Here's how the season is going to go down. Rockets will win a few more games and end up with the 3rd worst record behind Detroit and San Antonio. The league will then decide that the worst team this year will get the #1 overall pick and it goes to the Spurs.
Huh? You can't aggregate odds. It's 14% plain and simple every year for each of the worst 3 teams. It could go 50 years without the worst actually getting the #1 pick or it could happen many years in a row. At the end of the day it's 14%, there is no magic surrounding this value. I hope we get it but there is an 86% chance of not getting it, imho odds too low to sacrifice entire seasons for. Cohesion, team culture and players desire to join your team are all damaged for years.
Pray for Wemby...his 3pt shot is BROKEN lololololololol and hes not even hit that Lucas 3pt practice... he gonna shoot 15% on his 3pt when those 2 meet lolololol
Would it shock your conscience if i said yes? List of Losers: The Spurs this year The Rockets the last 3 years Jim Boeheim lately. Donald Trump in 2020 Hillary Clinton in the EC Eric Trump. Eric Gordon with the Clippers San Diego Clippers. Clippers vs. coal powered ships
14% chance just seems so little. Please, please, please let the luck finally be with us. The last team I want to see get that lucky draw would be the Lakers, if they enter the lottery. I'm sure the league would love nothing better though.
Lakers are now a powerhouse and their pick belongs to NO. Even if the Rox dont get no 1 theres lots of talents that can help the Rox like Brandon Miller,Scoot, Whitmore, Anthony Black etc Rox are missing that Paolo Banchero type of player to build around.
My absolute biggest fear of getting Wemby is that he's going to be in the Bruno Fernando role with KPj having him as a ****ing lob threat.
That's your only fear? And not that every single player at his height has had their careers cut short due to injury?
One of the problems with this statement is that the sample size is so small. There have been very few NBA players of Wemby's height at all. By my count, there have only been 14 guys 7'4" or taller. Of those guys, most of them just didn't have the basketball talent to cut it for a long career, so we never got to find out how they would hold up. Only 9 guys that height in NBA history played more than 100 games. Of those 9, most of them were still not that talented at any point in their careers. Lots of guys like Manute Bol, Chuck Nevitt, players bouncing around the league getting very limited minutes for a number of years. The only two guys that height who you'd really consider to be in the vicinity of the talent level people are talking about with Wemby (if it ends up being true) would both be former Rockets, Yao Ming and Ralph Sampson. So my overall point is, I would consider two things: 1) The sample size of players this tall who ever played heavy minutes is very small. Too small to draw firm conclusions, in my opinion. 2) Rockets fans are probably uniquely biased about this and unusually worried about it because we've had crap luck in drafting two of these guys who didn't work out. But let's be clear: Two injury busts does not prove it has to happen. Lots of players of all different sizes bounce out of the league due to injury. The risks are probably higher with a very tall player, but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen, or necessarily even that it's more likely than not.
I thought the lotto picks only went to the bottom 14 teams. I didn't know they could be acquired by another team before the lotto.
Not really dude..we're talking about maybe at the most 10 more wins on the season with maximum effort and overachievement. Be realistic. What sacrifice is that? We suck. We're in a full blown rebuild. All teams go through this. Despite it, Harden is seriously considering a return. The real sacrifice is using some of our players or picks to trade for another all star to pair with Harden and paying both of them tons of money as they age into their late 30s giving us maybe a 2 year window to win and watching our young guys blossom in their primes elsewhere while we have to start a new rebuild all over again. Is that worth a sacrifice? Not to me. For 30 year old LeBron, sure, but not 34 year old Harden. I bet Harden never even considers a return if we're not in the Wemby running. That's what 1 player can do for your team. If we don't get him, we still have a chance at a better player than at 12th pick for example because we would still be in the lottery...i mean unless you want to trade all our assets and young guys for the Kevin Martins of the world so we can battle fight our way to play-in tourneys and spin the mediocrity treadmill for years?
That too. Not sure why everyone gets so upset when people bring that extremely important fact up. Look at Zion.
3 years, last place. No improvement at all. In fact we are worse today than when we started the re-build. You really think this isn't damaging the entire franchise for a tiny 14% chance? Damaging morale, damaging cohesion, damaging player development of our existing #2 and #3 picks? Also damaging Eason and Sengun? OKC same situation, now pulling out of it. Orlando same thing. They are getting better, we aren't. I would add 10 more wins and improving our high draft picks plus establishing a high quality team culture. Also those wins would barely hurt us. 14% to like 7 or 8%. All this misery for a few pingpong balls. Pitiful. Eric Gordon said it best when interviewed about the team when asked if the rebuild is yielding improved players. He said NOPE, no improvement. The tank is the primary reason for that, 3 years.
If the Rockets draft Victor and i dont get a picture of him with Hakeem, Sampson, Yao, Elvin Hayes, & Mutombo all together I will be sad.
@SuperKev No. I don't. It's a long process. Look how long the Lakers were bad after Magic, 3 bad years and then a new coach + Eddie Jones and Ceballos turned them into a 48 win 2nd round team in 1 year. And after Kobe. 27,21,17,26,35,37,Mickey Mouse ring, back to a struggling .500 and thats with Lebron and AD How about the Celtics post Bird? 8 years of losing seasons. Sure they only had 1 losing season post KG/PP/Ray/Rondo but that's because they could afford to "battle fight" because they owned the Nets in a trade that would get them back to contender status though their draft picks. How about the Bulls post MJ? 5 years straight. Post DRose and young Jimmy Butler, 4 years straight being bad, 1 decent and now weak again. How about the Cavs post Lebron the first time? 4 years in a row. Post LeBron 2nd time 3 years in a row and got gifted a young superstar in Spider along with some players we gave away to them that should have come here. They ended up with Allen and Lavert, we ended up with Oladipo's garbage ass and that was a try and win move that set us back but set Cleveland on the right path. That's what shortsighted moves do. Set you back. How about the Mavs post DIrk? 3 years in a row until their 2nd year drafted player goes Super Saiyan. Pels post AD, got Zion and got good players in Ingram, CJ, Jonas, Herb Jones..welp.. they're hitting 5 years in a row with only 30 win seasons. Many more examples with maybe in recent memory only the heat and Spurs until this year staying afloat post star departure. The fact is the loss of a HOF great is felt and always ends up in a full blown rebuild that takes no less than 3 years, often longer if your drafts are weak. The fastest way back to where we were is drafting the right guy. The past 2 drafts were not very strong, but if Pop turned into a tank commander for this draft, then you know it's good because the last time they did it was for a guy that helped them win and contend for 2 decades straight. 14% is a hard way to look at it. I just did a simulator and as usual none of the worst teams get a good pick, Houston drops to 4. Det drops to 5, SA drops to 6 and Charlotte drops to 7 leaving Orlando to move up 2 spots to #3, Indiana moving up 4 spots to #2 and Chicago moving up 6 spots to win the lottery. Every time i simulate, it's something like that and yet in real life, there hasn't been a crazy jump up since this started. Did it again, NO wins via LA's pick which moved up 13 spots lol, while Houston drops to 4 and Det at 5. This stuff just doesn't happen.
