Wemby or bust, trade the picks if we don't get Wemby.

If you think that the broke dick Scoot we have now is as good as Scott Henderson will be, just stop watching basketball.

 

rolling a particular side of a 6 sided die is about 16.5 percent . Not too far off from 14

so say you really need to roll a 1 and you have a die

 

agreed that we could likely get 3 cam Johnson types this summer rather than a max FA... however because of the over 38 rule the Sixers can't offer harden the 5th year, only 4 with the same max as Houston. they can offer higher annual increments, but with state taxes its a wash. even so, point taken that most likely we get high end starters but not stars with cap space.

the difference between our plans is I'd rather draft in the top 7 again and hope 1-2 of jalen, jabari, '23 pick turns into a star on a cost controlled rookie deal for 4 years plus an affordable max extension for another 4 years, then use the cap space for veterans who can up our talent level but also slide into the support role as our stars emerge. I'm not as fond of fast forwarding the timeline for Jaylen Brown who's 26, about to sign a 4-5 year deal, at the end of which he will be on the decline and likely would not outperform his next contract. it would shorten our window to about 4 years before we can't afford to stay together or decline into irrelevancy again. we would need 2-3 Jaylen Brown type trades to contend right now within that 4 year window. I don't think tanking for 3 years just to contend for 4 is worth it, and that's IF you can even assemble a contender through 2-3 Jaylen Brown type trades.

stay the course, one more pick, invest in player development (Atkinson, nurse etc...) and you'll hopefully have a pair of stars, an 8 year window of affordability, plus cap space for a great supporting cast of veterans. just a difference of strategies.

 

The probability that someone you meet is born on the same day of the week as you. It is 1/7, about 14.3%.

but I don’t think examples help. I taught probability and statistics at every level and generally people’s don’t have any intuition about probability.

 

if we get #3-6 im trading that pick + some of our BK picks for Bridges.

It would be too hard for Brooklyn to refuse as they will be able to take back their future and go full tank mode.

 

Seriously? No

..... it's Bill Simmons.

 

I don't believe Simmons is really an insider with any NBA team

He's pretty much just a talking head

 

Durant and Kyrie are the obvious ones. Both agreed to sign with Brooklyn in free agency.

They ended up turning Durant into a sign and trade but that was done just because it benefitted both teams. GS had Brooklyn include a sign and traded D'Angelo Russell in the deal and they gave Brooklyn a first round pick for agreeing to do the deal. If GS didn't agree to send a 1st round pick to Brooklyn, then Durant just outright signs with the Nets.

Another recent example would be Lebron James leaving Cleveland to sign with the Lakers.

EDIT: Here's another one - Kawhi outright signed with the Clippers.

ANOTHER EDIT: even more! -
Chandler Parsons to Dallas
Dwight Howard to Houston
LeMarcus Aldridge to SAS
Jimmy Butler to Miami
Lebron back to CLE (from MIA)
Lebron to MIA (from CLE)
Durant from OKC to GS
CP3 to Clippers
Ray Allen to Boston

Harden already took a paycut to help out Philly. He's only making $33m this year. Houston could easily pay him that if they wanted. If you're referring to Philly being able to offer him more money on a future contract, it's not as much as you'd think due to the 38 and over rule. Because of the over 38 rule, Philly isn't allowed to give Harden more than a 4 year deal. Houston could offer the same exact salary. The only advantage that Philly has is that they can offer 8% raises between each season of the deal and Houston can only offer 5%.

BTW even though I think that Harden would do wonders for the Rockets, I still wouldn't tie up that much salary for him as by the time the Rockets are ready to content he'll be too old.

 

It's all coming from John Granato.

The story is close to two weeks old, and made it's way to Celtic fan sites...... which Simmons follows.

I'll gladly eat crow if the Rockets get Jaylen Brown, but it won't be because Bill Simmons decided to repeat the rumor.

 

If this is the scenario that plays out, and the rockets are ready to contend when harden reaches that too old point of his career then he did his job while being here. Bc the point of Harden isn't being brought here to contend anytime soon but to be the significant bridge for these kids that hopefully becomes being playoff relevant 2-3 years from now and being competitive

 

Harden makes teammates better, no question about it. Right now we have a ton of cap space, good draft capital and some young talent. Over the next couple of years we have the chance to use those assets to acquire significant assets to help us eventually become a contender again.

I would prefer to not tie up 40+ million in Harden so that we'd retain more cap flexibility to acquire guys that will help us in the long run. That's my preference though.

The downside to having several high picks is that at the end of their rookie deals we're going to have to pay them big bucks. That limits our window for acquiring players to go with our young guys. I'd love to get Harden back but not at the cost of losing $40M in cap space. Again, that's just my preference.