Altuve has two world series rings and 4 world series appearances. Has more playoff homeruns than all the others combined, so he should be top 3 minimum.
https://theathletic.com/4309322/2023/03/16/mlb-extension-week-hitters/ Kyle Tucker, 26 Controlled through 2025 2023 Salary: $5 million (first year of arbitration) Tucker’s $5 million salary in his first year of arbitration matches that of Carlos Correa, who went on to earn a total of $24.7 million in his three arb years. Let’s round that up to $25 million for Tucker over the next three years, acknowledging that’s pretty conservative. (Correa’s final year of arbitration came after the 2020 season, which isn’t the best gauge for comparisons.) For Tucker’s free-agent years, let’s compare him to a very different style of player. Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | AAV | 2022 AAV Prince Fielder | 2012 | 28-36 | 4.7 | 13.2 | 19.2 | 9 | 214.0 | 23.8 | 28.5 Kyle Tucker | 2023 | 26- | 4.7 | 12.9 | 12.9 While Tucker is scheduled to be a year older than Prince Fielder was when he hit the open market, his skillset figures to age better than Fielder’s did, even at the time. Fielder’s deal with the Tigers paid him $28.5 million in today’s money, and let’s do the same inflation calculation we just did with Guerrero to move that to $31 million. If the Astros want to extend Tucker through age-35 — that’s what GM Dana Brown’s former team in Atlanta did with both Olson and Austin Riley — it would mean buying out six free-agent years. Add that to the arbitration estimate and you get nine years and $211 million.
I don’t think they are in a hurry to extend Tucker. They can give it a year and see how Gilbert, Leon, Dirden and other prospects progress. If you count Myers and McCormick we are really in a great position to let Tucker walk in 2026 if necessary.
With broadcast rights fees an unknown quantity that kind of deal seems unlikely to me from any team. Money to pay those kind of salaries is not going to be there and the future is even more uncertain than it has always been. Unless and until there is a way to make baseball profitable found those kind of arbitration numbers will not be within reason let alone free agency.
I agree that they don’t seem to be in a particular hurry but there definitely is an early mover advantage. the more team-control years get included in the contract, the lower AAV over the life of the deal. While that bunch of OFers is promising, there’s no sure bet top prospect like waiting in the wings. Given a year, Gilbert could put himself in a Pena-like position though.
Crane will always be profitable if/when he decides to sell the team. That’s how most sports owners look at “profits”. In reality, a lot of successful teams don’t really mint money on a yearly basis… but franchise values always go up in this very exclusive “I have a bigger boat than you” club.
I suspect almost all teams make a profit not counting franchise values (though talking 20-50M for most teams). I suspect franchise values go up partly for the status symbol, but also because teams make yearly profits. Take away the yearly profits, and I think franchise values stop going up as quickly.
Don’t get me wrong I’m not against extending him and now is better than later. Everything is risk vs. reward and I think Crane and company have been pretty adept at evaluating that dynamic. My guess is they will not extend Tucker unless it is a really good deal with the uncertainty of TV contracts and such and with what we are seeing with our OF prospects. You also have to weigh who we may not be able to extend if we extend Tucker and what their replacements look like.
Media deals drive the “profits”. They’ve always gone up on every new iteration. They also drive franchise value moreso than attendance. contracts also go up because of said media deals. If teams were always profitable beyond their sales price, I doubt owners would ever sell.
The farm is flush with OFers & catchers. Pitchers in the high minors are thin but the team has plenty of starting pitching locked in for the next couple of years. They may need to shop for a couple of relievers but there is some talented youth in the pen. The weak point is infielders. Short Stop is the only position that appears set and the lack of depth behind Pena is concerning. Second and third are good for the next couple of years and Will Wagner adds depth to both positions. There are a couple of those outfield prospects that have first baseman stamped on their asses. This year we have to acquire some SS prospects through trades, good drafting, whatever it takes. Those guys are needed for depth all around the infield and have to be prioritized. If that can be accomplished the team should be able to make it through the financial armageddon that the loss of broadcast rights fees promises. With no reason to do any extraneous spending to stay competitive for the next several years we may be able to ride out the upcoming storm.
There’s a reason MLB franchises are often only sold when the owner is very old and needs to get his/her estate in order.
Is Drayton dead? He was the poster child of claiming they were operating at a loss every season… but he made it all up on the sales price much like Crane will do as well.
McLane was 75 years old when he sold the Astros and it was pretty clear the reason he was selling was to simplify his estate.
Could be true as well… but doesn’t change the fact that the ultimate cash out for all these owners claiming they’re losing money will be on the table whenever they want.
If you’re saying that generally owners who say their MLB franchises are losing money are lying, I would agree. I was just pointing out that your comment about owners selling being evidence that franchises don’t make money isn’t necessarily true.
There are at least some signs that this cycle might be ending. The PAC media deal mess is a canary in the coalmine, and the failures of these NBA/MLB RSN's looks to be the next domino. If that bubble bursts and media rights actually go down, the valuation bubble is going to potentially collapse too.
