Likely less, considering Soto still had another two years on his contract. I imagine what the Astros planned on giving up for Harper in 2018 + 50%.
Expected: Kyle Tucker breaking out (177 OPS+) and leading the team in WAR (0.8 through 19 games, on pace for nearly 7.0 bWAR). Unexpected: Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon would be second and third in WAR on the team. Also Bryan Abreu leading all Astros pitchers in bWAR
I honestly think we are a good spot for ohtani. he can be more of a star for us than he could for other teams in LA or NY . Idk if that matters to him . Also , no state income tax . And with that I bet advertising money is better too . so who knows . Rangers have blown their load I think . We have been banking . Crane might buck up . Who knows .
I think Ohtani will bring back 2 MLB Top 50 prospects (or equivalent young big leaguers). I don’t think Houston has those type of prospects. Maybe if Drew Gilbert blows up he can be a headliner packaged with 2-3 other lesser (but still good) prospects like Whitley, Clifford, and Leon. Only other possibility would be if the Angels try to use Ohtani to shed Rendon’s bad contract. Which I consider extremely unlikely.
I’d rather she’s Rendons bad contract than get prospects. I can’t fathom 2 top 50 guys or MLB ready equivalent for 2 months with Ohtani. Baseball is such a crap shoot in the playoffs that’s too big a risk for my way of thinking. You are talking about 150M in surplus value going out and for what- a 1.5% bump in your WS winnings odds? Something like that? Which has I know a 1.5% bump in your World Series odds means adding 30 or 35% to most teams World Series odds (going from say 8.5% chance to a 10 or 10.5% chance) but you are still talking 90% chance it ends in disappointment and you are out 13.5 combined years of high level play if you properly mess with your prospects service time.
Any talk of trading Hunter Brown makes my head explode. Saw it all offseason. Call my crazy, dgaf, but I'm not trading Hunter Brown for damn near anything. Elite prospect with all those years of the control and cheap labor. Pass on these stupid, stupid trades.
First, Crane was NOT willing to go over $40M/yr for JV. Second, he has not shown a willingness to tie up that much of his payroll to an individual player or give a long term commitment with an opt out. It's all downside risk without the payoff of upside potential.
Yep. Feel the same way about Whitley. That’s because I know he’s devalued and you aren’t getting a STUD for him he’s a secondary or tertiary piece for a rental or a main piece for a JAG or a good player on too big a contract (think Salvy Perez). Nothing more valuable than a cheap TOR Hammer). Whitley might not have proven he’s that yet but he’s well on his way despite what @Nook’s dipshit prospector friend that for some treason is paid to be a national guy and be wrong about every single Astro says.
I love Brown. That said, fans always value their team's prospects highly and above other team's. It's simple: Ohtani is going to cost a king's ransom. It's ridiculous to say, " let's trade for him but not give up anything." Maybe 3 months from now some guys have breakouts and improve their stock, but as of now Brown is the only guy in the organization that could be used to outbid other teams. Sucks but that's reality. Ohtani would be nice but PASS.
I think the most likely scenario is a team that thinks they have a great shot at signing him making the trade and hoping the extra 2 months gives them a chance to sell him on their location or wrap up a deal before free agency.
Like every player, It all boils down to COST. I do not see him as anything more than a two month rental, so I would not give up the future for him, as much as I'd like to see him in a Randy Johnson/Beltran Role.
But that’s the thing. Ohtani is nice but pass. I’m not saying let’s trade for him. I’ll take 7 years of brown over this ohtani rental
For the Astros YES. And likely for most teams. But it's not that simple. If a team has not won in a long time and this looks like an opportunity then it may be worth the risk. For example: The Diamondbacks have not won a WS since 2001 and have mostly been irrelevant. They play in a division where they will always be against the Dodgers and Giants and the Padres have tons of young talent. They are in first place. If that holds till the trade deadline. That kind of a trade may make sense to them because this may be the one year they have a reasonable chance. That doesn't make sense for the Astros. And doesn't fit the Astros current philosophy or needs. FWIW: Johnson 4.3 bWAR for Halama (6.3), Garcia (20.3), Guillen (13.6) Is a perfect example. It was a great move then, may not be a great move now.
The Astros won the 2017 and 2022 World Series built primarily on guys that they acquired as amateurs or as prospects. I think it would take the Angel's valuing quality highly for the Astros to get Ohtani. I think fans may over rate the performance of individual prospects (even a lot of Top 100 prospects bust), but overall, I think fans under rate the value of having a home grown player under control and using the cost savings to acquire higher priced veterans.
That is easily 4x the WAR that I thought the Astros were giving up. I suspect that Luhnow does not make that trade, but I was very happy that the Astros did, back in the day. Damn, Freddy Garcia. Have yourself a career.
I think, it is a bit different for a franchise that has never won a WS, or is in a decades-long drought, than for someone like us that has won two in the last six years. For us, we know we can win and sustain the success, so why mess with that? Whereas if you're in a, say, Cleveland-length drought, you get very desperate, the fanbase is very impatient and they will take greater risks. Just how I see it. Not giving up 6 years of Brown for three months of Ohtani. If it was 5 years of Brown vs 1.5 years of Ohtani I would think differently, and 4 years of Brown vs 2.5 years of Ohtani I would do it. But not giving up Brown with the full clock of team control for a rental.
