Tim Duncan in his prime averaged around 22/12. So yeah, Tim Duncan who could shoot a 3 would be “great.”
So great to see him turning the corner. I believe he’s figured it out. That’s Turner and co that allowed him to drop that 30 bomb
he’s the 2nd pick in the draft. It’s OK to have high expectations even if they are most likely unachievable.
maybe we can start with great defense. I watch every game and keep hearing about it but only see it in flashes.
I wondered the same thing since that was what I was calling out before we even drafted him. He is a 6'10 PF with a high release point. If he chooses to rise up and shoot or go for a midrange turnaround, realistically who is going to stop him?
His coach wanting the #1 pick. This is the stuff that made him a better prospect than Paolo in a lot of peoples eyes. We'll see next year.
If you look at the recent history of the draft, you will see that the third pick gives you maybe a 40 to 50% chance of landing a guy who will at some point in his career be an all-star, and maybe a third of those guys (about 15% of all #3 picks) will be perennial all-stars throughout most of their healthy prime years. On the flip side, a number of #3 picks, maybe about the same as the number who become perennial all-stars (around 15%) become total busts who only keep getting chances because they got drafted so high. They're at best bench players in the NBA, at worst they're a total negative to even have on the floor and end up out of the league within about 5 years. All the rest are basically in the range of "solid starter" for at least some portion of their career. The median outcome overall is probably a guy who is a starter in the NBA for 10+ years, but either never makes the all-star game, or maybe sneaks into one or two at his absolute peak. So that's the bar you have to reach to have a successful #3 pick, IMO. Talking about 22/12/5 or whatever, if you're talking about being that good year in and year out, that's in that highest tier, the top 15% or so of #3 picked players I talked about. It's getting an amazing value out of the pick. If you come in expecting that to be the outcome you're setting yourself up for disappointment.
Jabari becoming a better shooter will open up so many other parts of his game. Fact is if defenders are afraid of his shot they will play him differently allowing him to drive by guys.
Jabari's most realistic offensive peak is something Kawhi- like, where his handle is good enough to take a few dribbles to get to your spots, rise up, and hit at a great clip. He's a bit too hunched over for me to bet on him developing the handle and then moves to get to a level approaching Kawhi, but it's possible. Right now he needs to be a 3 point shooting big, so hopefully he regains his shot/confidence over the offseason.
So can we at least now stop wondering why he was picked 3rd? Pretty obvious what scouts saw in him. A switchable big that could turn into someone that contributes offensively and stretch the floor. Could he become an elite all NBA player? I mean that's unlikely, that's unlikely for nearly every player that enters into the league...but I think his floor is good, I think even if you get the worst version of Jabari, a switchable big that can stretch the floor, that's still a coveted player that isn't just out there every draft or every FA class to pick up. If HE does continue to work on his handle and does start hitting turn around middies? Well, then his ceiling becomes MUCH higher. That is the difference between him (Chet and Paolo also to be fair) and Ivey who is not that rare of a player. Every year you get athletic guards going top 5. All those 3 guys of this last draft were rare prototypes and thats why you take them and roll the dice on them.
I don't agree with that approach. The goal of the draft isn't to draft rare prototypes, but to find the player that will best help your team win. The draft can be a real crapshoot. With today's league being more perimeter focused guards might have a higher probably of success than unicorns. The reason why Paolo, Holmgren, and Smith went top 3 last year was simply because the guard prospects weren't that strong. If Scoot Henderson were in last year's draft there's no way you would pick all three over him. Scoot would probably go #1. Below is a list of every guard that was picked in the top 5 for the past five drafts. None of them are rare prototypes but that is an extremely talented group of players already. Jaden Ivey Cade Cunningham? (Plays SG for the Pistons) Jalen Green Jalen Suggs Anthony Edwards LaMelo Ball Ja Morant Darius Garland Trae Young
Rockets finishing in close (0-3 feet) 1. KJ Martin (79.4%) 2. Jabari Smith (72.3%) None others over 70% Considering that was his weakest area entering the NBA, it is at least a good sign that he has addressed it. Let's see how the last 15 games play out for his supposed strengths (shooting) after last night's game. If that didn't give him a confidence boost, then what will??
Out of all these guys you named only Two guy (Ja and Trae) has proven to be an all-nba type of player. Edwards might get there next year. I do not agree at all with this guards always first approach, especially when you look at the last champs and MVPs. I keep telling yall, size will ALWAYS matter in this sport. The majority of MVPs have been forwards and bigs. Nearly every NBA team in history has an all-star big man on the roster. I am not downplaying the role of a guard but having size and length matters a crap ton in this sport, always will, just like being able to hit will always matter in baseball, having speed will always matter in the NFL, in basketball, size is the thing. I would not argue that big man bust more, what I would say is that size is SO valuable that teams always hope to take a guy like Thabeet or Tyrus Thomas or Wiseman and make it work. (We can fix him!) while being a top drafted guard means you already have skill. You can't be a top 5 prospect at 6'3 and not be able to dribble or shoot...BUT you can be 6'11 and can't shoot or dribble and still get drafted top 5. I mean look at Mobley, his entire offensive scouting report was "Maybe one day he'll be able to shoot...you're very fortunate if he learns how to dribble." So basically, the bigger and longer you are the lower the bar is for you. If you are a guard you NEED to know how to dribble or shoot unless you are overcompensating in some other area, like Lonzo's size and perceived playmaking ability.
"Jabari can't dribble" is clearly an overstatement by those who want to paint him as some kind of stiff. He definitely can dribble adequately. If you watch his high school tapes, he had pretty good handles when he was a little shorter. At his height, his dribbling isn't as tight as those 6'5 guards. And he is not as smooth as some uber-athletic NBA players. So he's not going to beat you with some fancy drive to the basket. But he has adequate handles and speed to go straight line when there's an opening. And if his shots fall consistently, he will have more open driving opportunities. What I was glad to see last night was his ability to do what he did so well in college -- a one or two dribble side move to get his shot off. With his height, that shot will always be there on single coverage.
