If Gilbert is who we all hope he is, he will be in AA by July 1st and get a taste of AAA before the season ends. Generally the placements are more aggressive than I expected. Barber is now a serious breakout candidate. Gaston and Laurenzo should be on everyone’s radar. The system is still fairly weak overall in the infield but these rosters give me more hope than I had before. It will not surprise me if Houston’s system is much more highly rated by the end of this season. Aside from Fayetteville’s infield (and really just 2B/3B there, since Lorenzo is a decent SS prospect) I don’t see any glaring holes anywhere. I am anxious to see if Baez and Gomez get into Fayetteville this year. I wonder how bad Cristian Gonzalez is hurt.
Luis Baez and possibly Ryan Clifford have more power. Baez had one of the 3 best exit velocities in baseball for someone his age… I’m in the minority but I think that Kenni Gomez could end up with more power than anyone in the minors. He had the highest exit velocity at his age in all of baseball, he is still growing and filling out and he has a really strong ability to get the sweet part of the bat on the ball.
Yay! Let the kids play. eta: my 2 great uncles were named Gaston and Malcolm, btw. I don't know why I'm bringing this up.
Gomez earned the attention. He is still only 17 years old and last year posted a 300/400/500 line, all while physically changing a lot. He got a couple inches bigger, his shoulders got broader and he started to add some muscle. He also showed legitimate 65-70 speed and his glove was vastly better than expected and now is likely a long term plus centerfielder. It was one season, and anything can happen but his 2022 was exceptional and he improved more than anyone in his entire signing class in baseball. The coaching staff down there felt he was special, and said it’s the best group they have seen in many years with the organization. There is a lot to like…. 17 years old, top exit velocity at his level, high contact rate, excellent speed and centerfielder… can run the bases, lots of walks and doubles - and still physically growing. Guys like him at his age and level of development don’t all pan out- but from an upside perspective he has a whole lot to like.
My only memory of Orlando Miller is that I saw him do the weirdest check swing ever, once. Instead of holding his swing up arresting his arm motion, he just let go of the bat so it dropped somewhere behind him and swung through with just his arms/hands. It seemed silly, but I guess if your hands can react quicker than your whole upper body maybe it works. But considering I’ve never seen anyone else do that, I’m thinking it wasn’t too effective.
One interesting thing about the current minor leagues is how many prospects will be Rule 5 eligible. I assume it is a result of the covid year that players were moved more slowly thru the systems, but every player on Houston's current AAA roster will be Rule 5 eligible this year (except Pedro Leon and of course those players already on the 40 man roster), and most of the AA roster will as well. Previewing this year's expected Rule 5 class: High risk: P Misael Tamarez, P Jayden Murray, OF Justin Dirden, P Jaime Melendez, OF Colin Barber Moderate risk: SS Grae Kessinger, C Luke Berryhill, P Jairo Solis, P Cesar Gomez, P Julio Robaina, P Matt Ruppenthal, C CJ Stubbs, OF Kenedy Corona Low risk: OF Ross Adolph, OF Marty Costes, IF Bryan Arias, P Tyler Ivey, P Blair Henley, P Tyler Brown, P Angel Macuare, P Devin Conn, P Jonathan Sprinkle, IF Luis Santana, IF SHay Whitcomb, OF Matt Barefoot, OF Zach Daniels, OF Alex McKenna, C CJ Corrrea, OF Scott Schreiber, P Derek West, P Ryan Gusto, P Valente Bellozo, P Carlos Calderon, P Brayan De Paula, P Jose Betances, P Franny Cobos, P Edinson Batista, P Cole McDonald, C Miguel Palma, IF Freudis Nova, C Nerio Rodriguez, P Peyton Plumlee, P Max Roberts, OF Roilan Machandy, P Ronny Garcia, IF Rolando Espinosa, IF Cristian Gonzalez, C Carlos Hurtado, P Manuel Urias, P Luis Vega, P Bryan King, P Juan Pablo Lopez, P Diosmerky Taveras, P Luis Angel Rodriguez, P Deury Carrasco, P Elvis Garcia, P Jairo Lopez, P Cristofer Mezquita, P Gerardo Bojorquez Essentially any player experiencing success in the upper levels should be on the radar for potentially getting a shot in the majors this season, as they otherwise will be exposed to being lost for nothing. And while none of those guys projects as an elite prospect, they might be ripe for inclusion in deadline deals for secondary additions. These factors may also work against non-Rule 5 eligible guys like Leon, Wagner, Arrighetti, and Gordon.
Would the same be true for other teams? I wonder if Brown and the scouting team has a good perspective or insights on "underappreciated" eligible players on other teams?
All 26-and-under roster: C Yainer Diaz 1B Ryan Clifford 2B Pedro Leon SS Jeremy Pena 3B Joe Perez RF Kyle Tucker CF Drew Gilbert LF Colin Barber DH Yordan Alvarez UT Grae Kessinger C Korey Lee DH Justin Dirden OF Jacob Melton SP Cristian Javier SP Hunter Brown P Forrest Whitley P Spencer Arrighetti P Andrew Taylor P Colton Gordon P Jayden Murray P Jaime Melendez P Miguel Ullola P Alex Santos II P Misael Tamarez P Jairo Solis RP Bryan Abreu
I do think it is probably the case for other teams, although my guess is to a slightly lesser extent, since the Astros' situation was compounded by the loss of draft picks and mature 40 man roster. I would imagine the Rule 5 draft will be more fruitful/active over the next couple of years than it was in the past, and teams that are good at mining other systems will benefit.
He has only played at a really low level, so there is still a lot of volatility with players at that level and age. However, if he does really well this year, then he will skyrocket up prospect lists.
How does a guy like McKenna ever get any playing time in Corpus? 5 other outfielders who have been on top prospect lists, including 3 who are currently on several of them. Maybe he should retire?
I'm hoping he continues the upwards trend. I'm thinking he's got a chance to be a great player and if he progresses the way we hope being in the MLB by age 21 gives me Soto/Tucker vibes. The talent from what I've read about him is definitely there.
I really really like these rosters. AAA is stacked on both sides of the ball. I guess Madris and Matijevic made it thru waivers. AA has a lot of risk on both sides but there is talent there. Arrighetti, Gordon, Melendez, and Gomez have very high ceilings. Colin Barber might be a top 100 guy by the end of the year. There are 7-8 guys who I would not be suprised if they panned out into everyday hitters. Asheville's lineup is stacked and I can't remember an Astros minor league roster having a group of 5 OF prospects better in sum total than Gilbert/Melton/Corona/Cerny/Sandle. Their rotation may struggle. I'm bummed Cristian Gonzalez is hurt. Fayetteville's infield is weak. I was mildly disappointed that Gomez wasn't assigned there. But Lorenzo/Whitaker/Clifford/Gaston is a high ceiling young foursome of prospects, and their college pitchers should perform very well there before they move on, as should the trio of international arms (Fleury/Nodal/Santa). And there's still a good amount of talent in extended ST: Santander, Nieves, Baez, Gomez, Gonzalez, and a few of the arms are worth tracking.
Not everybody is a big prospect, you still need to fill out the rosters. He will get some PA. At this point for a prospect in AA/AAA, you are tantalizingly close to the majors. Even if you barely get there it's a huge deal, so it would be hard to give it up. He was in camp with us, so he's not completely of the radar, and he's only 25.
I get that. It was supposed to be tongue in cheek. But the entire Astros system is flat stacked in the outfield. A guy like McKenna who is not a hot name has to rely on performance if he's going to advance. That's tough when playing time will be so hard to get. And AAA actually looks a bit lighter than AA and A+, but in 3 weeks (hopefully) Brantley is back and Meyers or Julks will be optioned. He actually could get pushed even further down the depth chart, or maybe even released or traded away, once the guys at A+ start earning promotions. It's tough to earn a promotion if you are the 6th outfielder at a level.
