What is the reasonable expectation for a FULL REBUILD?

Technically wouldn't this classify when Rockets went full rebuild? Sure, they were trying to win, especially after riding the high of a 7 game winning streak with WOW, but you know, reality then set in and they sucked, and they sucked real bad. At that point, rebuild had commenced, no? Maybe you are just getting at technicalities and this is above my head. I believe there is a thread for beefing posters on this forum (@Os Trigonum help).

 

I expect teams to make errors. If you screw up the 1st year of a rebuild, well you've lost a year. If things go well right off the bat, 2-4 years will likely be the answer. If not, 5 or more. I picked 5-6. Though would have gone 4-5 if that was an option.

For the Rocket's situation, their rebuild started in the middle of the season which basically had them horrible without actually being able to rebuild much. Their cap was messed up due to the Westbrook trade and were down a lot of picks due to the 1st Westbrook trade.

I'd hoped Wood and KPJ would be better, but expectation was that it was going to take someone else to bring the Rockets back. I'm a little down on Green and Jabari than prior to the season. If Green doesn't pan out as an all-star, the Rockets will likely have two really bad years added to what would be expected on a rebuild that goes well.

 

Guess it depends Ethel franchise. The Lakers and Miami seem to be better at it than say Charlotte.

 

I think the yolo slam fisher beef qualifies

 

not really. starting from scratch doesn't include a roster of super max and vets on clearly aren't in your full rebuild plans. Those absolutely factor in and limit what you can do to start over from scratch in a full rebuild, which the rockets started when they got their first piece in Green in the summer of 2021

 

Get to .500?

With a vet or two, whatever draft pk they bring in and Udoka's leadership, they could get there this year. I expect a big jump from Bari, Tari, JG and Gun and TyTy.

When's the lottery???

 

Full rebuild should “end” at Playoffs, not .500, imo.

And I think it should take 5 years on the low side, probably 7 years on the high side (factoring for weird unpredictable wonkiness).

 

It's different for every team. The Rockets essentially got sucker-punched and had to make drastic decisions immediately. During the season where Harden asked for his trade, I think that they tried to get a return to keep the team afloat, but by the end of that season, it was obvious that they were going to go with a complete rebuild and ended up with the 2nd overall pick. That happened fast! The Rockets then artificially suppressed their record to continue getting good draft picks. Over a 3three year period, it appears that they will have picked 7 players in the first round, with 5 being in the top 20 and 3 in the top 5. Additionally, during the summer of that 3rd rebuilding draft, they will have enough cap space to sign two max contracts. That is enough resources to have the "rebuild" done. Yes, you might have to give some additional time for growth, but from next season on, it should just be about improving and filling in holes. Not every team can have it fast-tracked like that, but I don't think it is unreasonable for this fanbase to expect the rebuild to be over following this summer and to start expecting results.

 

Full rebuild should “end” at Playoffs, not .500, imo.

And I think it should take 5 years on the low side, probably 7 years on the high side (factoring for weird unpredictable wonkiness).

While I understand your logic, and it sucked for us as fans to “count” that year as a lost, crap season…

I don’t think that year should count toward the Rebuild Clock, as the organization wasn’t able to properly reorient and start rebuilding until after that year finished.

In accounting parlance, I charge that year to the final year of the Harden Era, not the first year of the rebuild.

 

I don't know if getting to .500 is the important question because it can be super quick or take decades. It's was the rebuild worth it?

Rockets could make trades right now that could make us a .500 team. In fact, simply by signing Harden we will likely be .500. But, getting to .500 doesn't mean it was a success. Getting to .500 with just Harden doesn't really increase our chances of being a contender in a few years.

Rebuilds usually involves some type of decision to go in 1 direction, tear down the house, and rebuild around core piece(s). There have been successful rebuilds without complete tear downs as well, so that's not the only formula.

Rebuilds usually last as long as it takes to acquire 1 franchise player without losing everything to get them (let's say top 5 player) or multiple top 25 players. For the Kings that was close to 2 decades. For Lakers they won a Championship in 2010, a few years later bottomed out, then a few years later traded for Anthony Davis and signed Lebron and won a Championship. So their rebuild was less than 7 years. Raptors lost their best player and had 1 season under .500, then made the playoffs and I personally believe if they were able to land Durant they would've been contenders. You could also argue Raptors didn't "rebuild". Heat won a Championship in 2015, lost Lebron and by 2020 were in the finals again with a totally new squad.

If I were to guess, without looking back at specific contending teams,...

I'd say a reasonable expectation to the formula we are using:
Phase 1 of rebuild (2-4 years): Tear down the team, acquire future assets, draft well
Phase 2 (1-4 years): Reset the culture (if needed), put more emphasis on wins without neglecting development, either build around the guys you drafted (current celtics) or acquire them (current lakers) or some kind of hybrid (Lebron Heat, current Kings). See how far you think they can push you to see if you should quit the current rebuild or contend if you want to contend then go to phase 3
Phase 3 (1 to 5): Fill in the holes to contend

So I'd guess 3-8 years would be considered a reasonable expectation on a rebuild (rebuild is over the moment the team looks ready to contend). Our rebuild started Jan 2021 when we picked a direction after trading Harden.

This off season is a huge offseason for coach (check), draft (out of our control, but could be frnachise changing), and free agents (talent/value/fit).

I hope we don't get desperate just to get to .500 as quick as we can and put thought into how that affects the possibility of being a contender in the future. Rockets core (whether you think that's 1 player or 5) are YOUNG and have time on their side. Rockets getting better each year and growing together is extremely valuable.

 

3-4 years is extremely fast for a full rebuild. Philly, Phoenix, Sacramento, and NYK took way longer than that. Detroit and Orlando are four years and counting and nowhere close. I thought Charlotte did well drafting LaMelo, but the Miles Bridges fiasco put them in the Wemby sweepstakes again and they've had one winning season in the past seven years. OKC technically hasn't gotten back to .500 yet, but I consider them well on the way and it's only been three seasons since their last playoff appearance. However, they already had their blue chip star in SGA plus extra picks since the PG trade in 2019 so their rebuild got a huge head start.

The revised lottery odds make it harder to rebuild via tank like Philly did and even they took years. The worst team used to have a 1/4 odds of getting the top pick, now it's 1/7. And a rebuild can be location dependent. An attractive city for free agents like LA, NY, or Miami has a huge advantage. Lebron and AD, Kawhi and PG, and KD and Kyrie were never going to team up in a city like Sacramento for instance. So while Lakers fans can expect a 3-4 year rebuild, Sacramento could never reasonably expect the same timeframe. Houston is a mid-tier city for free agents.

 

There's been a clear vision and path, you just don't agree with it, like it, or feel confident in the players we've selected. That's fine too. Hopefully this year is better for you as a fan.

 

How are you defining the end of the rebuild? Competitive on a nightly basis? Playoffs? Winning a playoff series? True Contenders? A Championship? The one that you choose could greatly change the timeframe.

 

I would say 6 or 7 years makes sense.

JR posted some examples.

But, it really just comes down to when you draft a true superstar, a few years of experience for them, then a couple years to get a team around then.

If you haven't drafted a superstar, everything else is fairly irrelevant.

So, you can say "We need to win NOW!" and you may get to that 0.500 mark but you'll just end up staying around there if you don't get a true superstar through the draft/trade/free agency.

 

.500 is achieavable imo. 2-3 years.

 

We tanked for the highest picks 3 years in a row, cleared cap space, picked players with high upside. It's really that simple.

 

Ok, then I'd say that if your goal is just making the playoffs then 5-6 years is very doable. You spend 2-3 years accumulating assets and then just go out and trade your young guys and picks for vets. That would likely be the quickest way to make the playoffs but not the fastest way to win a title.

It really comes down to what's your ultimate goal?