Perhaps your experience does not include Lemmings but I feel certain Crane's does. I doubt joining them is part of his plan for the future.
Oh I understand not being willing to do the Ohtani deal. However, not giving Kyle Tucker a long deal bothers me. He just turned 26 this offseason when they were negotiating. Look at the Austin Riley deal. That looks like an absolute steal after the Machado extension.
Absolutely - I suspect if Crane could get Tucker for that contract, he'd jump on it. But unfortunately, I suspect Tucker is looking for a bigger payday. I think the real strategy is the Tampa one - identify people who you're confident will be long-term pieces and offer them a ton of money in a long-term deal in their rookie year. If you wait until the player is proven, there's too much incentive to just wait out free agency and go for a $300MM deal.
Yea... that is the case now after the insane offseason. So maybe getting Tucker done before then like the Braves did with Riley was the move. Now I think Tucker would need like 260 million to not test free agency.
The thing a hitter wants to avoid at all costs is to be a FA between 32-35. Before 32 he can still get a good enough contract (Semien 7 / $175 @31) and at 36+ he is past his prime so does not expect a big contract. To accomplish that, an extension for Tucker would be either: 3 yrs coveting only 1 FA year which makes no sense because the 1 FA year would need to be massive driving up the entire AAV and only help 1 season. Or At least 9 years covering his entire prime and be the largest contract in club history by a huge amount. And be much larger than Crane has said he is willing to go)
10 for 300 should absolutely be the number for both sides. Neither would probably love that but both should do that (unless Tucker just doesn’t want to live in houston- which is obviously his perogative.
Imagine how much better this team would be with Rizzo. I doubt we wold have had a shot even with a GM but obviously without Click that was a nonstarter.
IIRC this was a smokescreen, and it sounded like one. Make your rival think you're trying to steal their guy away so they desperately up their offer to keep him, and then pivot to and sign your true target. Oldest trick in the book. Rizzo signed very quickly. From what I've heard, Abreu was their guy all along. But Bagwell certainly played a role in getting the deal over the top. The Marlins were in on him as well, and it seems Bagwell was the man who put the deal over the top. We'll see how his season goes, but he'll be 37 and 38 in the last two years of the deal. I think he has shown signs of aging and regression because his average velo is down and he doesn't really turn on fastballs like he used to (this trend actually begun last year). But I agree, first base is supposed to be a power position, not a slap-hitting singles hitter's position. I would certainly love to see 25 (at minimum) homers from the cold corner.
https://theathletic.com/4440986/2023/04/23/astros-hitting-without-jose-altuve/ The José Abreu dilemma Abreu is a notorious slow starter. His career OPS in March/April is .778. He boasts an .835 clip or higher in every other month. That — and perhaps that alone — affords at least some optimism Abreu will morph into the hitter Houston paid $58.5 million this winter. Not much else in Abreu’s underlying metrics suggests a turnaround is near. He averaged an 87 mph exit velocity on the first 63 batted balls of his season — more than four miles per hour softer than his career average. His 22.7 percent strikeout rate and 27.3 percent whiff rate are all above his career averages. Entering Saturday, only 15 qualified hitters had a lower OPS than Abreu’s .574 mark. Abreu entered Saturday’s game slashing .253/.295/.289. His expected slugging percentage, according to Statcast, is .393. The Astros accepted that age may have sapped some of Abreu’s power, but still hailed the 36-year-old as an elite run producer. Baker keeps treating him as such, but it’s worth wondering how much longer he can afford it. Abreu has hit cleanup in all 21 games this season and, as a result, has taken more plate appearances with runners on base than any Astros hitter. Abreu has as many strikeouts (10) as RBIs (10) during those situations. Baker is very wary of batting two lefthanded hitters — Alvarez and Tucker — back-to-back in his batting order, but if Abreu continues to crater, he may have no choice. Kyle Tucker’s patience Tucker has hit fifth, just behind Abreu, in all but two games he’s started. The four hitters behind Tucker range from strikeout-prone to still-developing to a defensive-first catcher — making it more difficult for Houston’s most productive hitter to swing the bat. Tucker entered Saturday’s game with a 45.8 percent swing rate. His career average is 51.8 percent. Tucker and Alex Bregman share the team lead with 15 walks apiece. For Bregman, it’s nothing new. Tucker, meanwhile, has never finished a major-league season with a walk rate higher than 10 percent. He entered Saturday walking at a 17.7 percent clip. “I think that’s just how it’s going,” Tucker said on Friday. “I think swinging less is probably just because they’re throwing more balls and I’m getting more walks. I don’t know if they’re trying to be more careful with me just because they might have a better chance with whoever’s hitting behind me. I don’t know if that’s the reason for it or not, but they’re just throwing more balls and I’m just laying off a good amount of them.” Tucker’s 23.7 percent chase rate is nearly three percentage points lower than his career average. Tucker’s discipline is commendable, but for the Astros to actualize their full offensive potential, he needs more chances to swing and create more damage. Abreu’s anemia ahead of him does not afford it. Jeremy Peña’s fastball problem Expecting Jeremy Peña to repeat his playoff performance throughout his sophomore season is silly. Peña had an out-of-body experience last October while guiding the Astros to a World Series championship, slashing .345/.367/.638 in 61 postseason plate appearances — numbers that don’t at all match the offensive tendencies Peña showed during the regular season. Peña’s numbers this April are more akin to the type of hitter he is over a larger sample size: a power threat with a problem making contact and a propensity to chase breaking pitches down and away. He entered Saturday’s game slashing .226/.293/.405. Nine of his 19 hits have been for extra bases. A 29 percent whiff rate and a team-high 23 strikeouts are problematic, but not unexpected. What is? Peña’s perplexing struggles against fastballs. He slugged .560 with a .293 batting average against four-seam fastballs last season, but went into Saturday’s game just 3-for-22 with nine strikeouts against them. Peña is seeing slightly more four-seamers (27.5 percent) than sliders (26.1 percent). Peña had a run value of 6 against four-seamers last season. Entering Saturday, it was negative-3. “That tells me he’s so conscious of the breaking ball,” Baker said. “And when you’re conscious of the breaking ball, and they’re throwing you a lot of breaking balls, then they can slip that fastball by him. I saw it happen to Matt Williams when I was the batting coach (with the San Francisco Giants). You get so breaking ball conscious that you can’t hit fastballs.”
Pena better become conscious to the fact that Dubon is probably a better option than him at SS right now and if that continues he could wind up losing his job. I think what is more interesting than his slow start offensively, which was entirely predictable, is how poor he has been in the field. Chandler should have wrote about that.
There's no scenario in which Pena is losing the starting job this year unless his bat becomes Maldonado like for half the season. Dubons offensive numbers have been on a pretty steady downturn the last week even though it "seems" like he's playing well. If you never walk or hit for any power it's almost impossible to be an even average bat.
I keep hearing the Austin Riley deal being brought up with Tucker, but I feel pretty certain that if that deal was viable with Tucker, it would have already been done. Tuck is looking for a way bigger payday than that, and frankly he should be. I do think we should resign him though.
I don’t think Peña will lose his job, but he has been worse offensively and in the field so far this season than Dubon. I would hope his fielding will pick up at some point even if his bat doesn’t.
I can't believe we even have people saying things like this. As good as Dubon has been, his ops is about .35 points higher than Pena right now. Dubon's woba, which is a much better stat than OPS, is .16 points higher. This is absolutely peak, peak Dubon and this is underperforming Pena. Not to mention Pena is about 1000x better defensively as SS than Dubon. NOT TO MENTION, of ****ing anyone, Pena deserves about as much benefit of the doubt as anyone on the roster. eta: Don't know why I am mansplaining to you specifically. Clearly I'm preaching to the choir. I just don't know where all these fair weather fans are coming from.
I like Rizzo and would have been fine with him. But I still think Abreu is a perfect fit for this team and expect it to work out. I am interested to keep tabs on this and compare as the season goes on. I bet Abreu ends up with similar or better numbers. Thru 4/22: Astros 11-10, Yankees Abreu 21g 93PA. .574ops, 3 xbh, -0.4bWAR Rizzo 20g 86PA. .960ops, 8 xbh, 1.0 bWAR For the hell of it Yuli: 10g 39PA, .722ops, 2 xbh, -0.1 bWAR.
