What is your current Rockets Top 5 Draft Big board?

I'm starting to come around to Miller over Scoot. Scoot's just really short and his shooting hasn't improved much. Even with next level athleticism that's a dangerous combo. Miller is versatile and can do a bit of everything.

 

If he's going to shoot sub 30% from 3, he's essentially going to be defended like Westbrook & Simmons where teams leave them alone outside and dare them to shoot or drive into a clogged paint.

Sure, IF he learns to shoot he can be a top tier point guard ..... IF.

 

Yeah, it's a gamble, that's why he's not the consensus #2 pick behind Wemby. If he had some semblance of a jump shot he'd be Scoot, who scouts feel confident will develop in that area. Still--the potential rewards are immense if it pans out. IF, as you said.

 

1) Wembanyama
2) Trade back for Black or Walker
3) Trade back for Black or Walker
4) Trade back for Black or Walker
5) if you still can trade back for Black or Walker if not just draft Black maybe still a little to early for him but he is our guy.

Goal is to get an asset (now or future) and our guy
———
Best case for this draft—>
Wembanyama & LAC pick (a big defenseman point guard that can shoot)
Or
Dream Trade our pick 2-5 (and LAC pick if needed) for BOTH Black & Walker (Magic & Bulls picks)

 

1. Wemby
2. Brandon Miller/Cam Whitmore
3. Cam Whitmore/Brandon Miller
4. Scoot/Jarace Walker/Anthony Black
5. Scoot/Anthony Black/Jarace Walker


No to dudes who cant shoot like Amen. Suggs, Ousmane Dieng and Ben Simmons anybody? Being long and athletic doesnt matter if you got 0 range. Hell people were swearing up and down 2 yrs ago Suggs was the no 1 pick cuz of his leadership ability, intangibles and freak athleticism (He was a football prospect y'all!!!!).

 

How sure are you the potential rewards will be immense? Dudes averaging less vs high school comp than Brandon Miller vs college comp. How is that not a red flag? Look up zion stats in his lone college season and explain to me why a supposedly generational athlete cant do the same vs high school kids in a joke league.

 

The whole point is that it's an upside play. Of course he's not there yet, of course it's not a sure thing--again, if he already had put it together he'd be in front of both Scoot and Miller. That's why he's more of a #3-6 type prospect, not a consensus top 2 prospect.

Miller, even if you like him, probably tops out at like, Danny Granger level. Personally, I don't even necessarily see him being that good, or at least I think he's less likely to be that good than some of y'all apparently do.

Amen could be a "Derrick Rose's MVP season" type of player if he reaches his potential. OR he could be a total bust if he never learns to shoot at all. Or anything in between, depending on how much his shot develops.

It's about how much you value upside versus floor. If you just want a safe pick who's going to be a good shooter in the NBA but doesn't have superstar potential, sure, go for Miller. He might even get into an all-star game or two if he really maximizes his potential. But for me, if I'm going for the safer pick, I don't even go for Miller, I go for Jarace Walker.

I can see the argument for Miller at like 5 or 6 if you're not bothered by the off-the-court stuff (I am bothered by it). I personally wouldn't go higher than that even without the recent issues.

 

1. Wemby
2. Miller
3. Amen
4. Scoot
5. Ausur

Has been for months.

DD

 

Certain somebody who is

1. Ready to play, ready body
2. High NBA IQ, good acumen
3. Versatile defender and decent Offense
4. Coachable and diligent, good work ethic
5. Good character, not having a history of being a knucklehead, idiot, mentally unstable.
Someone who is not known for entitlement.

 

1. wembenyama
2. scoot henderson
3.fire silas
4.fire silas
5.fire silas

 

How can he be worse than Jabari when he hasn't played one NBA game?

Oh, he is a worse college player.... that explains the bias.

 

I think that's overly high on him, He's never even played at a college level, what we've seen of him might as well be film from the YMCA. It's hard to say what will happen to a guy who flat out can't shoot the ball when he's facing even halfway competent competition.

Personally I don't really want anything to do with Amen or Scoot for the same reason, having a guy who isn't a center that has to have the ball in their hands to have any impact on the game because they make Russell Westbrook look like Ray Allen....that's a significant liability.

Obviously they could both learn how to shoot and become phenomenal players, but it's a significant risk.

 

My thing is, how can we know if we're over/undervaluing Amen when all we have to go on is OTE and HS?

OTE is for 16-20 year olds, is played like AAU ball, and gives us very little to go on, other than glossy highlight tapes. And it's not like Amen's dominating either, him and his brother put up 16/6/6 lines against younger/worse players, where most of their drives go uncontested. Then you have someone like Dominick Barlow who was also a high 4* star prospect out of HS who went to OTE and put up better numbers, and went undrafted last year.

Amen will never be able to shoot. He's a great athlete who can handle, pass and defend -- all of which are valuable. But his J is so broken that we're looking at a guy who's more likely to be a smaller Ben Simmons, or a more explosive Evan Turner than a superstar. And since he won't be able to play off the ball, and his on-ball value drops a ton in the NBA without a functional J, what do you have exactly?

 

Wemby that’s it, that’s the list @J.R. @Jontro @RasaqBoi

 

Amen.

You heard Mr. Ferntits. Pray for Victor.
Not pray for Brandon. Not pray for Scooter. Not pray for Whitmore. Not pray for a Thompson twin. Not pray for Jarace.



1. Victor
2. Victor
3. Victor
4. Victor
5. Miller

Victor or bust. I’m trading/shopping the pick otherwise.

 

Going the OTE route was not the best decision for either of the Thompson's. But those 1% athlete PG's who cant shoot 3's initially actually have a good track record of high end success. Prime D Rose, Westbrook, D Fox, Ja Morant, J Wall. At minimum all stars. a couple maxxed out at MVP level.

We cant gauge everything about his game due the league he plays in. What we can gauge is his reported 46 - 48 inch vertical. Top 1% speed. 7 foot wingspan. Great handle, great court vision, and potentially great defense.

You may be right that his shot may never come around. But even without a shot this kid may have the highest upside in this draft outside of Wemby. Or he could bust lol. He's the most intriguing player in this draft IMO.

 

We all know Wembanyama is #1, so i'll list my current 2-6

2. Scoot Henderson - I think he's an offensive engine capable of creating shots for himself and others. The 3pt shot is a concern, but his touch and effectiveness in the midrange has me optimistic. Defensively I think his strength and wingspan allows him to hold his own on the wings.

3. Brandon Miller - The gap between Miller and Henderson is pretty close imo. Miller has looked much better putting the ball on the floor, scoring in the paint, generating FTs, and setting up his teammates. I think his athleticism is underrated and he flashed good defensive instincts.

4. Jarace Walker - Maybe the second highest floor behind Miller. Looks like he can transform your defense and hold his own 1-5. Also like how he's able to find guys off the short roll and high post. The shot is a work in progress, but I think he can get up to 35%, and if that's your 4/5 then thats a positive. The handles I'm less optimistic about, but if they come along, he goes from solid starter to star.

5. Amen Thompson
6. Anthony Black - I flip flop Amen and Anthony all the time, but this is where I'm currently at. They're both 6'7 PGs that will rely on their passing and vision to be effective. Both are weak shooters. Both had issues with turnovers. Anthony looks to be a little more floater reliant. Amen a better layup package, in traffic finisher. Amen is obviously the better athlete.

 

The difference between Amen and those guys is that Rose, Wall and Fox were all Top-7 in their class and proved it at the highest CBB level, while Ja was dominant at a smaller school, and Westbrook was at least a central piece of a top team.

Amen wasn't an elite recruit, and hasn't proven it against any relevant competition since then.

And on the flipside, perimeter players who can't shoot and are expected to "figure it out" as their missing piece don't actually fare well. Between 2014-19, only Ja, Fox and Jaylen Brown have really taken a step forward as lottery picks who couldn't shoot -- 19/22 guys who fit that description never panned out, largely because their shooting (Josh Jackson, Mudiay, DSJ, Kris Dunn, Culver, Ntilikina, Elfrid Payton, the list goes on)

 

How many of those guys were as elite of an athlete as Amen Thompson though? This guy would immediately be right up there with the absolute best athletes in the NBA. He might even be the best athlete in the NBA, except that he's in the same draft class with "unicorn" Wemby. We're talking about a guy with Michael Jordan-type measurable physical tools, and that's not an exaggeration.

Going to repeat it once more: If this kid was playing in a top college program and averaging 20 and 8 with 35% shooting from 3 he would be the consensus #1 pick in almost any draft class. The only reason he's not at that level as a prospect is the lack of a jump shot plus playing in OTE. He's obviously not the #1 pick, nor even the #2 pick this year, but he is a very good prospect. This is an excellent draft class even without Wemby.