Bringing up his assist or rebounding numbers is not going to make a difference to his impact much imo if he doesn't improve his defense. Of course that shouldn't stop him from gradually improving his passing and getting more assists.

    I'm curious @OremLK why you think the reports about Green are bogus. I assumed the organization leaked this because no coach seeking a HC position is going to F his image up by leaking what he was told in an interview to the public.
     
  16. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Tari called it out as fake news, we also had this:


    Nobody in the organization has talked about it as a possibility publicly. I can believe it came up in conversations, nothing is off-limit for discussions and the Rockets can't control what coaching candidates say or what other front offices ask for in trade talks, but that doesn't mean they are actually motivated to trade him.
     
    #16 OremLK, Apr 29, 2023
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2023
  17. Ancient Moabite

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    So Fox wasn't top 20 after 82 game season but now based on six postseason games he is magically top 20? Practice what you preach

    Doesn't have anywhere near the speed? He may not ever have the court vision as the PG Fox but by time he reaches Fox age his shot should be plenty wet as long he stays in the gym and keeps his confidence in tact
     
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  18. riko

    riko Member

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    Fox was clearly knocking on the top 20 door by the all star break. The guy is the best clutch player in the nba. He carried his team to the third seed and just went to golden state and forced a game 7 back in Sacramento. This is not based on the playoffs.


    It was clear that he was a stud by the all star break.
     
  19. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    Yeah it only took 5.5 years.

    Imagine they traded him 4 years ago because he wasn't a stud, didn't play defense and was a less efficient scorer than Jalen Green his first two seasons. How stupid would that have been, right?
     
  20. Mathloom

    Mathloom Shameless Optimist

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    I literally don't know whether that Twitter account is more reliable than Yahoo sports. What do I not know about that account's legitimacy? I've seen tweets from there before and people seem to believe it's reliable but I don't know on what basis other than they have been right at some point in the past.

    I think it's possible it's fake news. I think it's also possible it's true and they told Jalen it's not who then told Tari. Wouldn't put it past this org, especially if Tilman was in the meetings. Can't deny he has always seemed very two faced, even the other day acting like Daryl begged him not to spend luxury tax lol.

    I hope that it's fake news. Would be a monumentally stupid decision to trade him for a vet at this point where his value is likely to be the lowest of his career under Silas and Stone's aggressive tanking regime. Even if you are going to trade him, at least put a better season on his resume and get real value.

    These front office guys must think they have nothing to do with the stalled development. The way they f*cked over Silas firing him after he absorbed 3 seasons of losing on a blank coaching record (don't get me wrong, I'm glad we moved on, but it was a dirty move nonetheless) tells me a lot about their identity.
     

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