I'm excited about Ime and the upcoming season, but...

Love you Plowman

But surely this could have gone into one of the x-thousand Ime threads??

 

This is my main worry too. We have to try to get better, no reason to tank anymore, but we need to be careful to do it without stepping onto the mediocrity treadmill. It would be very easy to make the wrong trade here, or, a lesser-but-still-real concern, to make a bad free agent signing that cripples us in two or three years when we're right on the cusp.

The draft lottery will be a key turning point. If it goes our way, the offseason will be relatively straightforward. If we get #1, you just take Wemby and assume he's the guy you build around and make all your decisions around that. Other young players become, not necessarily expendable, but at least easier to trade. If you get #2, you take Scoot, you don't make any aggressive trades, just cautious free agent signings or smaller deals, you be patient with our whole core, and you wait and see who emerges as a superstar in the next two or three years.

If we get a later pick that's when I'm going to really sweat bullets. A lot of opportunities to screw things up. You can start to envision them really blowing it to trade for a star who isn't good enough and watching our young guys blossom into superstars with other teams. The history of the NBA is littered with the rotting corpses of organizations who made the wrong trade and sold a future star for trash, committing themselves to a decade or more of mediocrity.

 

Really, this isn't about Ime, it's about what Stone can manage to do in the draft / FA & trade, particularly the latter two. There's gonna be change & the OP doesn't appear to want to give up on the young guys in favor of veterans just yet.

Think about how a veteran acquisition or even a draft pick at any given position affects the young guys already on the roster at those positions.

If they land a quality point guard, KPJ and Tyty probably lose minutes or one could be traded.

Lots of people wanting to add Bridges or Brown, both play the 3 spot along with some 2. That probably eats into any minutes Christopher may have gotten and relegates one of Tari and KMJ to the end of the bench while the other gets spot minutes.

Others talking about Grant from Portland or Williams from Boston - both 4's. They wouldn't be coming here to play behind Jabari? He may get bumped to the bench with either of those acquisitions.

James Harden? KPJ is running the second unit or shipped out ....

Austin Reaves? Possible Green is with the 2nd unit or maybe even traded .... unless Reaves was the defacto point guard in which case KPJ is the victim.

Draft Wemby and one of Sengun or Jabari is losing their starting spot. There is no playing those three together when Sengun is the best 3 point shooter among them at .333 with Jabari .307 and Wemby sub .300 from international 3.

I have a hard time believing that they begin the season with a starring five of KPJ, Green, Martin, Jabari & Sengun.
That 5 contributed to 22 wins over the past season .... there aint no running it back.

One or more of those dudes is benched for an upgrade or sent out in a trade returning who knows what ....

 

I agree with you. We shouldn't lose one of Alpi, Jalen, Bari, Tari, for a desperate "win now" superfriends move.

 

I'm against trading Jalen Green/Jabari for Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown is a one year rental that will use free agency
as leverage to get his max money of 4/$190 million.

$47.5M on the average......$43M the first year. And that's max money, not super max.

That will reduce a James Harden window significantly.
Didn't we already go through that?

I see Green as new age MJ/Kobe. Yes MJ, that won 6 championships
Frank the Tank.

Jabari is my version of JJJ of Memphis.

Patience is a key word......Harden gives us a
four year window followed 10 more years by the
21 year old Jalen Green, passing the baton.

The next Jalen Green contract is considerably
less than the 27 year old Brown next season.

 

What I learned so far.

Take one step at a time and this....

 

What I learned so far.

Take one step at a time and this....

 

Given that OKC only really controls our pick this year I think Stone will build in a trap door to be able to position for the draft again next season if the off-season signings/trades don’t work out. It’s not like we are the Lakers or Nets where there’s essentially endless seasons on the horizon with no ability to draft high.

I wouldn’t be too concerned with Stone gutting our youth at all because of this. Our 2025 pick could still align with Jalen, Jabari, Sengun, etc. as they start to really improve in 25-28 which should be their peaks.

 

Great post OP. Everything we did the last 3 seasons was to build what we have now. The teams that are regularly contending are simply the ones that made the most of their assets and cap space, nothing more nothing less.

The only assets we should be willing to invest in are:

1) Top tier stars: I'm talking top tier. I'm not saying the best of this offseason. I'm saying TOP tier in the NBA. These players become available once every 1.5-2 years maybe, and you obviously don't always get them. These players are worth waiting for, they stabilize a franchise's wins for 5-10 years at a time. This asset should net you at least 4 first round picks in the future.

2) Liquid assets: these are assets that are highly likely to always be at least a net positive in trades. You're talking about players who almost outperform their contract or better according to a majority of analysts. We're talking about the draft picks, the Jaylen Browns, the Lauri Markannens, the Jarrett Allens, the Mikal Bridges of the league. We're not talking about a guy who's best year is to come and still under question (e.g. Cam Johnson, even though he could end up outperforming his contract in some scenarios). We're talking about guys who had a serious sample of games in the past they can easily recreate and it would be worth more than their contract. These are SAFE assets with almost no betting on potential required. This asset should net you roughly 2 good picks in a trade where you take back an expiring contract.

3) Role players on EXCELLENT contracts are always ok. These are always sought after even in trades for top tier stars and they are easy to dump FOR FREE because a team with cap space can flip them for picks. A good example here is Al Horford. A bad example here is John Collins.

Toxic assets are:

1) Those that are increasing in price while the player is declining in value and whose contracts coincide with key extension windows (i.e. 2025 onwards). Old players or players with an artificial peak usually fall into this category. James Harden is a very good example here.

2) Assets that affect other assets. You get a guy with terrible attitude or out of control ego, there are way too many young minds around learning how to be NBA players. We can't have assets that we believe ourselves to be the hero in rebuilding. We don't have to be a hero, we just need to get guys with good value.

LONG STORY SHORT: keep it simple stupid. When you have 4 potential franchise players in their early 20's, then you can afford to play slow and safe. One by one just sign the best player that you can sign for good value and that alone (with good coaching and development) will make us a contender in 3 years. Homeruns are a bonus, not a necessity. Only swing for one if you're close to the prize and are very sure. It's better to miss out on 1 opportunity than to strike out on 1 opportunity.

No one can reasonably make a case that another team should be more patient than us. We are the prototype team for teams that should be patient. We have cap space, we have future picks, we have great young talent and we supposedly have a great coach. No one can afford to be more patient. No one should be in less of a rush to climb the standings.

Obviously Tilman is sh*tting in all of this because we've heard now several times he wants to blow his load this summer no matter who or what is available. I'd just advise Stone to align with Udoka and for them both to confront the owner and his son to say: if you want to win the most you can possibly win for the next 5-10 years, don't be the most reckless spender this summer. It's that simple.

 

Go Rockets!!!
…….
…….
…….

 

@Deckard

 

I think my ipad likes mangling my posts...

 

i clicked in this thread simply bc of the big 'BUTT' - curiosity killed the cat
(alright, edited)

 

do not, repeat, do not google "big butt gifs" if you know what's good for you

 

If folks were expecting every young player on this roster to be on it when the rockets finally became relevant again you’re going to be disappointed and set yourself up for failure. Because that was never going to happen and when teams become good again they organically shuffle out who doesn’t fit

 

praying for Scoot and Jarace...