If the drop off from 4-5 is huge, why would we increase our odds to get a pick worse than 4 by winning more games?
I don't think the dropoff from 4-5 is consequential in this draft. The top 2 are as close to surefire stars as you're going find, then like 3 through 9 or so are all dudes with potential but big questions. I don't really care where we land in the draft if it's not #1 or #2, personally. Guys like Miller (who I would also totally understand not taking due to off the court stuff) and Amen are interesting prospects but I'm not going to bet the farm on any of the guys in that range becoming all-stars.
lol I just learned victor is shooting 28% from the 3 point range on the season on the european short 3 lolololololol https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wembavi01.html
I will admit, was watching a lot of video of Jarace Walker last night and liked what I saw. Not anywhere near the level of the top 2 and not going to transform the franchise, but I think he'd be the best consolation prize
Unfortunately this is also incorrect. If you have a large enough sample size, say 100 or even 50 drafts with those odds, then yes 1/7 of those should have the worst team get the No. 1 pick. However, there is no reason why that should occur in a sample size of 7 drafts or say even 25 drafts.
Just because the worst record hasn't won the lottery yet doesn't mean lowering your odds is a good idea.
this is why winning both SA games was dumb AF. them and DET may not win another game rest of the season, pushing us from guaranteed top 5 pick to top 7
Jarace can fit right into the rotation and help next year, he’s NBA ready … plays defense, moves the rock, is a tripe threat offensively, plays winning basketball. If we fall to 3 or lower he’s the guy imo.
Nah, we are naturally bad enough not to use those tactics, that was a trash move by SA imo. As long as we are bottom 3 I’m good.
We would also have to win another game since the Spurs are still behind us in the standings. Realistically though, neither us, Detroit, nor San Antonio are likely to go on a what, 16, 17 game losing streak? That's very rare in the NBA. For the Pistons, it would give them one of the top 5 longest losing streaks in league history, for the Spurs it would put them in the top 20 I believe. I don't think it really matters that much though. The only surefire transformational talents are the top 2, like we discussed. Anywhere from 3-7 we'd still be getting a really good prospect but not anywhere near the level of Wemby or Scoot. I do have my personal favorite among that group (Walker) but I won't pretend it's extremely obvious and clear that he's better than guys like Miller, Whitmore, the Thompson twins, etc. Realistically the main effect of dropping to third "worst" in the tanking "competition" is it moves our highest pick odds from #5 to #6. Doesn't change our chances at the top 2 and the odds of ending up at #7 are low. I think there's probably still a pretty interesting prospect (or more than one) available at #6 in this class so I'm not too worried about it. We could possibly also trade other assets to move up a slot or two if there's a guy the front office is really sold on outside the top 2. TL;DR don't worry too much about it, we have bottom 3 basically locked up at this point.
Yeah he's not coming to Houston and i'm not really bothered by it. It's hard to swallow pills for unicorn gang but he'll spend more time in hospital beds than in basketball court. We need Amen or Scoot.
