When I wrote this, the narrative was he was just going to be let go. When he gave his demands for guarantees i bowed out. When he got franchised I was an absolute no on him. Think I may have had a few beers when I made the thread and I regret having created it.
Even if this thread was begun while inebriated, it merely asked the question, so there's nothing wrong with it.
That's a bit unfair. He hasn't been *as* good as his MVP season. But he's been very good. He's easily a top 10 QB, and possibly higher. How do *you* know this? Keep in mind: Lamar Jackson does not have an agent, so any contract demands/negotiations are almost certainly coming from the Ravens. I have yet to see any demands *from Lamar.* The cost to acquire Jackson is actually negotiable - if he agrees to sign his franchise tag first. Also... it's really *1* first round pick because the Texans are almost certainly going to use their #2 pick this month on a QB. At least in the interim, Lamar Jackson >>> Young/Stroud. Is that difference worth wherever your first round pick lands next year with Lamar Jackson at QB? Both of his injuries occurred while in the pocket. His running style has not been an issue, health-wise. This, to me, is the viable counterargument: rookie QB contracts - for very good rookie QBs - are the get-out-of-jail-free card of the NFL right now. If Young/Stroud is good, you get them CHEAP for four years before having to pay them Lamar Jackson money. My only other small-ish counterargument is that Baltimore has, generally, set a terrific standard when it comes to their personnel. So I'd be a bit cautious if they're willing to let him walk. But almost every other argument doesn't hold much water to me. Lamar Jackson is a great QB, and if the Colts were smart, they'd go all-in on him.
Just for arguments sake, it’s very arguable that Lamar isn’t a top 10 QB. He’s not been in the top 10 in passer rating since 2020. He’s not been in the top 20 in completion percentage since 2020. He’s not been in top 12 for passing TDs since 2020. He’s not been in the top 20 for passing yards since 2020. Has missed 10 games in the last 3 seasons. He has done ok in QBR for 2 of the last 3 seasons with a 7th and 9th place finish. Right now, he’s maybe 10th in the league. Not close to the top 5 guys as a QB. Talent is there, but if he loses his legs he’s a very average QB
Hey, Thanks for your thoughts! You've obviously put some time in your reply and I don't have time to respond now, but will get back to you when I can.
So we agree: he's a top 10 QB. Jackson was 11th in '20 and you know who else hasn't been top 10 in passer rating since 2020? Justin Herbert. Would you give him all your money and draft picks right now if available?... I want you to mentally picture all the top QBs in the league... and who they're throwing to: Tyreek, Kelce, Chase, JJeff, Davante, Stefon... Let me know when you can even *think* of a Ravens' receiver since 2020. Marquis Brown? Willie Snead? Rashod Bateman? Mark Andrews is an elite TE. He's started 26 of 50 games between '20-'22. You'd be hard-pressed to name another Ravens' offensive player outside of Andrews (ignoring I listed a few above) - and even if you could, that player is almost certainly average/mediocre. And yet, he's scored 71 TDs over the 39 games he's started since '20. That's fairly remarkable, given all you have to do to stop Baltimore is stop him. 11. Baltimore's record with Lamar Jackson those three seasons: 26-13; without Lamar Jackson: 3-8. Correct me if I've done the math wrong - but isn't "10th" = top 10? Here are the top 10 QBs in rating last year; which ones would you trade for Lamar?: 1. Tua - absolutely 2. Mahomes - no 3. Garoppolo - absolutely 4. Hurts - no, but only because he's younger &, for now, cheaper. But every critique of Lamar applies to Hurts. 5. G. Smith - absolutely 6. Joey B - no 7. Josh Allen - no 9. Trevor - no 10. Andy Dalton - absolutely Let's keep going: 11. Tannenhill - absolutely 12. Herbert - no (though... I mean, other than Herbert being more prototypical, I'm not sure the argument is terribly compelling - you know he hasn't been top 10 in passer rating since '20...) 13. Cousins - absolutely 14. Daniel Jones - absolutely 15. Aaron Rodgers - absolutely 16. Prescott - ..... maybe? Six no's and a maybe. That would put Lamar Jackson 8th, possibly 7th depending on your view on Prescott (who is four years older - I leaning heavy "yes" on dealing Prescott for Lamar.)
Have you ever thought to yourself why a successful franchise like Baltimore would focus on run game and receiving TEs? Lamar’s high side is 10th currently, he has regressed literally every year since he’s got in the league. And no, I don’t think anyone is trading Tua or Rodgers for Lamar, not based off of ability. And if we’re being honest, Cousins and Dak are above Lamar as well. Specially for the price Lamar is asking. He wants to be paid like a top 2-3 QB and he is nowhere close to Mahomes/Allen/Burrow.
He’s a run first QB that hardly uses his WR’s. He’s been oft injured lately and wants a fully guaranteed contract. Would rather draft a QB and rock with them than Lamar. Lamar is solid, but he needs to learn how to use his WR’s more consistently. Def not worth the contract negotiation trouble ALONG WITH losing potentially major draft assets on a team that needs them just to acquire him. Pass.
NOTE: I replied in the above to your points. Hey - you can have your opinion, but many evaluators have some very mixed reviews of LJ and that's likely why BAL hasn't signed him yet. I'll leave you with this evaluation that ranked him #28/32 QBs in explosive plays for 2021... https://www.si.com/nfl/ravens/news/ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-ranked-low-for-explosive-plays-in-2022 He either stays with Ravens or a team like Indy gets desperate and signs him if they strike out in the draft. No other owner is as insane to give a player over $230M guaranteed, that was stupid.
Lol what WRs? He's been playing with a bag of trash ever since he got in the league. Maybe if he had some guys who could get open and catch he would use them more. Hollywood brown use to routinely drop touchdowns. That dude dropped 3 touchdowns in one game vs the lions.
They've spent two of their last four #1s on WRs. Last night, they gave Odell Beckham $15MM. The answer to your question, honestly, is that you're asking the wrong question: why has an otherwise successful franchise like Baltimore been so bad at finding and developing WR talent? That's technically not true - he won MVP his second season. If, likely, you meant *since his MVP* season, sure - but a) many QBs regress after an MVP season; b) he's been hurt a lot. But, more to the point: IMO, it's a disingenuous take. He was *very good* in 2020, and was not bad in '21 or '22. Tua is more of an injury risk than Lamar, and no one is trading a 25-yo Lamar Jackson for a 40-yo Aaron Rodgers. Kirk Cousins cost the Vikings $31MM last season, the third-highest QB cap hit in the NFL. Prescott - who is four years older than Jackson - will be 6th this year. Yes; QBs are paid a premium. He will be the 2nd/3rd highest paid QB for about 10 minutes, or until Burrow/Herbert sign their extensions. There is no reason to think a 25-yo MVP starting QB is going to hit the market and not set some kind of contract record. It happens literally every time. Hell, teams lined up to make Watson - a serial predator - the highest-paid QB in the NFL. It's the nature of the position.
Excuse me, regressed every year since becoming a full time starter. 2020 was a solid year but still a regression and against the league, not close to elite. I don’t think many teams would want Lamar over Rodgers right now, definitely not in their primes. And yes, I understand QBs get paid, but Lamar is not in the same class as the top level guys. If he was to get a contract similar to Dak or Cousins I don’t think anyone would flinch. Even Kylers contract. He wants above Watson money, and while I think he’s a better talent than Watson that contract is an outlier that a desperate team messed up on. In no world should Lamar’s contract be above Mahomes or Allen, both far superior talents to Lamar.
Again, where are you getting that info? I saw the link: that is Baltimore leaking information; not Lamar. It may be exactly what he's asking for - he'd be foolish not to - Watson/Cleveland set the bar, and Lamar has had a better career than Watson (and isn't a serial predator). But asking for grossly inflated market value is one thing; the question is how much would he settle for? That we don't know. But, again: no legitimate starting QB is going to hit the market and not ask to exceed whatever the most recent record QB contract is - again, that's the nature of the beast.
It might not be true but every story is saying he wants more guaranteed than Watson. And it might be the nature of the beast but at some point you have to stop paying above average QBs top 3 money. That’s not a market, that’s a whose turn is it. It needs reset
Right. Wanting and getting are two different things. No 25-yo, former MVP starting QB is going to hit the market and "settle." These guys get paid and repeatedly reset the market. There's aren't 10 above-average QBs in the NFL, though. It is a premium position with limited resources - of course they're going to get paid.[/quote]
His cost to the team losing him is 2 1sts. KCs 31st pick is valued at 600 as is future 1st picks, so you could say our 2023 1-12, valued at 1200 meets that requirement. Now we would not have him on a Rookie deal for 4 years, much less a 5th year option, so we simply have to pay him actual market value (not overinflated wish list) to make a legitimate offer. At that point, I don't care if he accepts or not or whether Baltimore matches or not.Which I have always considered what the value of any asset is worth to you. But this is an alternative to drafting a raw draftee QB to lead your team..
Only problem with LJ is injury. There is a bunch of concern about how Bryce Young will get hurt in the NFL - meanwhile LJ already has. Who wants to pay a mega contract with that in mind?
Lamar has had several sprains and a concussion. Nothing really serious. I was posting that mainly because everyone and their mom wants to come out and relegate LJ as one dimensional and Big Ben of all people should have just stayed quiet! It made me chuckle.
