A 750 ops makes Dubon a star level player. With his defensive profile that puts him a tier that in 2021 would have included Willy Adames, Nico Hoerner, Tommy Edman, and Elvis Andrus, all of whom were worth 3+ fwar. I don’t expect that but I do think there is reason to believe he has sustained improvement and ends up as a very high quality bench player.
Chas's defensive profile in CF is basically equivalent to Dubon's defensive profile at 2B. Chas is a career 0.750 OPS hitter. I don't consider Chas a star though he's averaged well over 3 fWAR per full-time season PAs.
Dubon has a 19% FB rate this season compared to a career average of 38%. I could see him settling in the low 30s but there's no way he's going to maintain that low of a FB rate over the course of the season. Pitchers will adjust and will pitch him more up and in (don't know why anyone would ever pitch him away intentionally) to force him to put the ball in the air. I could see him returning to being a nearly league average bat which is fine given his role on the team, but I don't see anything beyond that.
In my limited time watching his AB's this season, it seems like batted balls that were previously weak grounders or fly balls are now solid singles. Don't think it's suddenly turned into doubles/HR power. His barrel rate has always been low and in the early going this year its 0%. Especially if he's topping the ball more, those aren't leaving the park. If he settles in the .715-.730 OPS range that's a wildly successful season for him.
Maton has lost a lot of velo so far this year (averaging 89 mph on his fastball) but his Stuff+ rating has actually slightly increased this year due to the performance of his sweeper. Have to think though not having a fastball is going to catch up with him eventually this season.
Hopefully its just a conditioning thing and it ticks up in the summer months. Losing 2mph on his FB would otherwise be a huge injury red flag.
All I want is a lineup of players who can hit and hitters who get into the line-up. Is that too much to ask?
Just to say, I don't hate Maldy. I only think he's gotten old, and he's lost a lot of offensive and defensive value the past 2 seasons. I was never a big fan in the sense that I thought he was a star catcher, but I wasn't a part of the trade the top 2 prospects for a star catcher to replace him either. I don't know if the Astros replace him this season, but I don't expect him to be back next unless he signs for $2M or less. I will say he's being paid like he's not a very good catcher.
Was looking up his career numbers today and man are they awful. Lol. No surprise, I know. But still, they are pretty bad.
I can't possibly line up to put more money down on the under bet than any other bet in the world. When are you talking action on that?
I think it's a situation that sorts itself out over time. He's obviously towards the end of his career and won't be a full-time catcher next year if he plays at all. Think of this year as a catcher-slot rebuilding year. Maldy is just a place holder. Dana Brown needs time to evaluate what he has with Yainer and Korey Lee before making any moves.
Because he's not. And remember when he went on the market- there was no market with him- he signed that goofy deal in KC and then they couldn't wait to trade him away? Yeah- that's what the league thinks about him, and the league is likely right and the Astros are likely wrong. And that was 5 or 6 years ago. You could say- oh the Astros know something the league doesn't and Maldy blah blah blah but I'd point out that correlation isn't causation and that the Astros success is b/c Altuve and Bregman and Tucker and Alvarez are awesome and before that it was Springer and Correa that were awesome, and that their pitchers don't ever seem to miss him when they aren't throwing to him. Whoever described him as a blanky upthread was right- and that's all well and good when you have studs rampaging through the lineup to give away the out (outside of an occasional walk or HR- which- cool) but that presupposes you have a rolling ball of butcher knives in the top 5 or 6 spots and average competence in the other spots. Which we don't right now. But, we will still role him out there 80% of the time for "Reasons"
Cool. What's Brown evaluating with Yainer right now- how good he is at playing grabass? Picking splinters out of his ass? If he sucks and Koree Lee sucks and we end up riding Maldy's broken down husk to the finish line in the playoffs this year so be it. But it's time to get on with the evaluation of the other guy(s).
I am very optimistic about Kyle Tucker. April has always been his worst month. .610 OPS in 2021 .685 OPS in 2022. Even if he can keep it at .800 this year and have typical rest of the season he will be in the MVP conversation.
I think that Maldy needs to continue to start 65-75% of the games for a variety of reasons. That said, I think Diaz needs to start the other 25-35% and also get 1-2 starts at DH/1B per week and PH for Maldy in the 8th/9th inning of every game the Astros are tied or losing. Salazar is only an insurance policy incase a catcher is needed in game and Diaz is already playing. Brantley will be back in less than a month and the opportunity to get Diaz ABs gets much less. Dusty and the Astros are wasting this chance.
I think Yainer will get more reps at C as time goes on. Maldy is literally the only full-time catcher most of those guys knew before this season and they all love him. Gonna take some time ramp up Diaz's comfort with the rest of the rotation besides Hunter Brown. Think Diaz may be Hunter's full-time catcher now anyway. Playing Julks at DH over Diaz. That I don't get but maybe they just legit thinks Julks gives em a better chance to win.
One thing I have been disappointed/surprised by is Maldy’s reaction to competition. He appears to have not been on board with adding Contreras (either at last years deadline or this offseason), and he didn’t seem all that friendly to Vazquez. He has seemed to be open to mentoring Diaz and Lee but I don’t think he views them as a threat to his role as the primary catcher.
Yea... I was going to bring this up. He seemed like a pouty b**** on twitter over the Astros showing interest in Contreras. I'm done with the Maldy pitching whisperer narrative. Who caught the no hitter in the World Series? Vazquez. Who caught Brown's 7 innings against the Twins? Diaz. He needs to be a mentor, have a reduced role on the field, and not be a distraction if he isn't playing as much as he thinks he should.
