[ClutchFans] Three predictions for an important Rockets offseason

Mmmh I just looked at Scoot Henderson's G League stats...why are they so bad? Even TyTy's are much better.

 

His stats aren't bad. They're well, well above league average.

As for why he didn't absolutely dominate, well I'd start with the fact that he was 18 years old. Kid should have been in high school, not leading a professional basketball team. He also had an injury-plagued season. (Just random stuff, knocked his head, twisted an ankle, nothing chronic.)

 

I'd be most concerned about the .427 FG % and .275 3-point %.

 

There's a lot of projection when it comes to the draft. You really can't just rely on stats. Even in baseball, which is much easier to assess statistically than basketball, even the most hardcore sabermetrics/stat nerds will admit that scouting plays an important role when it comes to analyzing prospects.

 

Understood, but competition in the NBA is harder - are there a lot of examples of players moving from the G League to the NBA and suddenly shooting significantly BETTER than before?

 

Many on here are too low the on the market value of some of our young pieces, particularly relative to players in the upcoming draft or future draft picks.

There's a novelty value (and yes an unknown upside) to draft picks. But most first round draft picks do not become even starter quality players, and with most players coming out at age 19 now, typically you have to wait at least 1-2 years after drafting them for them to stop being actively negative on the floor for you. That's a real cost.

Jalen or Sengun or Tari or one of the other ~20 players in the last couple drafts who have shown they will clearly be at least starter level? Those are really really valuable trade pieces. They're like the equivalent lottery pick except with a guaranteed non-bust outcome and you get to skip the years where they suck because they're 19 or 20.

 

Scoot is highly overrated lol. Some think he should be our pick if we’re 1st. I think most just go off the name and the twitter. I’ve watched him many times, he’s not who y’all think he is lol

 

The G-League has a mid-season tourney (called The Showcase), that is highly competitive, because a lot of scouts show up. For whatever reason, the GLeague stats keep them separate from the official regular season, despite them being Nov/Dec games against the same competition.

Scoot did tremendous in those games

The GLeague website has an option on player stats pages to select Showcase + Regular Season. Click that. I consider any GLeague games played during the NBA season to count for my scouting. Still not tremendous for Scoot, but better.

 

He's under the contract of a 16th pick and under our control for the next two seasons. Sengun improved across the board over last year and we would be fools to trade him now, in my opinion. I don't give a damn about polls. I have no idea how good the kid will end up being. Speculating that he'll be a "superstar" or should have gone #1 in his draft is ridiculous, in my opinion. What we've seen Sengun do this season, how he's improved over last year, despite having Silas as our head coach - those are the kinds of things I care about when it comes to Alpi Sengun.

I get that @Clutch would like to move him. I often agree with Clutch. I agreed that we should have taken Jabari Smith with our pick, said so at the time, and he's finally shown us why it was a smart move. I was high on Usman Garuba and still am. What until next season and we get a coach that knows what to do with the Spaniard and see what he can be, a terrific rotation piece, in my opinion. Heck, I was high on Tari Eason. Clutch was right about him, as well.

However, I ardently disagree with our fearless leader about Sengun. We need to continue to develop him and hopefully we'll get a head coach and a staff that'll know how to use him to our best advantage. I believe in our young Turk. I hope it's the Rockets that develop the 20 year old 5/4, not some other team, something I think we'd end up regretting. Time will tell.

 

I love you.

Even when you say what I posted is ridiculous .

 

Calm down, ATW.
;-)

 

Their rookie season? No, it's pretty rare to outpace your G-League/college stats. As they progress through their career? Yeah, tons of guys have developed their shot and gotten way better. Including some guys who couldn't really shoot the three in college, like Derrick Rose, who Scoot often draws comps to. I just have to trust the scouts and the eye test on this one. Scoot looks to have good shooting mechanics and like he can already hit his free throws plus middies and shorter-range shots. Who knows if he'll ever be a sharpshooter, but again, he's more in the mold of a D-Rose type of player anyway, who won an MVP award shooting 33% from 3.

 

In any case, I do hope Clutch is wrong here, I personally don't think I would trade away Sengun right now unless the return is a ridiculous overpay. I doubt some team is giving us a legit top 10 player or a pick who projects to have a strong chance at being a top 10 player for Sengun, so I doubt we're getting a great value if we trade him. I mean, sure, given everything I just said, if somebody wanted to trade Scoot for him straight-up, I'd do it, but I don't see that getting offered. To move up and take a guy like Scoot is... more questionable. I'd do it to move up and get Wemby, but I'm not sure if the marginal value is there for Scoot if we're also losing a top 5 pick in the deal. It's definitely not there for anyone else in this class

 

Part of @Clutch's reasoning may be that Smith Jr. can grow into becoming a starting center, supplanting Sengun at the position. He certainly has the height and by adding the weight and muscle he'd need inside? If he can do it without losing the lateral quickness he has and the explosive leaping ability we've had glimpses of, so that he can bang inside and become more of a shot blocker, that would give him a heck of a defensive impact. He's already shown that he can guard players on the perimeter.

Offensively, besides being an obvious lob threat, if he can get better at scoring around the basket inside, then add his midrange and 3 point shooting, which has clearly improved towards the end of the season, and the Rockets have real a future weapon in Jabari.

My thought is that a new, crafty head coach can find ways to use both Jabari and Sengun. Both have great potential to grow their game. Why not take advantage of having two very different bigs playing off each other, presenting that much more of a problem for opposing coaches? Toss into the mix Tari Eason, a new point guard who actually understands the position, and an electric shooting guard in Jalen Green and the Rockets just might become a nightmare to go against in this league, and a valued destination for other players. Almost forgot. We'll be drafting one or two players this summer and have $50-60 million in cap space. Crazy!

 

Yes, if I have been following what Clutch has been saying correctly, he wants to see Jabari at the 5. But I don't see the problem. Alpi and Bari can switch playing at the 5 and 4 offensively/defensively and, the better they get to know each other, complement each other perfectly and team up on offense and defense. As the season progressed, I have already seen them find each other on offense, and seen them communicate more on defense.

Even if you lucked into Wemby and were to throw him (and Tari) into the mix, there are 144 minutes at the C, PF, SF positions.

If Wemby, Alpi, Bari, Tari play 30 minutes on average (and I think Wemby would play much fewer minutes in his first year), you would STILL have 24 minutes to give to Garuba/KMJ or whomever. And that's before injuries.

 

We'll see if we can get lucky with the draft, and we'll have a huge amount of cap space. The possibilities are pretty mind blowing, in my opinion.

 

Clutch’s article is stating how the rockets brass see and value Sengun more than what he wants… some of y’all are misconstruing that. Js

4. Cut Nix
5. We need a consolidation trade of some sort

Also - Monday is Silas day

 

No, I think Clutch isn't very high on Sengun (based on him agreeing with starting Bruno over Sengun in his article and various comments in Rocketswatch). Totally fair, just a difference in opinion.

P.S.: I'd buy you a beer.

 

Those teams are going to draft Scoot but if not they'll have much better options than Sengun

 

Hah this is golden! I respext and understand clutch's point about how Senguj is relatively harder to build around becauae of his defensive issues. But a coach who can better scheme and doesn't require drop coverages every time out of the center will already make a difference. Plus, sengun is the most fun player to watch!