To me, it seems like Jalen is slowing down in game. Hes settling in to the pace and the game itself is slowing down for him. Thats such a great thing to witness, and the Cavs game was very apperent in that regard. Year 1 was a lot of frantic and adjusting to the league. As this year winds down, the game is getting slower even with playing with pace. Hes not rushing his shots, or his dribble moves. Its so much more smooth and in control.
I’m about 90% sure he will a top 3 scorer in this league in the next two or three years. He’s starting to get really physical on drives and racking up the free throws. It’s going to be scary when he starts bumping guys off consistently and gets that shot more honed in.
I still think his ceiling is Zach Lavine which is good enough i think. Explosive, elite scorer but Lavine is clearly better shooter of the two. I'd be happy if he becomes an efficient 25 ppg kinda player (also not complete dogsh*t on defense). I like him, like his athleticism, the x factor he has, the way he can make sth out of nothing at times but i don't trust his shooting in general to say that yeah one day he's gonna be a top 15 player itl. I don't think he has a high bbiq. I believe that his handles have improved last couple of months and he can playmake a little. He has improved at certain departments. Having a true pg would help a little i think that's why KPJ should play wing.
Green is just about as good right now in his second, age 20 year as LaVine was in his fifth, age 23 year. If you want to talk about current guards, I think his ceiling is somewhere around Donovan Mitchell or prime Bradley Beal. One step above LaVine's level, but maybe not quite a top 10 player in the league depending on how you measure it.
If you are going to do that comp with Lavine do it with Beal because 20 year old Beal is like significantly worse than Green. 17 ppg on 51% ts at 35% unassisted rate for fgs made 22 ppg on 54% ts at 60% unassisted rate for fgs made. Beal was a off ball cutter and catch and shoot guy at this stage of his career and was still more inefficient on less pts.
I thought Smith showed even more advanced as a scorer last night. Hit some difficult turnaround fadeaways that looked really pretty.
In his last 10 games, Green has 23.6ppg on 16.6 shots. He's not shooting well from 3 (33%) so he's doing it the hard way (8 FTA per game). He's at 6 FTA per game on the season which is a dramatic increase from last season's 3.5 FTA. It took Kobe 4 years to average that. According to Statmuse, here are the only players to have more FTA than Jalen before the age of 21 - note the calibre of player: James Howard C Anthony Durant Bryant Doncic Wiggins Bosh Booker Z Williamson Abdur-Rahim Marbury McGrady Antetokounmpo Josh Smith Anthony Davis Anthony Edwards Steph Curry Larry Drew Amare Stoudemire Jalen Green (Also 13th in assists,10th in total points and 5th in 3P% on this list) The kind of scorer the pessimists make him out to be - eternally inefficient chucker - is as likely an outcome as Jalen becoming one of the best players on this list. We are trending in the right direction and while it would have been nice for him to have been as good as Lebron James at this age, he remains in elite company out of players with his age and experience level.
I'm so unimpressed with Duren. If I want what they project him to be in 5 years, I'll just sign that in the FA market for under $20m instead of investing half a decade in developing one. Jalen Duren is the kind of player I hope my #12 pick becomes. Wouldn't say it's a dime a dozen, but not far off. There's plenty of them in the market. I would not trade Jabari for two Durens right now and that's even while assuming Duren is more likely to reach his ceiling. Can rarely ever sign a potentially high scoring 3&D 6'11 guy with a 7'1 wingspan who plays really good defense and also rebounds and blocks shots well for his position. Can sign a Duren every summer or two. Big difference.
I don’t get the comparison to Lavine truly. Their game is nothing alike. Green has much more explosion and a variety of moves off the dribble weaving in and out of driving lanes. Lavine has a more simplified game. Green has more dribble moves but lack the control Lavine has and it comes with time. Remember it took Lavine 5 years to finally score at least 20 ppg. He played 37 min per game his 3rd year and still didn’t crack 20 ppg. He also bulked up 20 pounds since his rookie year and much of Lavine’s paint scoring is by strength bouncing off defenders and finding contact. Green has gotten stronger and continuing to work on this. With time strength, control, and discipline will come.
A lot of people are underestimating his abilities. Having the explosion or burst is special and not everyone has it. And it’s not the same as Jordan Clarkson or Lavine or a lot of these other comparisons. His explosiveness and ability to get from a dribbling position to the paint is elite in this league. One thing he has to learn and build upon is using contact with the defender and better control and discipline. When to drive when not to drive. Driving to make a play knowing Eason etc will cut baseline for instance. This will come with time as he increases his strength and has more on court experience.
Smith has shown us a few things over the last couple months. He is getting to the paint more and he is taking more pull up mid range shots which are the same shots he took in college. He just needs to continue to work on handles, finishing in the paint, and sticking those threes. He is an interesting player at the moment with a lot of promise.
Yes I think the way the Rockets play does hinder his game. The bad spacing, the break down of the play, and consistent holding of the ball and play of KPJ has affected his role as a primary scorer and it’s frustrating to watch. The Rockets usually run half court plays off Sengun in the high post with dribble handoffs to KPJ or KPJ is playing the high screen and roll or coming off a double drag. But he consistently holds the ball dead set at scoring instead of trying to make plays. The set also takes very long to develop and often breaks down with bunching and bad floor spacing. When Green gets the ball off a Sengun dribble handoff or a pass from KPJ on the perimeter the offense is stagnant and he often tries to make a play off the dribble drive with a tight window. This is how Rockets play and the coach needs to either put playmaking duties in his hands or get a better pg and system that allows for spacing and ball sharing.
