Potential teams - Jets / Rams potentially to groom a post Rodgers / Stafford succession plan - Washington, Falcons, Green Bay Tampa if Howell or Ridder or Love or Trask ***** the bed - Tennessee/Las Vegas if they don’t draft one this year - Detroit if Goff steps backwards
By the way... Arizona did this in 2019. They drafted Rosen 10th in 2018 and then the next year drafted Kyler Murray 1st overall.
Dude if we get the first pick next year it has to be Caleb or one of the other qbs, mostly like Caleb though at 1.1. No other answer
Here’s the disconnect: you think trading back, and using ALL 3 FIRST round picks on Maye or Williams is less risky and a better use of picks than Bryce Young at # 2 and having all the rest of our picks including 2 firsts next year. let’s say you use #2 on Bryce, he gets hurt because he’s small and you still have all other picks. Or you go your way and use 3 first rounders on Williams or Maye and they bust. Which one sets your team back more? To clarify, I don’t want to know which has a higher chance of happening, I just want to know which sets the team back more, honestly.
I don't see enough sure things at positions of need to bypass Stroud at #2. Will Anderson, for example, really struggled against Darnell Wright from Tennessee. Maybe he is a little undersized. Maybe Alabama's vaunted coaching has already maximized his potential. Jalen Carter has maturity issues that teams should take seriously. Tyree Wilson, Will Levis, or Anthony Richardson have just not had the college production to pick at # 2, imo. If there was a good enough offer, I would think about trading out of the #2 spot, but I don't see who would be willing to do that.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/17/commanders-snyder-nfl-draft-rumors-peter-king-fmia/ ∙Bryce Young is (no pun intended) head-and-shoulders in the lead to be the first pick in the draft. ∙Tyree Wilson, the Texas Tech pass-rusher, might be in competition with Alabama’s Will Anderson for the top defensive prospect on Houston’s draft board, and that could mean something if the Texans aren’t quite as smitten with C.J. Stroud as Mock Draft World thinks. ∙Jalen Carter has two visits to top-10 teams left before Wednesday’s deadline for players to make pre-draft visits to teams. That’s what agent Drew Rosenhaus told me Saturday. I’ll tell you the team that is the most perfect fit for Carter in the NFL: the Pittsburgh Steelers, who’d have to trade up from 17 to get him. ∙Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a left hamstring injury last year. He had a gigantic 2021 season at Ohio State, then played only 60 snaps in 2022, and I’m hearing some reticence about taking a guy 12th or 18th in the first round when, in a 4.5-month season, he managed to play the equivalent of one football game with a hamstring injury. ∙This might sound crazy, but I’m not sure how many teams will be aggressive in trying to move up for C.J. Stroud if Bryce Young goes first to Carolina. ∙All the anti-Bijan-Robinson-in-the-first-round folks, hear this: There’s this reticence to pick a running back in the first round because he might not be around for a second contract. Fact is, most first-round picks don’t sign second contracts. Per overthecap.com, 31 percent of first-round picks from 2011-’14 signed second contracts with teams, and well under half the players from 2011 to 2019 (the last year we’d be able to figure if first-rounders got second contracts) re-signed. ∙One other Bijanism. His college coach, Steve Sarkisian, told me Robinson could be a slot receiver, regularly, in the NFL. I’ve got the clip to convince you. “I probably made a couple of receivers on our team mad last season,” Sarkisian said, “but he had the best hands on our team.” ∙This doesn’t mean anything on the surface, because the way “reporting” works this time of year, things that make sense get repeated and repeated and repeated and it all becomes one giant Insider Echo Chamber. But I didn’t hear anyone, in calls Friday through Sunday, who thinks the first pick won’t be Bryce Young. He may not be. I’m just telling you what’s out there. ∙I will not be surprised if, in the Edge category, Tyree Wilson is picked ahead of Will Anderson. I particularly will not be surprised if Houston—whether at two or through a trade-down if the Texans don’t take a quarterback—takes Wilson over Anderson. “DeMeco Ryans could look at Wilson after his year in San Francisco and say, ‘I got my Nick Bosa,’” said someone in the league who knows Ryans. ∙One coach with a pick in the top 10: “Wilson will be a better pro than Anderson.” ∙I’m like you. I hear the Houston’s souring on Stroud stuff, and I just can’t believe the Texans wouldn’t take a quarterback high in this draft. How would Cal McNair answer to his disaffected season-ticketholders if, after passing on a quarterback with the third and 15th picks in the first round last year, he passes on a quarterback at number two this year? It’s the job of coaches to get the best out of players, and there’s certainly enough potential in C.J. Stroud—should he be there for Houston at two—for the Texans’ coaches to make a good NFL QB out of him. ∙An increasing number of people around the league think Jalen Carter has done enough in his visits to not sink like a stone on draft night. (More on Carter in my next section.) It’s become almost a cliché, how many team officials think the Seahawks will take Carter with the fifth overall pick. ∙Best rumor of the week: Steelers trading up from 17 to nine if Carter’s there. There could not be a more perfect coach for Carter than Mike Tomlin. ∙Carolina owner David Tepper has not been overbearing in the QB-search process. I can hear it now: You’re giving us a sanitized version of this to get on Tepper’s good side. Uh, I’ve never met the man. I could care less about buttering up David Tepper. I’m just telling you the real stuff. ∙Peter Skoronski’s an interesting case. The Northwestern tackle has the dreaded short-arm plague, and two teams in the top 10 see him now as a guard. So what? Guard Chris Lindstrom got drafted 14th by the Falcons in 2019, and he’s now a cornerstone player in Atlanta. Ditto Zack Martin (16th) in Dallas, and with a slightly smaller exclamation point, Quenton Nelson (sixth) in Indy. All got second contracts. If Skoronski’s a great guard, getting picked ninth or 12th or 15th is absolutely fine. ∙This is not an overriding negative on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, an excellent receiver prospect. But the Ohio State football season was five months long last year, including practice, and Smith-Njigba got a left hamstring injury early, and he played 60 snaps total in three games, and never got on the field in the last 10 weeks. He runs a 4.48 40-. I’m not the only one wondering: How is Jaxon Smith-Njigba the top-rated receiver on so many boards with 10 days to go? ∙Former QB Lists of the Week. I asked the very opinionated Chris Simms of NBC Sports and Dan Orlovsky of ESPN, both former NFL quarterbacks, for their top five at the position. Simms has gained notoriety in the past few years for loving unfamous guys entering the draft, and he’s not as crazy this year, but a couple of his picks are notable. What’s interesting to me: Both like Hendon Hooker more than the market—Simms in particular—and one thinks C.J. Stroud is Burrow-like while the other has cooled on him a bit. And Simms, the one who brought you Kellen Mond and Matt Corral, has another one you’ll have to look up: UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Hmm. Purdy-like in this way—Thompson-Robinson started 48 college games. Simms’ Top Five QBs: 1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State. “To me, Stroud was the offense at Ohio State. Bryce Young ran the offense at Alabama. Stroud’s the best pure pocket passer in the draft. He’s big, he can make any type of throw you want, he’s got a great ability to process information. He’s as good as I’ve seen at making all the throws since Joe Burrow.” 2. Bryce Young, Alabama. “The natural. He’s slick. I mean, there’s a lot to like. Like Stroud, the processing information there is really good. He’s got a lot of wow releases, but there’s not a lot of wow throws. But he is a phenomenal, quick athlete. He can make people miss. He can throw off different platforms. Of course I worry about his size.” 3. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee. “This is a pure pocket-passing quarterback. Man, nobody is better in the draft than Hooker playing from the pocket. People around him, hanging on him, and he can throw a 20-yard incut or a 20-yard comeback. You’re like, ‘Man, he couldn’t even step into that, and wow, what a throw.’ His ability to move is being way underrated.” 4. Anthony Richardson, Florida. “How can you not love his potential? I don’t love the comparison to Josh Allen, because Josh wasn’t this raw. But we’ve never seen anything like Richardson. His arm is the most explosive arm in the draft. His running is real. Yeah, there’s a lot to work on from the quarterback aspect. I hear some people say, ‘He needs to sit a year.’ It’s the exact opposite. This is Trey Lance. He’s gotta play; he hasn’t played enough. You gotta start him right away if you draft him.” 5 (tie). Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA; Will Levis, Kentucky. “Dorian Thompson-Robinson might be the most underrated prospect in the entire draft. Bigger than Bryce Young (Thompson-Robinson is 6-1 ½), better arm than Bryce Young. A little frail, but I think he’s ready to play right now. With Levis, the word for me is inconsistency—in everything. Decision-making, mechanics, quality of throw. I don’t see a guy with a natural feel for the position.”
Orlovsky’s Top Five: 1. Bryce Young. “I think he’s got a feel for football like Steph Curry’s got for basketball. My favorite quality about him: In moments of panic, he doesn’t panic with the football. From decision made to ball coming out, it’s so sudden, but he doesn’t force the ball. His size … who were the last quarterbacks to have their careers derailed by injury? Carson Wentz. Andrew Luck. Cam Newton. They’re mountain men. Bryce’s size does nothing to impact his ability to play.” 2. Anthony Richardson. “This is a flip for me over the past couple weeks, Richardson over Stroud. He’s got rare, rare athleticism, size and arm talent. Very unique combination. Oftentimes we’ll get two out of three. One out of three. He’s got all three. Really good in the play action game and the RPO game.” 3. C.J. Stroud. “C.J. was number two for me for a while. He has a tremendous pre-snap plan. This kid’s very good at understanding tells of a defense and what’s the problem with this play and how to fix it. Elite ball placement. Rhythm and timing might be the flaws. When he’s off rhythm, he’s not the same player. You could say that about a lot of guys, but C.J. guides the ball at times.” 4. Will Levis. “Super tight release, very similar to Stafford. Big, strong-armed, tough dude. Played his best football in the toughest moments in games, third downs. But he’s an incredibly difficult evaluation. By far the worst protection that any quarterback had to deal with this year, by far the worst skill group. So it’s tough to come to a conclusion on him.” 5. Hendon Hooker. “I love the adversity that he’s faced, the maturity that he’s acquired. He’s a big, athletic, touch thrower who also can drive the football. But naturally he’s a touch thrower by nature. With the designed runs, I don’t think he’s a crazy creator, but he can run when he needs to. He had to think very quickly in their offense this year.” ∙ The Case for Bijan I seem to be in the minority on this: I don’t think teams, particularly teams that are in contention and would be significantly improved with a great offensive weapon, should be overly concerned with whether a rookie will be around long enough to sign a second contract. That’s partially because the majority of first-round picks do not sign second contracts with teams anyway. From 2011 to 2014, in fact, per overthecap.com, only 38 percent of the top 10 picks signed second deals with teams, and just one-third of those picked 11 through 20 re-signed with teams. That brings me to Robinson, the talented Texas back. He’s a great runner, first. But watch this clip (this link is set to begin right at 3:00, on the exact play I want you to see) of a deep route run out of the slot by Robinson to see his versatility and hands—and to see why his college coach, Steve Sarkisian, thinks Robinson could be a full-time receiver if that’s how a team wanted to use him. My point: If you only had Robinson for five years—four years plus exercising the fifth-year option as a first-round pick—and he played behind the kind of offensive line in, say, Philadelphia, are you telling me he wouldn’t be worth the pick? Not to fixate on Philly, but two of the last four top picks (Jalen Reagor, Andre Dillard) didn’t work out anyway. The average first-contract cap number for Robinson in Philadelphia would be $5.5 million. But let’s not stick to Philly. Go to mid-round, and pick 18, where Detroit would certainly be in contention to draft Robinson. His cap number in the first four years as the 18th pick: $2.8 million, $3.5 million, $4.2 million, $4.8 million … between 1 and 3 percent of your cap each year. I asked Sarkisian if he thought Robinson was an exception to the rule about taking running backs high in the draft. “I definitely think he is,” he said. “Bijan is not your typical first- or second-down back. He’s not your typical third-down back. He is an every-down back who can run between the tackles, can make people miss on the perimeter, is extremely difficult to get on the ground in space, and can run routes like receivers. He can catch the ball like a receiver. I think the game of the NFL is really fit for his skill set, maybe to some degree a little better than college quite frankly.” I asked him which teams have been sniffing around Robinson in pre-draft phone calls. “It’s so hard to gauge because, for instance, I was at Alabama, and I recruited Bryce Young and coached him for a year, so there are questions about Alabama guys,” Sarkisian said. “But you gotta remember: Lots of teams never let you know what they’re thinking. I was with Al Davis in Oakland for a year, and he never called the people he knew he was going to draft.”
If I'm the Texans and Bryce goes one, I think I say screw it and draft Richardson at two. This opinion will change many times in the next two weeks.
“I think the best way to describe Bryce, to me he’s Steph Curry on grass,” Sarkisian said. “That was what everybody said about Steph Curry going into the NBA: Was he gonna be big enough? Could he really shoot that in the NBA? And I think Steph has proven that.” Sarkisian went on to praise many aspects of Young’s game, including his football IQ, throwing with anticipation and pocket feel. The Texas coach believes all of this outweighs the risks of Young’s smaller stature. “In the end, I think Bryce has got a great career ahead of him,” Sarkisian said. “Naturally, I think he has to take care of his body throughout the offseason throughout the in-season…but I think when that guy walks in the door, he’s gonna step in that huddle and have great command.”
Okay so in your scenario. Houston stays where they are and pick Bryce and someone at 12. Bryce gets hurt. So you effectively now have just 1st rounder from this draft, the 12th. Now in my scenario you trade back to 5,6,7. Doesn't matter the compensation (It does, but not for this conversation) as long as you get a 1st for next year. So now you have Anderson or Tyree, plus number 12, plus whatever else you got for trading. Now you go into next year with 3 first rounders. Remember, only one of those was your original draft pick. One you got for Watson. One you got to trade back and get Anderson or Tyree. So the only first rounder it is truly costing is the one you got for Watson. Now Bryce may not even be there at 2, so this decision is even easier then. I'm trading back. Hell I'm not even adverse to taking a QB at the trade back spot with the additional capital gained.
You know we agree on a lot outside of the D and D. I don't want AR15 at 2. He is huge risk/reward prospect. His ceiling is much higher than Stroud. The issue is people are seeing Stroud right now closer to his ceiling than Richardson is. Stroud is the more NFL prospect right now. Richardson will more than likely be better in 2 years.
Peter is a moron. What QBs were worth taking last year in the draft? One first round qb last year and it was Pickett. The titans already want to move on from Malik Willis lol. also what does that say about Stroud if other teams won’t stumble over themselves to trade up for him if he’s falling?
Love this, but this isn't the year to be picking a wr that high. BTW, JSN reminds me of Edelman, but those hamstring issues really worry me. Otherwise he would be worth 1-12. I would pick Bijan at 1-12. Healthy star level player.
Love this, but this isn't the year to be picking a wr that high. BTW, JSN reminds me of Edelman, but those hamstring issues really worry me. Otherwise he would be worth 1-12. I would pick Bijan at 1-12. Healthy star level player.
