The odds of Ohtani being an Astro as a rental trade or signing as a free agent are about the same as Roberto Osuna returning to MLB and being name the Marvin Miller Man of the Year. 1. I'm not convinced the Angels will trade him. He is such a valuable asset I believe they are likely to hold onto him until the bitter end. They will make a serious effort to keep him. Think about how irrelevant the Angels become without him. While trading him might be the "smart" move if they fall out of contention... I really doubt they pull the trigger. Don't worry though. The rumor mill will be absolutely insane because Ohtani equals clicks and the media will be making $hit up every day to get those clicks. 2. Astros don't have the prospects IF he is traded. Go look at recent rental trades for star players. Machado cost the Dodgers 5 prospects including a top 100 player. Bannon, a current Astro, was actually one of those 5. Ohtani would cost more, and I would think the price STARTS at 2 top 100 prospects. 3. This will probably anger the most people in here... He doesn't fit the Astros roster long term. Sure, for a rental you could make it work but he doesn't fit long term. Ohtani has 8 1/3 total innings playing the outfield his entire MLB career. He ate up 660 plate appearances at DH last season. While many want Yordan to be the regular LF he just isn't and as he gets closer to his 30s he will be at DH even more. So far Yordan has played in 17 games with 9 games in LF and 8 at DH. After tonight it will be even a 9 since Yordan is in the lineup as the DH. 4. Crane isn't handing out a 500-600 million dollar contract to one player for 10-11 years. He hasn't even done a 7 year deal for any amount and he's going to do that? Keep dreaming.
On your #4, a case could be made that this would be an excellent business decision. How much more revenue would be generated with Ohtani on the team? How about the overall value of the franchise? Maybe the Astros win a few more World Series and then Crane sells the team in 5 years when they are at their peak value and he makes an incredible profit off his original purchase price.
You mentioned the upside but not the downside. The contract is guaranteed. The increase in revenue is not. What happens if Ohtani slides into 2nd base in his first spring training game as an Astro and ruins his shoulder like Carlos Hernandez? Now you have a turd sandwich that is the combo of old Jeff Bagwell and Stephen Strasburg that can't hit or pitch. Nobody is buying more tickets if Ohtani isn't on the field and that projected increased revenue vaporizes. I'm sure one response would be well the contract would be insured. That doesn't mean much on a 10-11 year contract because most of the insurance policies are for 3-4 years. Then you have to renew with higher premiums because as a player ages he is more likely to be injured. If he can't pass a physical the insurance won't renew, will now not cover the new pre-existing injury, and for years 4-11 the MLB team is screwed. The insurance also only covers 60-80% percent of contract and the premiums are around 3% for position players and 7% for pitchers . Pre-existing injuries aren't covered usually because it increases the premiums 300 to 400 percent or drastically limits the payout. So if Ohtani needed a 2nd Tommy John and that ended his career the insurance is unlikely to cover anything. This is part of the formula that nobody talks about when complaining that Crane won't do a long term contract.
I don’t mess with that unless the extensions already agreed to before the trade is consummated. that’s not legal per se, but I’m sure it happens.
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This is an inherent risk with any large contract worth more than 3 years in all sports. Nobody needs to over-analyze it like this. I'm sure you'd be worried about the rising per diem costs on these guys' food/hotel expenditures on road trips... these are the things that nobody talks about.
I was replying to someone that replied to my previous post with some questions. The fact that my answer aggravates you enough to jump in with a condescending post makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. I'll get to analyzing the per diem costs when I get a chance.... We all know you will be right here to read it.
I'm just saying that going into an extended deep dive TED talk on sports insurance premiums is a little egregious, and actually isn't as big of a factor when it comes to offering medium to long term length contracts to athletes as you may think it is. Its SOP for all offered contracts. If you don't think they should offer Ohtani a large deal due to injury risk, that's fine... but he's going to get it from somebody and nobody will be criticizing said team for this risk.
The concern with a long-term Ohtani contract isn't about missing seasons and needing insurance. It's that wear and tear might make him not effective in the back half of the contract. People criticized the Cole and Correa/Tatis/Lindor/etc deals as absurdly long and too high risk. Ohtani is going to play more than any of those guys every year - something that no modern baseball player has done. What does he look like in 3 or 4 years? The benefit is you might get the best player in baseball at a substantial discount. The negative is that you might get a huge chunk of his contract where he's nothing like the best player in baseball and probably won't be a two-way player in the latter part of his contract either.
The post I was responding to was talking about how Crane could view an Ohtani deal as a smart business decision because of increased revenue and could increase the value of the franchise. My main point is the contract is guaranteed. The increased revenue is not a guarantee and was pointing out the potential downside. I used injury risk as an example of something that could derail an increase in revenue. Drop off in performance is another potential risk to that revenue that Major brought up just now. I got into the weeds on the insurance because a lot of people say well isn't the contract insured for the injury risk? I had talked to someone that had knowledge of the industry a couple months ago and I also saw a couple articles confirming what i was told. i thought it was interesting to actually know what the insurance does and does not cover. One article I read said a lot of these contracts are not being insured. I would love to have Ohtani. I laid out my opinion why I don't believe it will happen. As soon as Crane starts acting like Steve Cohen or Peter Seidler my analysis of the luxury tax leading up to the deadline in 2021 or the risk factors that are a big part of why Crane hasn't done a long term deal won't be relevant anymore.
All contracts are guaranteed in baseball. As far as what a global presence could (or couldn’t do) for franchise values/revenues… do you think the Rockets had a heightened revenue stream with Yao vs. without him? Do you think it impacted the value of the franchise? I do know they had marketing and business opportunities that they would never have sniffed without him. All of this certainly goes beyond insurance premiums but I don’t think the Ohtani effect is negligible/insignificant on a downstream level. Crane doesn’t have to act like the two biggest spenders in baseball, but fiscally responsible teams like the Cardinals and Braves also give out long term deals and don’t seem to be permanently hindered with premiums because of it….
Even the Rays handed out an 11 year contract. The excuses are running out. Franco was in his early 20s but if one of the smallest market teams can do it..... it is going to be hard watching guys like Tucker walk. Of course. The post I was responding to pointed out the potential upside and asked me about it. I was just using injury/insurance as an example of the potential downside. Insurance issues are just one factor. Crane refusing to extend someone for a decade and into their 40s is the bigger hurdle regarding Ohtani.
Agreed. Same with Seattle. Granted, he still gets the ultimate benefit of the doubt given the results he’s gotten… but its clear that mostly all teams can afford at least one mega long term deal (if not 2) and the Astros either don’t feel they have the player worth it, or they just have no interest in giving one at any point. I would like them to get a little closer to the tax… in a responsible way, not a throw money to throw money around (i.e. overpay guys) way. Anyways, my bad with the condescending tone earlier… I just didn’t want to have to discuss insurance premiums (on top of everything else) as to why Crane/Astros do what they do…
The flipside is that the Rays' 11 year contract comes out to like $16MM / yr. That's very different than an 11 yr contract at $50MM/yr and it's for a guy who was 8 years younger. His deal ends at age 31, whereas Ohtani's starts at age 29. Way lower production risk late in the contract and in the worst case, much easier of a contract to eat if needed.
