It only works if other pitchers aren't doing it. If everyone threw like Javier, than batters will eventually adjust.
Not sure I agree with this, feel like the fastball with late life has always been a thing and they just now have the data to back it. Joe Ryan actually had a better fastball (similar velo) when looking at run value, what I think separates Javier is the nasty slider that he pairs it with.
Some more pitchers have been released. Cody Deason was the Astros' 5th-round pick out of Arizona in 2018. Deason had a fine first full season in 2019, going 9-6 with a 3.40 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 100.2 innings between the two Class A levels. But the pandemic happened and he missed most of 2021, and never found that form again. He went 5-5 with a 6.14 ERA in 21 appearances (14 starts) with Corpus in 2022. Brett Conine was another 2018 draftee; the Astros got him in the 11th round out of Cal State Fullerton. Conine also looked great in his first full season in 2019, as he blew through both A levels and finished in Corpus with an 8-4 record and a 2.20 ERA in 25 appearances (15 starts) across three levels. He couldn't master AAA, however, as he posted a 5.66 and a 6.86 ERA over the last two seasons, both of which he spent with Sugar Land. Shea Barry was a 22nd-round pick out of UC-Santa Barbara in 2019. Barry struggled mightily with his control as he walked 53 (against 51 strikeouts) in 57 innings with Fayetteville. Willy Collado signed in April 2016 out of the Dominican Republic. Collado looked like he'd be an interesting middle-relief type after posting a 1.83 ERA with 7 saves between the two A levels and Corpus in 2019. Then the pandemic happened, and then he got hurt. Collado only made 5 appearances in the last two seasons; he only made one appearance in the FCL in 2022. Jojanse Torres signed at 22 out of the Dominican Republic and made his debut in 2018 and then tore it up in 2019 (12-0, 1.71 ERA), putting himself in position to possibly help out the Astros bullpen in 2020. And then the pandemic happened. And then he forgot how to throw strikes. Torres had his 2021 derailed by elbow issues and returned to post an unsightly 9.34 ERA between Corpus Christi and Sugar Land in 2022. Heitor Tokar a 6'6", 280-pound Brazilian, got a $300,000 bonus in 2017. Coming from a country where baseball isn't the main sport, Tokar was considered a project and he probably would've gotten a slightly longer leash if Tri-City and Greeneville still existed. Tokar went 3-4 with an 8.02 ERA in 20 appearances (11 starts) for Asheville in 2022. Alfredi Jimenez was signed on July 2, 2017 out of the Dominican Republic. Jimenez opened the 2022 season with Asheville and made five appearances, going 1-3 with an 8.55 ERA, before getting shut down. He returned to make two appearances in the FCL in August.
No shocks there, although I am mildly surprised Tokar wasn’t given one more year. I remember seeing him at spring training his first year stateside, dude looked like a total beast.
Recap of players remaining in the system from the last 10 drafts: 2013 (0) 2014 (0) 2015 (2): 3B Alex Bregman, RF Kyle Tucker 2016 (1): RHP Forrest Whitley 2017 (9): 3B Joe Perez, 1B JJ Matijevic, LHP Parker Mushinski, RHP Brandon Bielak, CF Jake Meyers, OF Chas McCormick, RHP Tyler Ivey, OF COrey Julks, RHP Matt Ruppenthal 2018 (11): SS Jeremy Pena, RHP Shawn Dubin, IF David Hensley, RHP Austin Hansen, RHP JP FRance, RHP Devin Conn, OF Marty Costes, RHP Layne Henderson, OF Alex McKenna, C Cesar Salazar, 1B/OF Scott Schreiber 2019 (16): Lee, Brown, Kessinger, Brewer, Barefoot, Stubbs, West, Arias, Horrell, Barber, Henley, Guerrero, Gusto, McDonald, Plumlee, Dickey 2020 (4): Brown, Whitcomb, Daniels, Santos 2021 (16): Hamilton, ARrighetti, Chaidez, Wagner, Loperfido, Gordon, Brown, Sandle, Stevens, Kouba, Williams, Whitaker, Kato, Salgado, Swanson, Nieves 2022 (20): Borden, Gilbert, Melton, Knorr, Dombroski, DeVos, Price, Blubaugh, Guilfoil, Gillis, Cole, Clifford, Dezenzo, Loftin, Sacco, McGowan, Garcia, Wrobleski, Taylor, Mancini
Nearly a 40 CSW% for Solis in his first start since 2018 and averaged nearly 95/2400 on his fastball. This guy is going to be in Sugar Land sooner than later.
Players who have raised my expectations of them over the last month: C: CJ Stubbs, Cesar Salazar, Sandro Gaston IF: Grae Kessinger, Will Wagner, Leosdany Molina OF: Justin Dirden, Marty Costes, Corey Julks, Jordan Brewer, Kenedy Corona, Jacob Melton, Kenni Gomez P: Jairo Solis, Ronel Blanco, Brian Garcia, Jayden Murray, Matt Ruppenthal, Spencer Arrighetti Players I have lowered my expectations for over the last month: C: Luke Berryhill, CJ Correa, Nerio Rodriguez IF: Joe Perez, Shay Whitcomb, Freudis Nova, Luis Santana OF: Drew Gilbert P: Forrest Whitley, Angel Macuare, Julio Robaina, Adrian Chaidez
I think Gilbert is the most disappointing of that lower bunch. There was a lot of hype for him going into ST.
Has Gilbert played in Spring Training? I don’t remember seeing his name in a box score, but I probably haven’t checked every game.
Is the disappointment in that he hasn't been healthy?? I thought he hadn't played yet? Or did I miss him?? I was specifically looking forward to seeing him and Solis play.
I wouldn’t say he’s “less of a prospect”, I just said that my expectations of him this year are lower than they were march 1st. When Brown started hyping him I expected him to get a good amount of run with the big league club, hoped he would start in AA and could be punching his way into the majors by the end of the year. Very likely it is just health related and so there’s probably not a long term impact. But now I expect him to start in A ball and his best case is to end the year with a short audition in AA.
Seems like you and some other people read something different into Brown's comments than I did. I thought he was simply touting him as an elite prospect who should kill it in the minors and announce his status as our long term centerfielder. Not that he was gonna be our guy this season in October. FWIW, I see no reason the Astros won't fast track him through A ball just because he didn't get run in camp. I think its very feasible he could spend most of the season in the upper minors.
https://www.mlb.com/news/fastest-prospect-from-each-team-2023?partnerID=web_article-share Figured Leon was faster than Cerny but another interesting thing was why they mentioned Cerny was shut down last season. Missed almost all of August with a bruised thumb; I’m assuming that’s what kept him from getting brought up to High A. Prior to the injury he was red hot in Fayetteville with a >900 ops over June-July. I’m very excited to see what Cerny can do in Asheville.
Dunno what whitley will become, but people were putting a lot of stock in early ST pitching after not pitching much the last few years. He very well may still have the gears to go to that made him the elite prospect, just a matter of putting it back together...and him not doing something stupid to ruin it
If Whitley can be effective in AAA and have a successful short stint in the majors in long relief (or as a spot starter) this season, I'll be a happy camper. Maybe he'd even be a legit candidate for the rotation in 2024. A guy can dream.
