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2023 NFL Draft Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by gucci888, Sep 26, 2022.

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houston19519 Member

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Wattafan said: ↑

I bet if Texans take Anderson they'll move it.
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Yup.. I think multiple teams will. But I still think when it’s all said and done the Texans will draft Cj or Bryce at 2.

#5881 houston19519, Apr 10, 2023

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zeeshan2 Member

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#5882 zeeshan2, Apr 10, 2023
Last edited: Apr 10, 2023

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#5883 J.R., Apr 10, 2023

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#5884 houston19519, Apr 10, 2023

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J.R. said: ↑

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CJ/JSN combo

#5885 houston19519, Apr 10, 2023

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conquistador#11 Member

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houston19519 said: ↑

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It sounds like Drexler's "Ya Think?"
The question for BDN: Is Will Anderson a 'generational' talent to pass up on the nice little haul that the Cardinals will surely get from other teams calling from unknown numbers to get Stroud?

#5886 conquistador#11, Apr 10, 2023

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zeeshan2 Member

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The company recently looked at 27 starting quarterbacks. (Some of the older veterans like Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers had entered the league before S2 began testing in 2015 and there are no scores for them; Brees took the test while already playing in the NFL.) Of that group, 13 had a career passer rating above 90. The average S2 score of those players was the 91st percentile. Those with passer ratings below 90 had much lower test results.

“Those 14 guys, the average score was in the low 60s,” Ally said.
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https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/

#5887 zeeshan2, Apr 10, 2023
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houston19519 Member

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zeeshan2 said: ↑

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Goes against the narrative that Cj did horrible on his score

#5888 houston19519, Apr 10, 2023

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Smith-Njigba's older brother, Canaan Smith-Njigba, plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates of Major League Baseball

#5889 Astrodome, Apr 10, 2023

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houston19519 Member

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Think by the end of next week when all the visits are done will start to get this information confirmed by all the insiders about pick 1 and 2 already put in place by both teams. Then we can focus on what the Texans will do at 12

#5890 houston19519, Apr 10, 2023

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red5rocket Member

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houston19519 said: ↑

Think by the end of next week when all the visits are done will start to get this information confirmed by all the insiders about pick 1 and 2 already put in place by both teams. Then we can focus on what the Texans will do at 12
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While it’s excited to know who we’re getting, I hope we don’t know 100% who the panthers are taking until draft night.

#5891 red5rocket, Apr 10, 2023

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raining threes Member

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conquistador#11 said: ↑

Can't find it but John Harris had the best back up mock should Bryce be gone. No doubt I like it because it's what I would like.

1. Stroud
17. Nolan Smith, after trading with the Steelers for a 2nd (pick 49)
33. Hyatt
49. Jahmyr Gibbs

ok found it. Not feeling the Gibbs pick, but the other 3 are pretty gewd.

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I wouldn't pick Stroud but if they did give me

Smith
Washington
Schmitz or Mauch after trading back up to 35 or so.
Mingo
Mitchell
Kuntz

Weapons to give Stroud his best chance to be successful

#5892 raining threes, Apr 10, 2023

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#5893 red5rocket, Apr 10, 2023

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#5894 zeeshan2, Apr 10, 2023
Last edited: Apr 10, 2023
zeeshan2 Member

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Simms must be trolling

#5895 zeeshan2, Apr 10, 2023
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#5896 zeeshan2, Apr 10, 2023

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Omihall23 Member

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zeeshan2 said: ↑

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Would rather have the much better route runner in Jaxson Smith Njigba if they are close to the same speed.

#5897 Omihall23, Apr 10, 2023

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zeeshan2 Member

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Great read on Stroud

No, C.J. Stroud isn’t like these guys
First let’s set our baseline. Just on raw stats, Stroud is MUCH better than any of the previous Ohio State quarterbacks of the past decade, and with two full years of sample size. In 2021 he finished 2nd in completion percentage (71.9%) and 15th in yards per completion (14.0). The only pro prospects to post better Y/C numbers that season were Stetson Bennett (15.5), Hendon Hooker (14.3) and Sam Howell (14.1), but they weren’t even close to as accurate, posting completion percentages of 64.5, 68, and 62.5 respectively. No one combined Stroud’s uncanny accuracy with his big play ability.

In 2022, Stroud wasn’t quite as accurate, finishing 20th with a still-impressive 66.3, but he made up for it by soaring to 5th in yards per completion with 14.3. If you ignore Ohio State’s insane game at Northwestern, which took place in ridiculous gale force winds (seriously, go watch it), he improves to 68.3% and 14.6 yards per completion, which would have ranked 11th and 4th, respectively. The average completion percentage of those quarterbacks ahead of him (which includes Anthony Richardson) was 58.3.

We can do better still. In order to improve my QBOPS statistic, I’ve started to incorporate the quality of opposing defenses faced via the advanced metric SP+. I’ve managed to put together the SP+ defensive ranking for every defense every quarterback faced and I took an average to produce a Strength of Defense number. When discussing Stroud it’s common to bring up his outstanding game against Georgia, but that was hardly his only great performance against a great defense this season. Stroud actually faced the fourth-toughest defensive slate of any quarterback, bested only by Payton Thorne of Michigan State, Aidan O’Connell of Purdue, and Robby Ashford of Auburn. A quick look at Stroud’s game logs shows several impressive performances, and as good as that Georgia game was, his game against Iowa’s defense may be even better. This is also hardly the first time Stroud has excelled against an impressive defensive slate, as he faced the 19th toughest schedule in 2021. (Bryce Young faced the toughest schedule in 2021.)

One of the big knocks on Stroud is his work under pressure. He received a comically low PFF grade while under pressure, and there have been concerns about his playmaking ability when the pocket breaks down, as Ohio State generally provides outstanding, pro-quality lines. A quick look at Stroud’s tape reveals these criticisms to be accurate, but perhaps misguided.

Stroud was recruited as a dual-threat quarterback, and he does possess good mobility. The difference between Stroud and several of his contemporaries, including Bryce Young, is that Stroud primarily uses his athletic gifts inside the pocket to buy more time, step up, and deliver accurate throws. His mobility is outstanding, as is his feel for the rush as demonstrated by his pressure-to-sack rate (14.1%), but he plays more like Aaron Rodgers, while Bryce Young is more like Mahomes, as he is happy to leave the pocket and create huge plays on the move.

There are two additional mitigating factors for Stroud. The first is that Ohio State’s line was so good that many of the pressures he did face were blown protections, where no quarterback would have had a shot. When OSU blockers were where they were supposed to be, they generally didn’t allow pressure. These mistakes happened several times against Iowa, and after the first few series, Stroud adjusted and started buying more time outside the pocket. As a percentage of the pressures he faced, there was a higher number of those “interior line pressures” versus your normal outside pressure. He deals with the latter fine, while no one deals well with the former.

The second is that his “lack of playmaking outside the pocket” was clearly a choice, not a limitation. The Georgia game should put almost all of these concerns to bed, but even that ridiculous Northwestern game proved that while Stroud prefers to hang in the pocket and pass, he’s more than capable of scrambling and running when forced to do so. You could clearly see Stroud’s decision-making in action on those rare occasions when conventional passing wasn’t working; he was capable of completely changing his game. Stroud seemed to realize, on the biggest stage, that he had to introduce outside mobility as a weapon, and he did.

Most of Stroud’s reputation for wilting under pressure is based on the same flawed old-school thinking that blames Aaron Rodgers for the faults of Dom Capers. Generally speaking, he’s been quite good in big games, and he had the misfortune of playing at a time when Michigan actually managed to become a competent program again.

I mentioned before that Stroud’s accuracy numbers were slightly down from last season, but it’s worth noting that Ohio State doesn’t generate a lot of cheap, easy completions. Stroud’s ADOT (average depth of target) of 10.7 trails only Anthony Richardson and Hendon Hooker among those in the 2023 NFL Draft class, and he’s only accumulated 224 yards on screens. (Anthony Richardson benefitted from the fewest Screen Yards among this year’s prospects with 154, while Houston’s Clayton Tune led the class with 691.)

While Stroud has a ton of positives working for him, there is one big concern that shows up in the numbers. In addition to quantifying strength of defense faced, I’ve also started trying to account for the quality of a quarterbacks’ receivers using PFF season wide receiver grades, and calculating the average grade targeted per completion for each quarterback over the course of a season. You can read more about this metric, Wide Receiver Grade per Completion (WRGPC), and QwOBA+ here.

PFF’s college grades aren’t the most rigorously kept statistics, but over the course of a season they do a decent enough job at separating receiver value from quarterback value. It’s no surprise of course, that Ohio State frequently runs out elite receivers, but it is striking just how elite they are on a year to year basis. Marvin Harrison, JR., and Emeka Egbuka were among the true elites in college football, and it would be foolish to argue that they don’t make Stroud’s life easier. The average Stroud reception went to a pass-catcher with a near elite 75.99 PFF grade. Compare that with Bryce Young’s WRGPC of just 66.61, almost exactly FBS-average, and you can see that the difference is quite significant.

Here, it’s worth remembering that while Stroud had elite receivers this year, he had even more elite receivers last season, with a 77.55 WRGPC, and more importantly, he went from three elite targets to two. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the best statistical receiver in college football in 2021, and he got to play alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, two of the most impressive NFL rookies this season, both of whom had good cases to be rookie of the year. Harrison and Egbuka may end up being their equals, but even if they are, Smith-Njigba barely played in 2022. Tight End Cade Stover was the Buckeye’s third leading receiver, yet Stroud lost almost no efficiency from 2021 to 2022, he merely reshaped his game to fit new personnel. In 2021 he put up a QwOBA+ of 121, and followed it up in 2022 with a 118.

So, Stroud has faced a brutal group of defenses, remained incredibly accurate, pushed the ball down the field, and made tough plays. He rarely throws interceptions and plays from the pocket like a seasoned NFL professional. His play under pressure may be a question, but he put out an emphatic answer against Georgia and it’s pretty clear at this point that he can move when he needs to move. He’s a better thrower than Braxton Miller and JT Barrett, he’s a better and more mobile gunslinger than Dwayne Haskins, and he doesn’t get himself killed like Justin Fields. He’s a good athlete with an elite arm, and has consistently put on shows with his throws at the combine and at his pro day.

The last thing I’ll mention, which sold me far more than anything else here, is that he’s clearly a lightning quick processor on the field. If you watch Stroud’s tape, watch his head first. He races through his progressions, and nearly always chooses the correct read. Processing speed, and having the game slow down for you at the next level, is the single most important trait a player can have, and is among the most difficult to scout. So many college offenses (and a few NFL offenses) simply limit things to just a few reads, which can work in a limited context, but does a disservice to quarterback development. Stroud is disciplined in going through his reads, and any comparison’s to Joe Burrow on that front are completely warranted.

Stroud is easily my favorite quarterback prospect in this draft, and those poking holes in his game are looking too hard. He is the surest bet to help a team immediately, and well worth a top-5 pick, if not #1.
Click to expand...

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...quarterback-qbops-qwoba-statistics-ohio-state

#5898 zeeshan2, Apr 10, 2023

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conquistador#11 Member

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raining threes said: ↑

I wouldn't pick Stroud but if they did give me

Smith
Washington
Schmitz or Mauch after trading back up to 35 or so.
Mingo
Mitchell
Kuntz

Weapons to give Stroud his best chance to be successful
Click to expand...

This one would be more than ideal

#5899 conquistador#11, Apr 10, 2023

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Someone tell me why is it that multiple teams are trying to trade up for Anthony Richardson but Texan fans are in love with a 5th grader?

#5900 coachbadlee, Apr 10, 2023

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