[ClutchFans] Three predictions for an important Rockets offseason

I would definitely trade Sengun and the #5 for Scoot Henderson. Draft Lively at the Clippers pick or even better trade up from the Clippers pick to get Hendricks. Sign a real PG and starting C in the off-season and we'd be gravy.

 

Idk if I’m high enough on Scoot to do that trade. He’s not some can’t miss prospect imo. I see a world where he’s Ja or he can be Dennis Smith Jr. Sengun and #5 better get me someone established

 

No way they will move Sengun to move up into the lottery. He might be packaged with picks to get a vet like Brooks or Brown.

 

A only. Trading Sengun for another rookie needing 3 years to be efficient would suck and probably kill our efforts to get good vets.

 

Yessssss....

 

No way? I could easily see them using Sengun to move up for Jarace Walker or Cason Wallace for example.

 

This is so crazy...why would they move a player who has already shown flashes of brilliance in the NBA and is on a great trajectory for a completely unproven prospect that should go in the 5-7 range at best?

I could see them considering it for Wemby, but there is really no other player in that draft that is a lock to even be as good as Sengun is today. And he is barely older than them.

 

Agree to disagree. I do like Jarace a lot, though. Please remember that Sengun is only 20 and probably the second most popular player on the current team. He also has gotten accolades from around the league. He is worth way more than the 5th or 6th pick. If we end up with the 5th pick, I would just take Jarace. If you needed Sengun to pair with all the Net picks for Brooks fine. That would necessitate a move of Jabari to center. Jarace would be your starting PF and we would absolutely have to sign Harden or Conley to have a shot at the play-in.

 

Only way i see Sengun getting moved is if its for an established star.

Other than Wemby, i dont see a player in the draft that you move Sengun for.

 

Straw poll from a few weeks ago:



And from a few days ago:



Clearly not everyone's favourite player (possibly including our gracious host here).

But in my opinion, the Rockets organization would regret it for a very long time if they were to trade Sengun.

 

Yetti may be Clutch's alternate account?

 

I’m not some rabid Sengun fan but you’re underrating his value if you’re talking about using him to trade up.

In pure market value terms, Sengun (or another recent draft “hit” at that level, like say Trey Murphy, or Giddey, or Mathurin) is worth something like the 3-7 pick in a good draft by themselves.

These guys are well above the median outcome of a pick in that range. People forget that so many players bust. Jarace Walker could be pretty good, but he could also suck against NBA players. We know Sengun is pretty good against NBA players.

And Sengun is the same age as Brandon Miller and Amen Thompson.

Not to mention rookies don’t help us until a few years down the line, when we want help in 2023-24.

 

Good read, but two notes:

1) Isolating is not KPJ's strong suit. His best offensive attribute is catch-and-shoot 3, which is reason #283 why he's not our future and long-term solution at PG.

2) I think there is a middle ground for Sengun: 6th man. It's bizarre because he might be the best player on our entire team, yet I feel like him running a second unit might be the best path forward with him. I do think his defense is too poor to be counted on as a closer on a winning team, but I'm not confident enough in that proclamation to say he will never be good enough on defense. So, in the meantime, Sengun as 6th man could work.

 

Well, I specifically said move up from #5 or #6 to #2 in my post. Let's keep in mind that Scoot Henderson would be the #1 pick in the majority of drafts. So what I was essentially asking is, "Is Alperen Sengun more valuable than the value difference between a #5ish pick and a #1 pick?"

#1 picks, or prospects with #1 pick-level value, are incredibly significant assets in the NBA. Usually they're not even available, and I have my doubts that anyone would even trade Scoot. But I think if you're the front office and you have the chance to get a player like that, even if it costs a prospect as good as Sengun, you have to at least think about it.

 

You have to have a really high grade on Scoot and you are also condemning yourself to another tank year with a rookie PG and your best option at center (at least currently). Scoot will have significant growing pains, because of his lack of an outside shot (see Ivey).

 

Yes.

I know y'all think I'm crazy, but I think Hollinger had it right when his analytics told him Sengun should actually go number one (he didn't trust his own analytics eventually, I think, and suggested no. 4 or whatever).

I don't care if people think I'm crazy, I think he's the best overall player from the last two drafts, and he might well turn out the best player from drafts 2021-2023 (I'd say Mobley has a case and Green will always be the better scorer, but hey, I wouldn't trade Sengun for Cunningham or whatever).

I'd love to have Wemby, but we'll have to see how his body holds up, and he will never be the playmaker Sengun is.

I'd love to have Scoot Henderson, but his G League stats are very underwhelming.

And again, Sengun is barely older than several of the top prospects in the upcoming draft. People forget that. The trajectory he is on is spectacular.

 

I really like Scoot as a prospect, but all the recent reporting says that Brandon Miller has a meaningful chance of going #2.

I also don’t give much credence to the “he’d go number 1 in most drafts” talk… it’s pretty common to hear that kind of thing. We heard about the top 3 in 2021. Heard it in 2018 etc.

You don’t trade the #5 + a player worth the #3-7 pick for a guy who could go #2 or #3. The value is just off.

Remember, the only way a trade like this would be happening is if the team at #2 doesn’t want Scoot and wants a different prospect. We’re not just going to overwhelm SAS or ORL with value so they are forced to trade it.

Maybe you do Tari + #5 + #19. Or add in next year’s Brooklyn pick. Nobody ever trades a 20yo top prospect like Sengun for a non all star. It just never happens.

 

Yeah you're way too hyped on him dude. I like Sengun a lot. He may yet prove himself to be a superstar-caliber player. But as of right now, he is not a #1 pick caliber prospect; he's missing the "elite physical gifts" thing that essentially every #1 pick has. To be that level of prospect, you need something beyond high-level skills. The reason for that is because it's too hard to project basketball skills to be at an elite, generational level, which they need to be to achieve superstar status if you don't have elite raw athleticism/physical gifts.

There are often guys who break out a bit later in the draft and become superstar on the basis of their skills. But they have to prove it first, and I think that's fine.

I'm not necessarily saying I would trade Sengun just to move a few places forward in the draft. But he is nowhere near worth a #1 pick in a straight-up, one-for-one trade. Not even close at this point. To reach that level he will need to at least make an all-star game given that he's fairly slow-footed, slightly undersized for his position, and not a particularly explosive athlete. It's too easy for front offices to imagine him reaching a hard ceiling where his skills won't carry him farther due to his tools.

 

Let me ask you - do you think this guy had "elite physical gifts"?



(and yes, I am aware that he was a much better defender - but he wasn't as good a passer)

Only next season will Sengun be as old as Duncan was in his first NBA season.

 

Um... yes?! Tim Duncan was 6'11" with a 7'5" wingspan. That alone is an elite tool.

I'm not saying physical tools are the only thing that matters in getting picked #1. Far from it. But historically you need to have at least one elite physical tool, preferably more than one, as a minimum prerequisite to get drafted first overall. Except maybe if it's an incredibly weak draft class, I guess.