OPS is not very useful as a tool to determine value or performance in the minors, and AAA may be the level it's least valuable. There are simply too many variables. K and BB rates are a much better barometer.
Kessingers stock had no where to go but up. He compares to Jack Mayfield in my opinion as a best case. Forrest Whitley is the only guy worth discussing at this point in Sugar Land.
I would have to add Solis and Lee to that. Leon and Dirden may still have a role to play before they are passed up and it would be nice to see a few plate appearances from Sandle while he is there.
This. We have big league pitchers now throwing 102-105 MPH at the high end........ and MORE impressively is that we have sinkers that are 98-100 MPH...
Yes, anyone striking out in 44% of their plate appearances is “overmatched”. Not sure how that’s controversial. Adolph has a BABIP of .500. That’s what’s artificially overinflating his ops along with getting hit by pitches.
The 8% HBP rate helps. Tbh, I don't really track that sort of thing very often. I tried to get a feel for whether or not this is true, but the pandemic made it hard to evaluate. Going back to the 2017 class, though, a number of players were top 20 round college hitters who got cut prior to playing in the 2019 season, such as Kyle Davis and Adrian Tovalin, but that class might have been uniquely bad. A 30% strikeout rate and 5 HRs for a college 3B in A ball isn't encouraging. The two triples and starting more at 2nd than 3rd so far has me holding out a little hope for a change in athleticism that might lend itself to more success. The fact that Williams has only played in half of Fayetteville's games might indicate that the Astros didn't really expect much from him.
Mayfield played parts of 4 seasons in the majors so it’s not like that would be a terrible outcome for Kessinger.
Just came here to ask what you think of Javier. Dude strikes ppl out, but if you are struggling to get through 5 innings because you throw 25 pitches an inning.. he has 2 no hitters that he needed the bullpen to help with. That can’t be your ace. Everyone likes him like an ace, but I would rather have a guy that regularly goes to 7 innings and gets ground balls.
I love Javier. I’m betting on him being a Cy Young guy. I’m a little concerned about the drop in his velo because the invisiball probably doesn’t work at 93 the way it does at 95, but hopefully it’s a beginning of the year thing. Basically last year you saw the best versions of Framber and Javier down the stretch and as great as Framber was (and he was great) if I have a playoff game to win it’s Javier every single time. If Frambers going to pitch 30 or 40 more innings than Javier over the course of the year at near cy young level he’s a more valuable regular season guy.
https://theathletic.com/4422049/202...es-forrest-whitley-casey-schmitt-nolan-jones/ Forrest Whitley, Houston Astros, RHP Team: Triple-A Sugar Land Age: 25 Stats: 2 starts, 8 IP, 1.13 ERA, 11 K, 3 BB Scout says: Forrest Whitley looks better than he has the last couple of years. People were surprised he was the 30th-ranked prospect in the Houston organization last year, but the guy still has plus stuff. Pitchability is always going to be a concern, but he’s throwing strikes so far. The stuff isn’t amazing, but it’s still plus across the board. He was up to 96-97 mph when I saw him, not 99-100 mph like he threw before. But plus breaking balls and a good changeup. He has the potential for plus command. The delivery is very simple now. I’ve seen some meltdowns and underachieving in the past, so we’ll see. But he’s kind of a forgotten guy who still has a chance to be a No. 2 or No. 3.
When did Forrest ever throw 100 in a game? Maybe he touched it during a training session or something but I remember him always sitting mid-90s. This guy sounds full of ****.
Can’t believe DeGrom is on the shelf for the Rangers. They signed an iron man and that’s what they got? On a serious level I’d have done that deal if I was then all day long. One trip to the playoffs in a year where he has a huge year probably makes the deal worth it from their perspective but damn, not off to a good start so far.
There is a lot to unpack here. So, back in 1997 he could touch 97 mph but mostly sat around 92-94. A few years ago his fastball sat 96-98 MPH and in AAA it did reach 100 MPH a few times. Last year even, he was hitting 98 mph. So technically it is possible that they saw Whitley hit 100 MPH in a game, especially with how much variance there is in some guns. HOWEVER - currently the issue isn't that Whitley cannot throw 98-100 MPH, he can but the Astros do not want him to. When his fastball is around 100 MPH he loses some shape and hop that he has when he is 95-97 MPH. One of the things that the Astros did with Whitley over the last 9 months is simplify his delivery and taught him not to pitch like a closer, where every pitch is maximum effort. I did not get to see any tape on Whitley's last start, but from people I trust and know pitching well, I have been told it was very good. That his fastball was still sitting in the upper 90's, his velocity did not drop like in the past and that he had clean and repeatable mechanics.
I'd much rather have the starter that helps my team finish the game with the fewest runs allowed. The way Javier pitched last year, there were probably about 20 pitchers that did that better over the season. So last year, I'd say he pitched like an ace when he pitched, but was a hair short on the innings to be as valuable as an ace. For how he pitched last season, he's an ace if he pitches one more inning once every two to three starts. Basically, all the pitchers better than him were comparable/close in quality with more innings. Most of them were not GB pitchers.
There is a lot to unpack here. So, back in 1997 he could touch 97 mph but mostly sat around 92-94. A few years ago his fastball sat 96-98 MPH and in AAA it did reach 100 MPH a few times. Last year even, he was hitting 98 mph. So technically it is possible that they saw Whitley hit 100 MPH in a game, especially with how much variance there is in some guns. HOWEVER - currently the issue isn't that Whitley cannot throw 98-100 MPH, he can but the Astros do not want him to. When his fastball is around 100 MPH he loses some shape and hop that he has when he is 95-97 MPH. One of the things that the Astros did with Whitley over the last 9 months is simplify his delivery and taught him not to pitch like a closer, where every pitch is maximum effort. I did not get to see any tape on Whitley's last start, but from people I trust and know pitching well, I have been told it was very good. That his fastball was still sitting in the upper 90's, his velocity did not drop like in the past and that he had clean and repeatable mechanics. He has a long way to go, and with the injuries, he no longer throws 5 different pitches all with the same degree of movement as 6 years ago - but his last outing was the most positive performance from him in at least 3-4 years.
You can definitely see a major change/simplification to his delivery this season, which looks much more comfortable in terms of effort. The vertical release point on his pitches also looks lower (not from a lower slot but from more elbow bend) than in the past, although that's hard to tell simply from video.
Hypothetically, let’s say Whitley stays on this current path and gets called up this year, he would only be a FA in 2029 correct? If he becomes an ace or even a 2-3 guy that would be great for the rotation. Javier, Whitley, Brown is quite the rotation. Framber will be around for another 3 at least as well. If the Astros can add another Tor SP they would set for the next 3-5 years. Maybe we trade from a position of strength or even pay market value for one. This all assumes Whitley has turned it around
Lol, slow down. Whitley is the one guy you should not put the cart before the horse. Just a reminder for everyone, his innings over the last four seasons: 2022: 40ip 2021: 0 2020: 0 2019: 59.2ip The guy has the talent, but step #1 is staying healthy and throwing 80-100ip this year and 120-150ip next year. unless they decide to make him a bullpen weapon. EDIT* to answer the question posed: it depends on when they call him up. if they call him up early enough to get credit for a year of service time in '23, then he'll be an FA after the '28 season. If they call him up July or later, he'll be an FA after the '29 season.
Yep. Best case for Whitley is 70-80 dominant, healthy AAA innings over 15-20 starts thru July, then a callup to be used in single inning relief from August thru the playoffs, opening the door for him to be in next years opening day rotation with only minor innings limits.
