What Meyers has done this season projects out for a full season about the same as Chas's career stats project to a full season (Chas gives up a little in defense though still very good, but has hit RHPs better).
While I don't have anything concrete to back the claim up with, I think Meyers defensive value is more than slightly better. I believe Chaz's defensive metrics in 2021 were some statistical noise you occasionally see with defensive metrics, and his corner OF values were better than his CF numbers have been. Not that I think Chaz is bad or anything, he's fine defensively in CF, maybe even above average. I think Meyers is just that good at getting to balls, even if he is giving a little back with the arm now.
Once he's back, Brantley will play 75% of the games. If a chuck of those games could be at 1B that would be huge.
13 position players: Maldy, Abreu, Altuve, Bregman, Pena, Alvarez, Brantley, Tucker, Chas, Dubon, Meyers, Hensley, Diaz or Salazar. What if? c) Maldy 75%, Diaz/Salazar 25% 1B) Abreu 75%, Brantley 25% 2B) Altuve 85%, Dubon 15% 3B) Bregman 95%, Hensley 5% SS) Pena 95%, Dubon 5% LF) Alvarez 70%, Chas 30% CF) Meyers 65%, Chas 35% RF) Tucker 95%, Chas 5% DH) Brantley 50%, Alvarez 25%, Abreu 15%, Altuve 10%.
Meyers is very good defensively even with his noodle arm. Probably in to top 5-7 in the league from a defensive standpoint.
Do you use DRS? I like OAA for range as it does not need to approximate starting, ending positions, and quality of contact as it gets raw statcast data to be very precise using a similar methodology. Regarding range, there's the only one play Chas missed in CF from 2021-2023 that OAA says is caught at least 25% of the time: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=c298c55e-4806-4189-b26f-4ecd9a9ba0f7 Besides for fumbling a grounder in 2021, that's it for the easy to difficult plays (up to 4 stars by OAA) Chas has not made in CF that are not arm related. A good jump, but slightly bad angle with a 7-0 lead and 1 grounder fumbled. That's it in CF. Chas does not have top end speed to make the best of the best plays like Meyers, but Chas makes the easy to merely difficult plays in CF more consistently than Meyers (and probably every other CF over the last 3 years) as he almost always gets a good jump. In other words, Meyers's best plays made are more difficult to make than Chas's, but the easiest plays Chas misses (other than turning a walkoff sac fly into a walkoff error while in LF) are on average more difficult than the easiest plays Meyers misses.
On catch probability added (i.e., to make it a per play basis because OAA is a counting stat) by Statcast among all CFs from 2021-2023 1. Siri 5% 2. Meyers 5% 3. Chas 5% 54. Dubon 0% Had to lower the attempts slightly to get Dubon listed. This is just a range stat so Chas drops a little due to his arm, but not slightly above average.
I used defensive run saved and total zone total fielding over his career. Chas has actually been well above average this season in centerfield. I'm a big Chas fan. He's worked his ass off and he's a World Series hero.
I am very interested in seeing Meyers' arm measurement once he gets enough throws to be recorded. ( I think it's 100 throws) 2021= 60th percentile 2022= 42nd percentile. I am hoping he can get it back over 50. His legs and instincts will help but that gets him from very good to elite.
I would think his power would correlate with his arm strength. His avg EV so far this season (88.2) is better than 2022 (87.3) but lower than 2021 (89.5), and his max EV is 107.2 (was 107.8 in 2022 and 111 in 2021). All that is still also in small sample territory but I hope he keeps getting everyday play for at least another month so we can see where his arm and power are really at since those 2 factors will likely determine his overall value. He is going to post a single digit walk rate with a k rate in the upper 20s, but a plus arm and 90mph EV still makes him a 3 win player (peak Kevin Kiermaier), while a below average arm and 87mph EV makes him a fringey regular or 4th OF (Jake Marisnick).
I am a big fan of Chas, too. I'm not sure if Chas can hold off Meyers (though, I think Meyers needs to earn it on the field in larger sample than we've seen so far). Chas just looks like a guy that has been getting the absolute best possible results with his talents since he's been up. Meyers, when things are going well, looks like he produces just as well, but it looks like with ease (i.e., he could get even better). I'm not sure Chas's bat plays well enough in LF, and I blame MMP (though could be bad luck), but he was not getting the defensive opportunities to maintain his defensive value in LF last season.
I think it's just perception since he's never gone on a tear. He's just super consistent. However I think he's gotten consistently better. This season, he's hitting 1.3 OPS against lefties and has gotten to a very respectable .730 against righties. I think he will continue to get better against righties if he gets the reps. The guy is world class against lefties so he will be in the league if just only as a situational hitter with a career OPS obove 900. The weird thing is that most of his power is to opposite field. Maybe he should open up his stance a little.
I've always felt Jake Marisnick was a good comp. I like Kiermaier too. Marisnick had 10.8 bWAR over 1681 PA for the Astros. That's 2.6 bWAR over 400 PA. Meyers is Slightly behind that for his career (2.3 in 378 PA = 2.43) But in 2021 and so far this year he is exceeding those numbers. Either way, a 2.5+ bWAR from your minimum salary CF who is expected to be your 7th or 8th best position player ( who plays most days but not everyday) is a very valuable thing.
I too am a big fan of Chas. It's a shame they are such similar players. But I agree that Chas earned the position last year and has done nothing to lose it. Unfortunately, Dusty clearly wants it to be Jake's job. He proved that by starting him both of the first 2 games of the season despite Chas being healthy. Jake choked in those 2 games or else Chas may not have even had this chance at the breakout he was showing. The injury gave Meyers another shot and he has capitalized. Bad for Chas. Great for Jake and the Astros. There is going to he a huge OF traffic jam soon. Maybe after all star break, maybe next season, but it's coming.
Brantley won't be here next season and I still don't think Yordan should be an everyday outfielder. That would leave Meyers in center and Chas in left assuming they both keep on doing what they are doing. Julks would be out 5th outfielder if you consider Yordan an outfielder. Again, this assumes everyone keeps on doing what they are doing. The big wild card is Leon with his canon of an arm. If he starts hitting, then things will get crazy.
Mlb pipeline has 6 of top 7 prospects as OF and that does not include Julks. Furthermore, all of them except Clifford project to be MLB ready this year or next. ( they have Gilbert and Melton listed as 2025 buy I think the Astros expect them to move faster) That leaves: Yordan, Tucker, Chas, Meyers, Julks, Dirden, Gilbert, Melton, Barber, and Leon as OF options for next year. Plus maybe guys like Corona or Loporfido who could surprise.
I smell a Chas for a bullpen piece type move come the deadline and I'd completely hate it. Then for no expected reason Meyers goes off in the postseason.
